IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijfss/v7y2019i1p4-d196279.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk Taking and Fiscal Smoothing with Sovereign Wealth Funds in Advanced Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Snorre Lindset

    (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway)

  • Knut Anton Mork

    (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway)

Abstract

In an economy with a sovereign wealth fund (SWF), the government may draw on the fund to supplement other government revenues. If the fund is invested in risky assets, this introduces a new stochastic element into the government’s budget. We analyze the interaction between the draw from and risk taking in the SWF. Using non-expected utility preferences, we distinguish between intended changes and stochastic changes in the SWF draws over time. We show that the desire for smoothness in taxes and public services translates into smoothing of SWF draws and lower risk taking. It can even lead to procyclical rebalancing of the SWF portfolio. Future interest rates are associated with interest-rate risk. We show that this risk may lead to a higher optimal equity share in the SWF portfolio. Policy makers can use the draws from the SWF to smooth over time variation in risk-free rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Snorre Lindset & Knut Anton Mork, 2019. "Risk Taking and Fiscal Smoothing with Sovereign Wealth Funds in Advanced Economies," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:7:y:2019:i:1:p:4-:d:196279
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7072/7/1/4/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7072/7/1/4/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    2. Abel, Andrew B, 1990. "Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 38-42, May.
    3. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007. "Portfolio Choice over the Life‐Cycle when the Stock and Labor Markets Are Cointegrated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2123-2167, October.
    4. van den Bremer, Ton & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Wills, Samuel, 2016. "The Elephant In The Ground: Managing Oil And Sovereign Wealth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 113-131.
    5. repec:fth:harver:1421 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    7. Lukasz Rachel & Thomas Smith, 2015. "Secular Drivers of the Global Real Interest Rate," Discussion Papers 1605, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    8. Carroll, Christopher D. & Jeanne, Olivier, 2009. "A tractable model of precautionary reserves, net foreign assets, or sovereign wealth funds," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    9. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2011. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for Resource‐Rich Developing Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 1-30, March.
    10. Dahlquist, Magnus & Odegaard, Bernt Arne, 2018. "A Review of Norges Bank's Active Management of the Government Pension Fund Global," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2018/1, University of Stavanger.
    11. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
    12. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1989. "Portfolio choice with non-expected utility in continuous time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 313-317, October.
    13. Andrea Paltrinieri & Flavio Pichler, 2013. "Asset Management Issues in Sovereign Wealth Funds: An Empirical Analysis," Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions, in: Joseph Falzon (ed.), Bank Performance, Risk and Securitization, chapter 9, pages 212-234, Palgrave Macmillan.
    14. van Wijnbergen, Sweder J G, 1984. "The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease after All?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 41-55, March.
    15. Filipa Sá & Francesca Viani, 2013. "Shifts in Portfolio Preferences of International Investors: An Application to Sovereign Wealth Funds," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 868-885, November.
    16. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    17. Mervyn King & David Low, 2014. "Measuring the ''World'' Real Interest Rate," NBER Working Papers 19887, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    19. Alberto Giovannini & Philippe Weil, 1989. "Risk Aversion and Intertemporal Substitution in the Capital Asset Pricing Model," NBER Working Papers 2824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-286, April.
    21. Sundaresan, Suresh M, 1989. "Intertemporally Dependent Preferences and the Volatility of Consumption and Wealth," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(1), pages 73-89.
    22. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    23. Paul A. Samuelson, 2011. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & Edward O Thorp & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 31, pages 465-472, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    24. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    25. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942.
    26. Alhashel, Bader, 2015. "Sovereign Wealth Funds: A literature review," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-13.
    27. Shai Bernstein & Josh Lerner & Antoinette Schoar, 2013. "The Investment Strategies of Sovereign Wealth Funds," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(2), pages 219-238, Spring.
    28. Paul Collier & Jan Willem Gunning, 2005. "Asset Policies During an Oil Windfall: Some Simple Analytics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(10), pages 1401-1415, October.
    29. Dreassi, Alberto & Miani, Stefano & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2017. "Sovereign pension and social security reserve funds: A portfolio analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 43-53.
    30. Sofia A Johan & April Knill & Nathan Mauck, 2013. "Determinants of sovereign wealth fund investment in private equity vs public equity," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 44(2), pages 155-172, February.
    31. Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-543, June.
    32. Robert E. Hall, 2016. "The Role of the Growth of Risk-Averse Wealth in the Decline of the Safe Real Interest Rate," NBER Working Papers 22196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Luis M. Viceira, 2001. "Optimal Portfolio Choice for Long‐Horizon Investors with Nontradable Labor Income," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 433-470, April.
    34. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    35. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    37. Iva Petrova & Jukka Pihlman & Mr. Peter J Kunzel & Miss Yinqiu Lu, 2011. "Investment Objectives of Sovereign Wealth Funds: A Shifting Paradigm," IMF Working Papers 2011/019, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mork, Knut Anton & Harang, Fabian Andsem & Trønnes, Haakon Andreas & Bjerketvedt, Vegard Skonseng, 2023. "Dynamic spending and portfolio decisions with a soft social norm," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Alfonso A. Irarrazabal & Lin Ma & Juan Carlos Parra-Alvarez, 2023. "Optimal asset allocation for commodity sovereign wealth funds," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 471-495, March.
    3. Basu, Rahul, 2020. "Intergenerational Equity, the Public Trust Doctrine, Norway and North Sea Oil," MPRA Paper 102856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Knut Anton Mork & Vegard Skonseng Bjerketvedt, 2021. "Soft habits," Working Paper Series 18921, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    5. Knut Anton Mork & Haakon Andreas Trønnes & Vegard Skonseng Bjerketvedt, "undated". "Capital preservation and current spending with Sovereign Wealth Funds and Endowment Funds: A simulation study," Working Paper Series 19222, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    6. Knut Anton Mork & Fabian Andsem Harang & Haakon Andreas Tr{o}nnes & Vegard Skonseng Bjerketvedt, 2022. "Dynamic spending and portfolio decisions with a soft social norm," Papers 2212.10053, arXiv.org.
    7. Pablo Garmendia & Gabriela Topa & Teresa Herrador & Montserrat Hernández, 2019. "Does Death Anxiety Moderate the Adequacy of Retirement Savings? Empirical Evidence from 40-Plus Clients of Spanish Financial Advisory Firms," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-13, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    2. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887, Elsevier.
    3. Knut Anton Mork & Vegard Skonseng Bjerketvedt, 2021. "Soft habits," Working Paper Series 18921, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    4. Zhou, Y., 2014. "Essays on habit formation and inflation hedging," Other publications TiSEM 4886da12-1b84-4fd9-aa07-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Mork, Knut Anton & Harang, Fabian Andsem & Trønnes, Haakon Andreas & Bjerketvedt, Vegard Skonseng, 2023. "Dynamic spending and portfolio decisions with a soft social norm," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. John Y. Campbell, 2003. "Two Puzzles of Asset Pricing and Their Implications for Investors," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 47(1), pages 48-74, March.
    7. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    8. Robert Östling & Erik Lindqvist & David Cesarini & Joseph Briggs, 2016. "Wealth, Portfolio Allocations, and Risk Preference," 2016 Meeting Papers 1089, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Kihlstrom, Richard, 2009. "Risk aversion and the elasticity of substitution in general dynamic portfolio theory: Consistent planning by forward looking, expected utility maximizing investors," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(9-10), pages 634-663, September.
    10. George Chacko & Luis M. Viceira, 2005. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1369-1402.
    11. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    12. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
    13. Knut Anton Mork & Fabian Andsem Harang & Haakon Andreas Tr{o}nnes & Vegard Skonseng Bjerketvedt, 2022. "Dynamic spending and portfolio decisions with a soft social norm," Papers 2212.10053, arXiv.org.
    14. Munk, Claus, 2015. "Financial Asset Pricing Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198716457.
    15. Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2008. "Intertemporal Asset Allocation with Habit Formation in Preferences: An Approximate Analytical Solution," CREATES Research Papers 2008-60, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    16. Garcia, Rene & Renault, Eric & Semenov, Andrei, 2006. "Disentangling risk aversion and intertemporal substitution through a reference level," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 181-193, September.
    17. Julian Thimme, 2017. "Intertemporal Substitution In Consumption: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 226-257, February.
    18. Francisco Gomes & Alexander Michaelides, 2003. "Portfolio Choice With Internal Habit Formation: A Life-Cycle Model With Uninsurable Labor Income Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 729-766, October.
    19. Knut Anton Mork & Haakon Andreas Trønnes & Vegard Skonseng Bjerketvedt, "undated". "Capital preservation and current spending with Sovereign Wealth Funds and Endowment Funds: A simulation study," Working Paper Series 19222, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    20. Roel van Elk & Marc van der Steeg & Dinand Webbink, 2013. "The effects of a special program for multi-problem school dropouts on educational enrolment, employment and criminal behaviour; Evidence from a field experiment," CPB Discussion Paper 241.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:7:y:2019:i:1:p:4-:d:196279. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.