IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v21y2024i4p416-d1366481.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Role of Climatic, Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors in the Natural Movement of Urban Populations in Kazakhstan, 2012–2020: An Analysis from a Middle-Income Country in Central Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Nurlan Smagulov

    (Research Park of Biotechnology and Eco-Monitoring, Karaganda Buketov University, Karaganda 100028, Kazakhstan)

  • Olzhas Zhamantayev

    (School of Public Health, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda 100000, Kazakhstan)

  • Aiman Konkabayeva

    (Faculty of Biology and Geography, Karaganda Buketov University, Karaganda 100028, Kazakhstan)

  • Ainur Adilbekova

    (Department of Morphology and Physiology, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda 100000, Kazakhstan)

  • Gulmira Zhanalina

    (School of Public Health, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda 100000, Kazakhstan)

  • Nurzhamal Shintayeva

    (School of Public Health, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda 100000, Kazakhstan)

  • Dinara Aubakirova

    (School of Public Health, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda 100000, Kazakhstan)

Abstract

Background: This study addresses the importance of identifying key characteristics influencing demographic indicators for urban populations, emphasizing the need to consider regional climatic features and ecological factors. The research utilized data from ten main regional cities across the Republic of Kazakhstan. Methods: This study involved a retrospective analysis based on secondary data from official sources spanning 2012–2020. We employed correlation analysis and multidimensional regression models. Results: Noteworthy predictors for crude birth rate included the influence of effective temperature (β = 0.842, p < 0.0001), marriage rate (β = 0.780, p < 0.0001), Gini coefficient (β = −27.342, p = 0.020) and divorce rate (β = −2.060, p < 0.0001), with overall strong model performance (R 2 = 0.940). The degree of atmospheric pollution (β = −0.949, p = 0.044), effective temperature (β = −0.294, p < 0.0001) and Gini coefficient (β = 19.923, p = 0.015) were the predictors for crude mortality rate, with a high model fit (R 2 = 0.796). Conclusions: The study unveils significant relationships between demographic indicators (crude birth rate, mortality rate) and variables like effective temperature, marriage rate, divorce rate, Gini coefficient, physician density and others. This analysis of climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors influencing demographic indicators may help in promoting specific measures to address public health issues in Kazakhstan.

Suggested Citation

  • Nurlan Smagulov & Olzhas Zhamantayev & Aiman Konkabayeva & Ainur Adilbekova & Gulmira Zhanalina & Nurzhamal Shintayeva & Dinara Aubakirova, 2024. "The Role of Climatic, Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors in the Natural Movement of Urban Populations in Kazakhstan, 2012–2020: An Analysis from a Middle-Income Country in Central Asia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(4), pages 1-10, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:21:y:2024:i:4:p:416-:d:1366481
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/21/4/416/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/21/4/416/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emanuele Felice & Josep Pujol Andreu & Carlo D'Ippoliti, 2016. "GDP and life expectancy in Italy and Spain over the long run: A time-series approach," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(28), pages 813-866.
    2. J. Dufek, 2007. "The development of the marriage rate, the divorce rate, the birth rate and the death rate," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 53(1), pages 1-8.
    3. Valentin Simoncic & Séverine Deguen & Christophe Enaux & Stéphanie Vandentorren & Wahida Kihal-Talantikite, 2022. "A Comprehensive Review on Social Inequalities and Pregnancy Outcome—Identification of Relevant Pathways and Mechanisms," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-43, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mihai PĂUNICĂ & Alexandru MANOLE & Cătălina MOTOFEI & Gabriela - Lidia TĂNASE, 2020. "Life Expectancy from the Perspective of Global and Individual Wealth and Expenditures: A Granger Causality Study of Some Eu Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 170-184, December.
    2. Dorn, Florian & Lange, Berit & Braml, Martin & Gstrein, David & Nyirenda, John L.Z. & Vanella, Patrizio & Winter, Joachim & Fuest, Clemens & Krause, Gérard, 2023. "The challenge of estimating the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 interventions – Toward an integrated economic and epidemiological approach," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    3. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro, 2019. "Human Development in the Age of Globalisation," CEPR Discussion Papers 13744, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Michele Battisti & Antonio Francesco Gravina & Andrea Mario Lavezzi & Giuseppe Maggio & Giorgio Tortorici, 2024. "Educational Take-off and the Role of Wealth," Discussion Papers 2024/302, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Wang, Shaobin & Ren, Zhoupeng & Liu, Xianglong & Yin, Qian, 2022. "Spatiotemporal trends in life expectancy and impacts of economic growth and air pollution in 134 countries: A Bayesian modeling study," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:21:y:2024:i:4:p:416-:d:1366481. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.