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Exploring Health Trends Prior to State Pension Age for The Netherlands up to 2040

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  • Maaike van der Noordt

    (Department of Health Knowledge Integration, Center for Health and Society, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

  • Johan J. Polder

    (Department of Health Knowledge Integration, Center for Health and Society, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    Tilburg School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Tilburg University, Tranzo, 5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands)

  • Marjanne H. D. Plasmans

    (Department of Health Knowledge Integration, Center for Health and Society, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands)

  • Henk B. M. Hilderink

    (Department of Health Knowledge Integration, Center for Health and Society, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands)

  • Dorly J. H. Deeg

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

  • Theo G. van Tilburg

    (Department of Sociology, Faculty of Social Sciences, Vrije Universiteit, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

  • Suzan van der Pas

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
    Faculty of Social Work and Applied Psychology, University of Applied Sciences Leiden, 2333 CK Leiden, The Netherlands
    Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Leiden University Medical Centre, 2333 ZD Leiden, The Netherlands)

  • Fons van der Lucht

    (Department of Health Knowledge Integration, Center for Health and Society, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    Centre of Expertise Healthy Ageing, Hanze University of Applied Sciences, 9747 AA Groningen, The Netherlands)

Abstract

Background: In many Western countries, the state pension age is being raised to stimulate the extension of working lives. It is not yet well understood whether the health of older adults supports this increase. In this study, future health of Dutch adults aged 60 to 68 (i.e., the expected state pension age) is explored up to 2040. Methods: Data are from the Dutch Health Interview Survey 1990–2017 (N ≈ 10,000 yearly) and the Dutch Public Health Monitor 2016 (N = 205,151). Health is operationalized using combined scores of self-reported health and limitations in mobility, hearing or seeing. Categories are: good, moderate and poor health. Based on historical health trends, two scenarios are explored: a stable health trend (neither improving nor declining) and an improving health trend. Results: In 2040, the health distribution among men aged 60–68 is estimated to be 63–71% in good, 17–28% in moderate and 9–12% in poor health. Among women, this is estimated to be 64–69%, 17–24% and 12–14%, respectively. Conclusions: This study’s explorations suggest that a substantial share of people will be in moderate or poor health and, thus, may have difficulty continuing working. Policy aiming at sustainable employability will, therefore, remain important, even in the case of the most favorable scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Maaike van der Noordt & Johan J. Polder & Marjanne H. D. Plasmans & Henk B. M. Hilderink & Dorly J. H. Deeg & Theo G. van Tilburg & Suzan van der Pas & Fons van der Lucht, 2022. "Exploring Health Trends Prior to State Pension Age for The Netherlands up to 2040," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-13, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:7:p:4209-:d:785193
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cécile R.L. Boot & Micky Scharn & Allard J. van der Beek & Lars L. Andersen & Chris T.M. Elbers & Maarten Lindeboom, 2019. "Effects of Early Retirement Policy Changes on Working until Retirement: Natural Experiment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-12, October.
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    3. Seeman, T.E. & Merkin, S.S. & Crimmins, E.M. & Karlamangla, A.S., 2010. "Disability trends among older Americans: National Health and Nutrition Examination surveys, 1988-1994 and 1999-2004," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 100(1), pages 100-107.
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