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Studying Differing Impacts of Various Monetary Aggregates on the Real Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Romeo Victor Ionescu

    (Department of Administrative Sciences and Regional Studies, Dunarea de Jos University of Galati, 800008 Galati, Romania)

  • Costinela Fortea

    (Department of Business Administration, Dunarea de Jos University of Galati, 800008 Galati, Romania)

  • Monica Laura Zlati

    (Department of Business Administration, Dunarea de Jos University of Galati, 800008 Galati, Romania)

  • Valentin Marian Antohi

    (Department of Business Administration, Dunarea de Jos University of Galati, 800008 Galati, Romania
    Department of Finance, Accounting and Economic Theory, Transilvania University of Brasov, 500036 Brasov, Romania)

Abstract

Since we are living in a time of multiple crises and geopolitical unrest, it is important to look at how monetary aggregates affect the real economy. This will help us figure out how uncertainty affects the economy and come up with more stable financial and monetary policy measures, especially for EU member states that are not in the euro area. This study aims to determine a dynamic structured monetary policy model, using information from the literature and the study of the evolution of financial elements of macroeconomic aggregates in a non-euro area Member State (Romania). The methods consist of an empirical study of causality in the monetary aggregates in the literature and an analytical approach to the consolidation of dynamic databases over a period of 16 years (2007–2022) and its statistical modeling. This research will examine the impact of uncertainty on Romania’s monetary policy over the period and how this uncertainty alters the dependence relationships between monetary policy indicators and derivatives of the GDP deflator. The results of the two-step modeling, respectively, for the periods 2007–2019 and 2007–2022, will highlight via a comparison the vulnerabilities induced by periods of uncertainty and pandemics on the evolution of monetary policy indicators and will be useful to financial decision makers in correcting monetary policy elements based on the vulnerability picture instrumented as a result of analysis and modeling. The novelty of this study lies in the multidisciplinary and dynamic approach to the evolution of monetary policy indicators and the construction of the dynamic structured model, which is a useful tool for assessing the vulnerability status of a EU Member State economy outside the euro area under uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Romeo Victor Ionescu & Costinela Fortea & Monica Laura Zlati & Valentin Marian Antohi, 2023. "Studying Differing Impacts of Various Monetary Aggregates on the Real Economy," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-22, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:11:y:2023:i:4:p:140-:d:1292591
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marco Bassetto & Thomas J. Sargent, 2020. "Shotgun Wedding: Fiscal and Monetary Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 659-690, August.
    2. Lepetit, Antoine & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina, 2022. "The limited power of monetary policy in a pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    3. Brett Fiebiger & Marc Lavoie, 2021. "Central bankers and the rationale for unconventional monetary policies: reasserting, renouncing or recasting monetarism?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 45(1), pages 37-59.
    4. Cagan, Phillip & Gandolfi, Arthur, 1969. "The Lag in Monetary Policy as Implied by the Time Pattern of Monetary Effects on Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 277-284, May.
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