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A Deep Learning Approach to Dynamic Interbank Network Link Prediction

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  • Haici Zhang

    (The Institute for Financial Services Analytics, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, USA)

Abstract

Lehman Brothers’ failure in 2008 demonstrated the importance of understanding interconnectedness in interbank networks. The interbank market plays a significant role in facilitating market liquidity and providing short-term funding for each other to smooth liquidity shortages. Knowing the trading relationship could also help understand risk contagion among banks. Therefore, future lending relationship prediction is important to understand the dynamic evolution of interbank networks. To achieve the goal, we apply a deep learning framework model of interbank lending to an electronic trading interbank network for temporal trading relationship prediction. There are two important components of the model, which are the Graph convolutional network (GCN) and the Long short-term memory (LSTM) model. The GCN and LSTM components together capture the spatial–temporal information of the dynamic network snapshots. Compared with the Discrete autoregressive model and Dynamic latent space model, our proposed model achieves better performance in both the precrisis and the crisis period.

Suggested Citation

  • Haici Zhang, 2022. "A Deep Learning Approach to Dynamic Interbank Network Link Prediction," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:10:y:2022:i:3:p:54-:d:861100
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Linardi, Fernando & Diks, Cees & van der Leij, Marco & Lazier, Iuri, 2020. "Dynamic interbank network analysis using latent space models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
    3. Bräuning, Falk & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2020. "The dynamic factor network model with an application to international trade," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 494-515.
    4. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco J. & Martins, Nuno C., 2009. "Lending relationships in the interbank market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 24-48, January.
    5. Leventides, John & Loukaki, Kalliopi & Papavassiliou, Vassilios G., 2019. "Simulating financial contagion dynamics in random interbank networks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 500-525.
    6. Daniel K. Sewell & Yuguo Chen, 2015. "Latent Space Models for Dynamic Networks," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(512), pages 1646-1657, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shu Takahashi & Kento Yamamoto & Shumpei Kobayashi & Ryoma Kondo & Ryohei Hisano, 2024. "Dynamic Link and Flow Prediction in Bank Transfer Networks," Papers 2409.08718, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.

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