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Applications of Distress Prediction Models: What Have We Learned After 50 Years from the Z-Score Models?

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  • Edward I. Altman

    (Leonard N. Stern School of Business, New York University, New York, NY 10012, USA)

Abstract

Fifty years ago, I published the initial, classic version of the Z-score bankruptcy prediction models. This multivariate statistical model has remained perhaps the most well-known, and more importantly, most used technique for providing an early warning signal of firm financial distress by academics and practitioners on a global basis. It also has been used by scholars as a benchmark of credit risk measurement in countless empirical studies. Practical applications of the Altman Z-score model have also been numerous and can be divided into two main categories: (1) from an external analytical standpoint, and (2) from an internal to the distressed firm viewpoint. This paper discusses a number of applications from the former’s standpoint and in doing so, we hope, also provides a roadmap for extensions beyond those already identified.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward I. Altman, 2018. "Applications of Distress Prediction Models: What Have We Learned After 50 Years from the Z-Score Models?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-15, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:6:y:2018:i:3:p:70-:d:161643
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gilson, Stuart C, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Capital Structure Choice: Evidence from Financially Distressed Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 161-196, March.
    2. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    3. Edward I. Altman & Ben Branch, 2015. "The Bankruptcy System's Chapter 22 Recidivism Problem: How Serious is It?," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 1-26, January.
    4. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    5. Altman, Edward I. & Rijken, Herbert A., 2004. "How rating agencies achieve rating stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2679-2714, November.
    6. Altman, Edward I. & Brenner, Menachem, 1981. "Information Effects and Stock Market Response to Signs of Firm Deterioration," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 35-51, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nora Muñoz-Izquierdo & María-del-Mar Camacho-Miñano & María-Jesús Segovia-Vargas & David Pascual-Ezama, 2019. "Is the External Audit Report Useful for Bankruptcy Prediction? Evidence Using Artificial Intelligence," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Fuentes González, Fabián & Webb, Janette & Sharmina, Maria & Hannon, Matthew & Braunholtz-Speight, Timothy & Pappas, Dimitrios, 2022. "Local energy businesses in the United Kingdom: Clusters and localism determinants based on financial ratios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    3. Vavrek, Roman & Vozárová, Ivana Kravčáková & Kotulič, Rastislav & Adamišin, Peter & Dubravská, Mariana & Ivanková, Viera, 2022. "Assessing the financial health of agricultural enterprises incorporating the spatial dimension," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 25(3), March.
    4. Daniela Rybárová & Helena Majdúchová & Peter Štetka & Darina Luščíková, 2021. "Reliability and Accuracy of Alternative Default Prediction Models: Evidence from Slovakia," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-33, November.
    5. Anna Kania Widiatami & Nanny Dewi Tanzil & Cahya Irawadi & Ahmad Nurkhin, 2020. "Audit Committee¡¯s Role in Moderating the Effect of Financial Distress Towards Going Concern Audit Opinion," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(4), pages 432-442, July.
    6. Mirza, Nawazish & Rahat, Birjees & Naqvi, Bushra & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas, 2023. "Impact of Covid-19 on corporate solvency and possible policy responses in the EU," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 181-190.
    7. Barboza, Flavio & Altman, Edward, 2024. "Predicting financial distress in Latin American companies: A comparative analysis of logistic regression and random forest models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Tomasz Korol, 2019. "Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-15, December.
    9. Ramalingam Shanmugam & Brad Beauvais & Diane Dolezel & Rohit Pradhan & Zo Ramamonjiarivelo, 2024. "The Probability of Hospital Bankruptcy: A Stochastic Approach," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-23, August.

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