IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v15y2022i12p603-d1002330.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do the Inward and Outward Foreign Direct Investments Spur Domestic Investment in Bangladesh? A Counterfactual Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Md. Monirul Islam

    (Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University (UrFU), 620078 Yekaterinburg, Russia
    Bangladesh Institute of Governance and Management (BIGM), University of Dhaka (Affiliated), Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh)

  • Mohammad Tareque

    (Bangladesh Institute of Governance and Management (BIGM), University of Dhaka (Affiliated), Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh)

  • Abu N. M. Wahid

    (College of Business, Tennessee State University, Nashville, TN 37203, USA)

  • Md. Mahmudul Alam

    (Economic and Financial Policy Institute, School of Economics, Finance & Banking, University Utara Malaysia, Sintok 06010, Kedah, Malaysia
    Accounting Research Institutes, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Shah Alam 40450, Selangor, Malaysia)

  • Kazi Sohag

    (Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University (UrFU), 620078 Yekaterinburg, Russia)

Abstract

The net contribution of the decomposed measures of foreign direct investment (FDIs), e.g., the inward and outward flows of FDIs, to domestic investment is still inconclusive in the case of underdeveloped and developing countries. The current literature bears testimony to this fact. Hence, this research examines the impact of inward and outward foreign direct investments (FDIs) on the domestic investment in Bangladesh. This study considers annual time series data from 1976 to 2019 and estimates this data property under the augmented ARDL approach to cointegration. In addition, this research employs the dynamic ARDL simulation technique in order to forecast the counterfactual shock of the regressors and their effects on the dependent variable. The results from the augmented ARDL method suggest that the inward FDI has a positive impact on domestic investment, while the outward FDI is inconsequential in both the long run and the short run. Besides, our estimated findings also show the economic growth’s long-run and short-run favorable effects on domestic investment. At the same time, there is no significant impact of real interest rates and institutional quality on domestic investment in the long run or the short run in Bangladesh. In addition, the counterfactual shocks (10% positive and negative) to inward FDI positively impact domestic investment, indicating the crowding-in effect of the inward FDI on the domestic investment in Bangladesh. As the inward FDI flow is a significant determinant for sustained domestic investment in Bangladesh, the policy strategy must fuel the local firms by utilizing cross-border investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Md. Monirul Islam & Mohammad Tareque & Abu N. M. Wahid & Md. Mahmudul Alam & Kazi Sohag, 2022. "Do the Inward and Outward Foreign Direct Investments Spur Domestic Investment in Bangladesh? A Counterfactual Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-22, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:12:p:603-:d:1002330
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/15/12/603/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/15/12/603/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Salim, Ruhul & Yao, Yao & Chen, George & Zhang, Lin, 2017. "Can foreign direct investment harness energy consumption in China? A time series investigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 43-53.
    2. Soren Jordan & Andrew Q. Philips, 2018. "Cointegration testing and dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag modelsJournal: Stata Journal," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 18(4), pages 902-923, December.
    3. Dierk Herzer, 2010. "Outward FDI and economic growth," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(5), pages 476-494, September.
    4. Arndt Christian & Buch Claudia M & Schnitzer Monika E, 2010. "FDI and Domestic Investment: An Industry-Level View," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, July.
    5. Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 665-696.
    6. Cristina Jude, 2019. "Does FDI crowd out domestic investment in transition countries?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 27(1), pages 163-200, January.
    7. Chen, George S. & Yao, Yao & Malizard, Julien, 2017. "Does foreign direct investment crowd in or crowd out private domestic investment in China? The effect of entry mode," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 409-419.
    8. Bee Wah Tan & Soo Khoon Goh & Koi Nyen Wong, 2016. "The effects of inward and outward FDI on domestic investment: evidence using panel data of ASEAN–8 countries," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 717-733, September.
    9. Carvalho, Carlos & Ferrero, Andrea & Nechio, Fernanda, 2016. "Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 208-226.
    10. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    11. Manuel Agosin & Roberto Machado, 2005. "Foreign Investment in Developing Countries: Does it Crowd in Domestic Investment?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 149-162.
    12. Miao Wang, 2010. "Foreign direct investment and domestic investment in the host country: evidence from panel study," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(29), pages 3711-3721.
    13. Miao Miao & Dinkneh Gebre Borojo & Jiang Yushi & Tigist Abebe Desalegn, 2021. "The impacts of Chinese FDI on domestic investment and economic growth for Africa," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1886472-188, January.
    14. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    15. Li, Jian & Strange, Roger & Ning, Lutao & Sutherland, Dylan, 2016. "Outward foreign direct investment and domestic innovation performance: Evidence from China," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1010-1019.
    16. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    17. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "Goodbye Washington Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion? A Review of the World Bank's Economic Growth in the 1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 973-987, December.
    18. Robert McNown & Chung Yan Sam & Soo Khoon Goh, 2018. "Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(13), pages 1509-1521, March.
    19. Kun-Ming Chen & Shu-Fei Yang, 2013. "Impact of Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Domestic R&D Activity: Evidence from Taiwan's Multinational Enterprises in Low-wage Countries," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 17-38, March.
    20. Waqar Ameer & Helian Xu & Kazi Sohag & Syed Hasanat Shah, 2021. "Outflow FDI and Domestic Investment: Aggregated and Disaggregated Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-19, June.
    21. Elheddad, Mohamed, 2019. "Foreign direct investment and domestic investment: Do oil sectors matter? Evidence from oil-exporting Gulf Cooperation Council economies," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 1-12.
    22. Shah, Syed Hasanat & Hasnat, Hafsa & Cottrell, Simon & Ahmad, Mohsin Hasnain, 2020. "Sectoral FDI inflows and domestic investments in Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 96-111.
    23. Özlem Onaran & Engelbert Stockhammer & Klara Zwickl, 2013. "FDI and domestic investment in Germany: crowding in or out?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 429-448, July.
    24. W Hejazi & P Pauly, 2003. "Motivations for FDI and domestic capital formation," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 34(3), pages 282-289, May.
    25. Jai S. Mah, 2012. "Foreign direct investment, labour unionization and income inequality of Korea," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(15), pages 1521-1524, October.
    26. Ivanović, Igor, 2015. "Impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic investment in Republic of Croatia," MPRA Paper 70076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Farla, Kristine & de Crombrugghe, Denis & Verspagen, Bart, 2016. "Institutions, Foreign Direct Investment, and Domestic Investment: Crowding Out or Crowding In?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-9.
    28. Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198759980.
    29. Mr. Ali J Al-Sadiq, 2013. "Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Investment: The Case of Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2013/052, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Sam, Chung Yan & McNown, Robert & Goh, Soo Khoon, 2019. "An augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds test for cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 130-141.
    31. Li, Xiaoying & Liu, Xiaming, 2005. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: An Increasingly Endogenous Relationship," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 393-407, March.
    32. Mihir A. Desai & C. Fritz Foley & James R. Hines Jr., 2005. "Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 11717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Cesare Imbriani & Rosanna Pittiglio & Filippo Reganati, 2011. "Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Performance: the Italian Manufacturing and Services Sectors," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 39(4), pages 369-381, December.
    34. Adams, Samuel, 2009. "Foreign Direct investment, domestic investment, and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 939-949, November.
    35. Jan Hanousek & Anastasiya Shamshur & Jan Svejnar & Jiri Tresl, 2021. "Corruption level and uncertainty, FDI and domestic investment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 52(9), pages 1750-1774, December.
    36. Shiva S. Makki & Agapi Somwaru, 2004. "Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade on Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(3), pages 795-801.
    37. You, Kefei & Solomon, Offiong Helen, 2015. "China's outward foreign direct investment and domestic investment: An industrial level analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 249-260.
    38. Usman Ali & Jian-Jun Wang, 2018. "Does Outbound Foreign Direct Investment Crowd Out Domestic Investment in China? Evidence from Time Series Analysis," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(4), pages 419-433, October.
    39. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert & Wong, Koi Nyen, 2020. "Macroeconomic implications of population aging: Evidence from Japan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    40. Martin S. Feldstein & James R. Hines, Jr. & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1995. "Introduction to "The Effects of Taxation on Multinational Corporations"," NBER Chapters, in: The Effects of Taxation on Multinational Corporations, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. He, Qing & Leung, Pak-Ho & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2013. "Factor-augmented VAR analysis of the monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 88-104.
    42. Herzer, Dierk & Schrooten, Mechthild, 2008. "Outward FDI and domestic investment in two industrialized countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 139-143, April.
    43. Kevin Sylwester, 2005. "Foreign direct investment, growth and income inequality in less developed countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 289-300.
    44. Palle S. Andersen & P. Hainaut, 1998. "Foreign direct investment and employment in the industrial countries," BIS Working Papers 61, Bank for International Settlements.
    45. Ndikumana, Leonce & Verick, Sher, 2008. "The Linkages between FDI and Domestic Investment: Unravelling the Developmental Impact of Foreign Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa," IZA Discussion Papers 3296, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    46. Acemoglu, Daron, 2012. "Introduction to economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 545-550.
    47. repec:bla:devpol:v:26:y:2008:i:6:p:713-726 is not listed on IDEAS
    48. Martin Feldstein & James R. Hines Jr. & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1995. "The Effects of Taxation on Multinational Corporations," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feld95-2, June.
    49. Min, Feng & Wen, Fenghua & Wang, Xiong, 2022. "Measuring the effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on domestic investment in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 395-412.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Safet Kurtović & Nehat Maxhuni & Blerim Halili & Bujar Krasniqi, 2022. "Does outward foreign direct investment crowd in or crowd out domestic investment in central, east and southeast europe countries? an asymmetric approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1419-1444, August.
    2. Nguyen Van Bon, 2021. "Does FDI inflow crowd in private investment? Empirical evidence for the Southeast region of Vietnam from the panel quantile regression approach," HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE - ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE, HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY, vol. 11(2), pages 127-136.
    3. Waqar Ameer & Helian Xu & Kazi Sohag & Syed Hasanat Shah, 2021. "Outflow FDI and Domestic Investment: Aggregated and Disaggregated Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-19, June.
    4. Elheddad, Mohamed, 2019. "Foreign direct investment and domestic investment: Do oil sectors matter? Evidence from oil-exporting Gulf Cooperation Council economies," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 1-12.
    5. Syed Hasanat Shah & Waqar Ameer, 2021. "The impact of outbound foreign direct investment on export and private investment: Comparative analysis of emerging and developed countries," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 674-692, December.
    6. Chen, George S. & Yao, Yao & Malizard, Julien, 2017. "Does foreign direct investment crowd in or crowd out private domestic investment in China? The effect of entry mode," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 409-419.
    7. Teresa Sastre & Laura Heras Recuero, 2019. "Domestic and foreign investment in advanced economies. The role of industry integration," Working Papers 1933, Banco de España.
    8. Van Bon Nguyen, 2021. "The relationship between FDI inflows and private investment in Vietnam: Does institutional environment matter?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1151-1162, January.
    9. Yao Yao & Ruhul Salim, 2020. "Crowds in or crowds out? The effect of foreign direct investment on domestic investment in Chinese cities," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2129-2154, May.
    10. Arndt Christian & Buch Claudia M & Schnitzer Monika E, 2010. "FDI and Domestic Investment: An Industry-Level View," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, July.
    11. Goldbach, Stefan & Nagengast, Arne J. & Steinmüller, Elias & Wamser, Georg, 2019. "The effect of investing abroad on investment at home: On the role of technology, tax savings, and internal capital markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 58-73.
    12. Hahandou Mano, 2024. "Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Private Investment in WAEMU Countries: Crowding-in or Crowding-out?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(3), pages 57-65, May.
    13. Ghazouani, tarek, 2018. "Reexamining the Foreign direct investment, Renewable energy consumption and Economic growth nexus: Evidence from a new Bootstrap ARDL test for Cointegration," MPRA Paper 103348, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Sep 2020.
    14. Azka Amin & Sofia Anwar & Xi‐Hua Liu, 2022. "Outward foreign direct investment and economic growth in Romania: Evidence from non‐linear ARDL approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 665-677, January.
    15. Hieu Thanh Nguyen & Hiep Ngoc Luu & Ngoc Ha Do, 2021. "The dynamic relationship between greenfield investments, cross-border M&As, domestic investment and economic growth in Vietnam," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1065-1089, November.
    16. Pravakar Sahoo & Ashwani Bishnoi, 2021. "IMPACT OF OUTWARD FDI: Evidence from Emerging Economies for Policy," IEG Working Papers 433, Institute of Economic Growth.
    17. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    18. You, Kefei & Solomon, Offiong Helen, 2015. "China's outward foreign direct investment and domestic investment: An industrial level analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 249-260.
    19. Mr. Ali J Al-Sadiq, 2013. "Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Investment: The Case of Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2013/052, International Monetary Fund.
    20. repec:hal:cepnwp:hal-01492373 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Yassin Elshain Yahia & Liu Haiyun & Muhammad Asif Khan & Sayyed Sadaqat Hussain Shah & Mollah Aminul Islam, 2018. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Domestic Investment: Evidence from Sudan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 1-10.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:12:p:603-:d:1002330. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.