IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v13y2020i12p331-d466024.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predictions of Crowdfunding Campaign Success: The Influence of First Impressions on Accuracy and Positivity

Author

Listed:
  • Etienne Schraven

    (Department of Management and Organization, School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

  • Elco van Burg

    (Department of Management and Organization, School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

  • Marco van Gelderen

    (Department of Management and Organization, School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

  • Enno Masurel

    (Department of Management and Organization, School of Business and Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

Abstract

Crowdfunding has quickly gained popularity in recent years, providing an additional way for entrepreneurial individuals and organizations (creators) to attract funds for their projects. Scholars have been interested in predicting the success of crowdfunding campaigns, by relating campaign characteristics to the actual success of these campaigns. We take one step back by studying the cognitive processes of the crowd. This paper uses an experimental approach to establish whether participants’ predictions on the success of crowdfunding campaigns based on first impressions are as positive and as accurate as those derived from more thorough analyses. We employ a two-study replication design, in which individuals estimate the success of crowdfunding campaigns in two conditions: with limited time and with unlimited time. The results show that prediction accuracy in both conditions is equal, yet shorter time availability results in assessments that are more negative. We discuss implications for creators and for funders.

Suggested Citation

  • Etienne Schraven & Elco van Burg & Marco van Gelderen & Enno Masurel, 2020. "Predictions of Crowdfunding Campaign Success: The Influence of First Impressions on Accuracy and Positivity," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:13:y:2020:i:12:p:331-:d:466024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/13/12/331/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/13/12/331/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rajagopal, 2014. "The Human Factors," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Architecting Enterprise, chapter 9, pages 225-249, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Massimo G. Colombo & Chiara Franzoni & Cristina Rossi–Lamastra, 2015. "Internal Social Capital and the Attraction of Early Contributions in Crowdfunding," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 39(1), pages 75-100, January.
    3. Garry Bruton & Susanna Khavul & Donald Siegel & Mike Wright, 2015. "New Financial Alternatives in Seeding Entrepreneurship: Microfinance, Crowdfunding, and Peer–to–Peer Innovations," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 39(1), pages 9-26, January.
    4. Armin Schwienbacher, 2018. "Entrepreneurial risk-taking in crowdfunding campaigns," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 843-859, December.
    5. Lennart Ante & Philipp Sandner & Ingo Fiedler, 2018. "Blockchain-Based ICOs: Pure Hype or the Dawn of a New Era of Startup Financing?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, November.
    6. Hemer, Joachim, 2011. "A snapshot on crowdfunding," Working Papers "Firms and Region" R2/2011, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    7. Susana Bernardino & J. Freitas Santos, 2020. "Crowdfunding: An Exploratory Study on Knowledge, Benefits and Barriers Perceived by Young Potential Entrepreneurs," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-24, April.
    8. Mollick, Ethan, 2014. "The dynamics of crowdfunding: An exploratory study," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16.
    9. Thomas H. Allison & Blakley C. Davis & Jeremy C. Short & Justin W. Webb, 2015. "Crowdfunding in a Prosocial Microlending Environment: Examining the Role of Intrinsic versus Extrinsic Cues," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 39(1), pages 53-73, January.
    10. repec:cup:judgdm:v:10:y:2015:i:1:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Anton Miglo, 2020. "Crowdfunding in a Competitive Environment," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-38, February.
    12. Magdalena Cholakova & Bart Clarysse, 2015. "Does the Possibility to Make Equity Investments in Crowdfunding Projects Crowd Out Reward–Based Investments?," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 39(1), pages 145-172, January.
    13. Saif Ullah & Yulin Zhou, 2020. "Gender, Anonymity and Team: What Determines Crowdfunding Success on Kickstarter," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-26, April.
    14. Matthew Rabin & Joel L. Schrag, 1999. "First Impressions Matter: A Model of Confirmatory Bias," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 37-82.
    15. Park, Sangwon & Nicolau, Juan L., 2015. "Asymmetric effects of online consumer reviews," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 67-83.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Agnieszka Szewczyk & Zbigniew Stempnakowski, 2021. "Social Energy as the Driving Force behind Crowdfunding—Analysis and Classification of Selected Attributes," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-32, September.
    2. Maurer, Joshua D. & Creek, Steven A. & Allison, Thomas H. & Bendickson, Joshua S. & Sahaym, Arvin, 2024. "Getting to know someone in ten seconds: Social role theory and perceived personality in entrepreneurial pitch videos," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    3. Lingfei Deng & Qiang Ye & DaPeng Xu & Wenjun Sun & Guangxin Jiang, 2022. "A literature review and integrated framework for the determinants of crowdfunding success," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-70, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bagheri, Afsaneh & Chitsazan, Hasti & Ebrahimi, Ashkan, 2019. "Crowdfunding motivations: A focus on donors' perspectives," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 218-232.
    2. Stefania Testa & Paolo Roma & Maria Vasi & Silvano Cincotti, 2020. "Crowdfunding as a tool to support sustainability‐oriented initiatives: Preliminary insights into the role of product/service attributes," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 530-546, February.
    3. Allison, Thomas H. & Davis, Blakley C. & Webb, Justin W. & Short, Jeremy C., 2017. "Persuasion in crowdfunding: An elaboration likelihood model of crowdfunding performance," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 707-725.
    4. Hadar Gafni & Marek Hudon & Anaïs Périlleux, 2021. "Business or Basic Needs? The Impact of Loan Purpose on Social Crowdfunding Platforms," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 173(4), pages 777-793, November.
    5. Matthew Josefy & Thomas J. Dean & Lumina S. Albert & Markus A. Fitza, 2017. "The Role of Community in Crowdfunding Success: Evidence on Cultural Attributes in Funding Campaigns to “Save the Local Theaterâ€," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 41(2), pages 161-182, March.
    6. Friedemann Polzin & Helen Toxopeus & Erik Stam, 2018. "The wisdom of the crowd in funding: information heterogeneity and social networks of crowdfunders," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 251-273, February.
    7. Chan, Ho Fai & Moy, Naomi & Schaffner, Markus & Torgler, Benno, 2021. "The effects of money saliency and sustainability orientation on reward based crowdfunding success," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 443-455.
    8. Carla Martínez-Climent & Ricardo Costa-Climent & Pejvak Oghazi, 2019. "Sustainable Financing through Crowdfunding," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Liu, Aiping & Urquía-Grande, Elena & López-Sánchez, Pilar & Rodríguez-López, Ángel, 2023. "Research into microfinance and ICTs: A bibliometric analysis," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    10. Tanja Jovanović, 2019. "Crowdfunding: What Do We Know So Far?," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(01), pages 1-25, February.
    11. W. Cai & F.H.J. Polzin & F.C. Stam, 2019. "Crowdfunding and Social Capital: A Systematic Literature Review," Working Papers 19-05, Utrecht School of Economics.
    12. Daniela Defazio & Chiara Franzoni & Cristina Rossi-Lamastra, 2021. "How Pro-social Framing Affects the Success of Crowdfunding Projects: The Role of Emphasis and Information Crowdedness," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 171(2), pages 357-378, June.
    13. Felipe, Israel José dos Santos & Mendes-Da-Silva, Wesley & Leal, Cristiana Cerqueira & Braun Santos, Danilo, 2022. "Reward crowdfunding campaigns: Time-to-success analysis," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 214-228.
    14. Hossain Mokter & Oparaocha Gospel Onyema, 2017. "Crowdfunding: Motives, Definitions, Typology and Ethical Challenges," Entrepreneurship Research Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-14, April.
    15. Han Jiang & Zhiyi Wang & Lusi Yang & Jia Shen & Jungpil Hahn, 2021. "How Rewarding Are Your Rewards? A Value-Based View of Crowdfunding Rewards and Crowdfunding Performance," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 45(3), pages 562-599, May.
    16. Andreas Hoegen & Dennis M. Steininger & Daniel Veit, 2018. "How do investors decide? An interdisciplinary review of decision-making in crowdfunding," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 28(3), pages 339-365, August.
    17. Zhang, Haisu & Chen, Weizhi, 2019. "Crowdfunding technological innovations: Interaction between consumer benefits and rewards," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 84, pages 11-20.
    18. Jeremy C. Short & David J. Ketchen Jr. & Aaron F. McKenny & Thomas H. Allison & R. Duane Ireland, 2017. "Research on Crowdfunding: Reviewing the (Very Recent) past and Celebrating the Present," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 41(2), pages 149-160, March.
    19. Berns, John P. & Jia, Yankun & Gondo, Maria, 2022. "Crowdfunding success in sustainability-oriented projects: An exploratory examination of the crowdfunding of 3D printers," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    20. Johannes Wallmeroth & Peter Wirtz & Alexander Peter Groh, 2017. "Institutional Seed Financing, Angel Financing, and Crowdfunding of Entrepreneurial Ventures: A Literature Review," Working Papers hal-01527999, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:13:y:2020:i:12:p:331-:d:466024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.