IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v17y2024i10p442-d1489935.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the Impact of Federal Reserve Policies on Equity Market Valuations: An Instrumental Variables Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos J. Rincon

    (Department of Finance, St. Petersburg School of Economics and Management, HSE University, Kantemi-rovskaya Ulitsa 3, Lit. A, 194100 Saint Petersburg, Russia)

  • Darko B. Vukovic

    (Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijic” SASA, Djure Jaksica 9, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
    International Laboratory for Finance and Financial Markets, Faculty of Economics, People’s Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), 6 Miklukho-Maklaya str., 117198 Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of Central Bank interventions on the pricing dynamics of select stock markets. The research utilizes the instrumental variables three-stage least square (3SLS) model approach. It analyses the effects of variations in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet size across three distinct intervention scenarios: the 2008–2013 Great Recession, the 2020–2021 COVID-19 pandemic periods, and an overarching analysis spanning these timelines. Our methodology includes estimations of the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE), and the results are robust under the two-step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Our findings indicate that changes in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet correlate significantly with the pricing of principal U.S. equity market indices. This correlation reflects a time-dependent effect emanating from the Fed’s balance sheet expansion, marking a growing divergence between the adaptability of pricing mechanisms in equity and debt markets. Notably, the Federal Reserve’s interventions during the COVID-19 crisis are associated with an increase of approximately 0.0403 basis points per billion in treasury yields. This research makes a significant contribution to the understanding of financial asset pricing, particularly by elucidating the extent to which interventions in government debt securities engender price distortions in certain equity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos J. Rincon & Darko B. Vukovic, 2024. "Assessing the Impact of Federal Reserve Policies on Equity Market Valuations: An Instrumental Variables Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-36, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:10:p:442-:d:1489935
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/17/10/442/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/17/10/442/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acharya, Sushant & Bengui, Julien, 2018. "Liquidity traps, capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 276-298.
    2. Peersman, Gert & Rüth, Sebastian K. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2021. "The interplay between oil and food commodity prices: Has it changed over time?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. F. M. Fisher, 1970. "Simultaneous Equations Estimation: The State of the Art," Working papers 55, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    4. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Broadstock, David C. & Filis, George, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: New evidence from the United States and China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 417-433.
    6. Stefania D’Amico & Tim Seida, 2024. "Unexpected Supply Effects of Quantitative Easing and Tightening," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(658), pages 579-613.
    7. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    8. Hausman, Jerry A & Newey, Whitney K & Taylor, William E, 1987. "Efficient Estimation and Identification of Simultaneous Equation Models with Covariance Restrictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 849-874, July.
    9. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    10. Cochrane, John H., 2017. "The new-Keynesian liquidity trap," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-63.
    11. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    12. Rocheteau, Guillaume & Wright, Randall & Xiaolin Xiao, Sylvia, 2018. "Open market operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 114-128.
    13. Chen, Wang & Hamori, Shigeyuki & Kinkyo, Takuji, 2014. "Macroeconomic impacts of oil prices and underlying financial shocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-12.
    14. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos J. Rincon, 2024. "Equity Market Pricing and Central Bank Interventions: A Panel Data Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Measuring the Signaling Effect of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme at the Effective Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 87084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Renne, Jean-Paul, 2016. "A tractable interest rate model with explicit monetary policy rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(3), pages 873-887.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
    5. Prakash Chakraborty & Kiseop Lee, 2022. "Bond Prices Under Information Asymmetry and a Short Rate with Instantaneous Feedback," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 613-634, June.
    6. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742.
    7. Patrick Saart & Jiti Gao & Nam Hyun Kim, 2014. "Semiparametric methods in nonlinear time series analysis: a selective review," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 141-169, March.
    8. Frank De Jong & Joost Driessen & Antoon Pelsser, 2001. "Libor Market Models versus Swap Market Models for Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives: An Empirical Analysis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 5(3), pages 201-237.
    9. João Nunes, 2011. "American options and callable bonds under stochastic interest rates and endogenous bankruptcy," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 283-332, October.
    10. Francesco Casalena, 2024. "Back to normal? Assessing the Effects of the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Tightening," IHEID Working Papers 14-2024, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    11. Mahdavi, Mahnaz, 2008. "A comparison of international short-term rates under no arbitrage condition," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 303-318.
    12. Chen, Bin & Song, Zhaogang, 2013. "Testing whether the underlying continuous-time process follows a diffusion: An infinitesimal operator-based approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 83-107.
    13. Sorwar, Ghulam & Barone-Adesi, Giovanni & Allegretto, Walter, 2007. "Valuation of derivatives based on single-factor interest rate models," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 251-269.
    14. Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin & Zhang, Chen, 2022. "Affine arbitrage-free yield net models with application to the euro debt crisis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 201-220.
    15. Edda Claus & Mardi Dungey, 2015. "Can monetary policy surprise the market?," CAMA Working Papers 2015-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Rehez Ahlip & Laurence A. F. Park & Ante Prodan, 2017. "Pricing currency options in the Heston/CIR double exponential jump-diffusion model," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-30, March.
    17. Spiros H. Martzoukos & Theodore M. Barnhill Jr., 1998. "The Survival Zone For A Bond With Both Call And Put Options Embedded," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 21(4), pages 419-430, December.
    18. Tse, Y.K., 1995. "Interest rate models and option pricing: A sensitivity analysis," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 431-436.
    19. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Park, Joon Y., 2016. "Bandwidth selection and asymptotic properties of local nonparametric estimators in possibly nonstationary continuous-time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 119-138.
    20. Thorsten Moenig, 2021. "Efficient valuation of variable annuity portfolios with dynamic programming," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(4), pages 1023-1055, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:10:p:442-:d:1489935. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.