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The Role of Climatic, Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors in the Natural Movement of Urban Populations in Kazakhstan, 2012–2020: An Analysis from a Middle-Income Country in Central Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Nurlan Smagulov

    (Research Park of Biotechnology and Eco-Monitoring, Karaganda Buketov University, Karaganda 100028, Kazakhstan)

  • Olzhas Zhamantayev

    (School of Public Health, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda 100000, Kazakhstan)

  • Aiman Konkabayeva

    (Faculty of Biology and Geography, Karaganda Buketov University, Karaganda 100028, Kazakhstan)

  • Ainur Adilbekova

    (Department of Morphology and Physiology, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda 100000, Kazakhstan)

  • Gulmira Zhanalina

    (School of Public Health, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda 100000, Kazakhstan)

  • Nurzhamal Shintayeva

    (School of Public Health, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda 100000, Kazakhstan)

  • Dinara Aubakirova

    (School of Public Health, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda 100000, Kazakhstan)

Abstract

Background: This study addresses the importance of identifying key characteristics influencing demographic indicators for urban populations, emphasizing the need to consider regional climatic features and ecological factors. The research utilized data from ten main regional cities across the Republic of Kazakhstan. Methods: This study involved a retrospective analysis based on secondary data from official sources spanning 2012–2020. We employed correlation analysis and multidimensional regression models. Results: Noteworthy predictors for crude birth rate included the influence of effective temperature (β = 0.842, p < 0.0001), marriage rate (β = 0.780, p < 0.0001), Gini coefficient (β = −27.342, p = 0.020) and divorce rate (β = −2.060, p < 0.0001), with overall strong model performance (R 2 = 0.940). The degree of atmospheric pollution (β = −0.949, p = 0.044), effective temperature (β = −0.294, p < 0.0001) and Gini coefficient (β = 19.923, p = 0.015) were the predictors for crude mortality rate, with a high model fit (R 2 = 0.796). Conclusions: The study unveils significant relationships between demographic indicators (crude birth rate, mortality rate) and variables like effective temperature, marriage rate, divorce rate, Gini coefficient, physician density and others. This analysis of climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors influencing demographic indicators may help in promoting specific measures to address public health issues in Kazakhstan.

Suggested Citation

  • Nurlan Smagulov & Olzhas Zhamantayev & Aiman Konkabayeva & Ainur Adilbekova & Gulmira Zhanalina & Nurzhamal Shintayeva & Dinara Aubakirova, 2024. "The Role of Climatic, Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors in the Natural Movement of Urban Populations in Kazakhstan, 2012–2020: An Analysis from a Middle-Income Country in Central Asia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(4), pages 1-10, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:21:y:2024:i:4:p:416-:d:1366481
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Dufek, 2007. "The development of the marriage rate, the divorce rate, the birth rate and the death rate," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 53(1), pages 1-8.
    2. Valentin Simoncic & Séverine Deguen & Christophe Enaux & Stéphanie Vandentorren & Wahida Kihal-Talantikite, 2022. "A Comprehensive Review on Social Inequalities and Pregnancy Outcome—Identification of Relevant Pathways and Mechanisms," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-43, December.
    3. Emanuele Felice & Josep Pujol Andreu & Carlo D'Ippoliti, 2016. "GDP and life expectancy in Italy and Spain over the long run: A time-series approach," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(28), pages 813-866.
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