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Contagion accounting

Author

Listed:
  • Aldasoro, Iñaki
  • Hüser, Anne-Caroline
  • Kok, Christoffer

Abstract

We provide a simple and tractable accounting-based stress-testing framework to assess loss dynamics in the banking sector, in a context of leverage targeting. Contagion can occur through direct interbank exposures, and indirect exposures due to overlapping portfolios with the associated price dynamics via fire sales. We apply the framework to three granular proprietary ECB datasets, including an interbank network of 26 large euro area banks as well as their overlapping portfolios of loans, derivatives and securities. A 5 percent shock to the price of assets held in the trading book leads to an initial loss of 30 percent of system equity and an additional loss of 1.3 percent due to fire sales spillovers. Direct interbank contagion is negligible in our analysis. Our findings underscore the importance of accurately estimating the price effects of fire sales. JEL Classification: C63, G01, G18, G21

Suggested Citation

  • Aldasoro, Iñaki & Hüser, Anne-Caroline & Kok, Christoffer, 2020. "Contagion accounting," Working Paper Series 2499, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202499
    Note: 508948
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    contagion; fire sales; interbank networks; overlapping portfolios; stress-testing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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