IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2022i4p2022-d747047.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk Perception Influence on Vaccination Program on COVID-19 in Chile: A Mathematical Model

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Pablo Gutiérrez-Jara

    (Centro de Investigación de Estudios Avanzados del Maule (CIEAM), Vicerrectoría de Investigación y Postgrado, Universidad Católica del Maule, Talca 3480112, Chile
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Chiara Saracini

    (Centro de Investigación de Estudios Avanzados del Maule (CIEAM), Vicerrectoría de Investigación y Postgrado, Universidad Católica del Maule, Talca 3480112, Chile
    Centro de Investigación en Neuropsicologia y Neurociencias Cognitivas (CINPSI Neurocog), Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Católica del Maule, Talca 3480112, Chile
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 virus emergency prompted unprecedented safety measures, which were accepted by the population of each country to different degrees, for example, with more or less willingness to use personal protective elements (PPEs). We have developed a mathematical model of the contagion process, based on chilean data, to assess the interaction between biological factors (such as the impact of vaccination) and behavioral factors (such as the population’s perception of risk). The model clearly shows that the virus spreads through three waves of contagion, the second being the most prominent, regardless of any alteration in the variables taken into account, which only affect the overall number of people infected. By considering alternative values of the risk perception variable and examining the different possible scenarios, we have also found that the less reaction to change the population has (and the lower the disposition to use PPEs), the higher the waves of contagion and the death toll are.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Pablo Gutiérrez-Jara & Chiara Saracini, 2022. "Risk Perception Influence on Vaccination Program on COVID-19 in Chile: A Mathematical Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-12, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:4:p:2022-:d:747047
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/4/2022/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/4/2022/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Smith, Richard D., 2006. "Responding to global infectious disease outbreaks: Lessons from SARS on the role of risk perception, communication and management," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 63(12), pages 3113-3123, December.
    2. Edouard Mathieu & Hannah Ritchie & Esteban Ortiz-Ospina & Max Roser & Joe Hasell & Cameron Appel & Charlie Giattino & Lucas Rodés-Guirao, 2021. "A global database of COVID-19 vaccinations," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 947-953, July.
    3. Joël Mossong & Niel Hens & Mark Jit & Philippe Beutels & Kari Auranen & Rafael Mikolajczyk & Marco Massari & Stefania Salmaso & Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba & Jacco Wallinga & Janneke Heijne & Malgorzata Sa, 2008. "Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(3), pages 1-1, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Juan Pablo Gutiérrez-Jara & Katia Vogt-Geisse & Maritza Cabrera, 2022. "Collateral Effects of Insecticide-Treated Nets on Human and Environmental Safety in an Epidemiological Model for Malaria with Human Risk Perception," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-17, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ichino, Andrea & Favero, Carlo A. & Rustichini, Aldo, 2020. "Restarting the economy while saving lives under Covid-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 14664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Cynthia Fan Yang, 2022. "Matching theory and evidence on Covid‐19 using a stochastic network SIR model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 1204-1229, September.
    3. Wei Zhong, 2017. "Simulating influenza pandemic dynamics with public risk communication and individual responsive behavior," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 475-495, December.
    4. S. M. Niaz Arifin & Christoph Zimmer & Caroline Trotter & Anaïs Colombini & Fati Sidikou & F. Marc LaForce & Ted Cohen & Reza Yaesoubi, 2019. "Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Uses of Polyvalent Meningococcal Vaccines in Niger: An Agent-Based Transmission Modeling Study," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 39(5), pages 553-567, July.
    5. S. D. Sreeganga & Ajay Chandra & Arkalgud Ramaprasad, 2021. "Ontological Analysis of COVID-19 Vaccine Roll out Strategies: A Comparison of India and the United States of America," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-18, July.
    6. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "Spatial‐SIR with network structure and behavior: Lockdown rules and the Lucas critique," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 370-388.
    7. Mirjam Kretzschmar & Rafael T Mikolajczyk, 2009. "Contact Profiles in Eight European Countries and Implications for Modelling the Spread of Airborne Infectious Diseases," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(6), pages 1-8, June.
    8. Radosław Trepanowski & Dariusz Drążkowski, 2024. "The Vaccine-Education Paradox in a Cross-Country Analysis: Education Predicts Higher and Lower Vaccination Rates," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(2), pages 21582440241, May.
    9. Andrei I. Vlad & Alexei A. Romanyukha & Tatiana E. Sannikova, 2024. "Parameter Tuning of Agent-Based Models: Metaheuristic Algorithms," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-21, July.
    10. Talwar, Manish & Talwar, Shalini & Kaur, Puneet & Tripathy, Naliniprava & Dhir, Amandeep, 2021. "Has financial attitude impacted the trading activity of retail investors during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    11. Schenkel, Marina, 2024. "Health emergencies, science contrarianism and populism: A scoping review," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    12. Gillis, Melissa & Urban, Ryley & Saif, Ahmed & Kamal, Noreen & Murphy, Matthew, 2021. "A simulation–optimization framework for optimizing response strategies to epidemics," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 8(C).
    13. Arielle Kaim & Eli Jaffe & Maya Siman-Tov & Ella Khairish & Bruria Adini, 2020. "Impact of a Brief Educational Intervention on Knowledge, Perceived Knowledge, Perceived Safety, and Resilience of the Public During COVID-19 Crisis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-14, August.
    14. Valentina Marziano & Giorgio Guzzetta & Alessia Mammone & Flavia Riccardo & Piero Poletti & Filippo Trentini & Mattia Manica & Andrea Siddu & Antonino Bella & Paola Stefanelli & Patrizio Pezzotti & Ma, 2021. "The effect of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy and perspectives for living with the virus," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    15. Nikolaos P. Rachaniotis & Thomas K. Dasaklis & Filippos Fotopoulos & Platon Tinios, 2021. "A Two-Phase Stochastic Dynamic Model for COVID-19 Mid-Term Policy Recommendations in Greece: A Pathway towards Mass Vaccination," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-21, March.
    16. Thomas Ash & Antonio M. Bento & Daniel Kaffine & Akhil Rao & Ana I. Bento, 2022. "Disease-economy trade-offs under alternative epidemic control strategies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    17. Anirudh Shingal & Prachi Agarwal, 2020. "How did trade in GVC-based products respond to previous health shocks? Lessons for COVID-19," RSCAS Working Papers 2020/68, European University Institute.
    18. Lewandowski, Piotr, 2020. "Occupational Exposure to Contagion and the Spread of COVID-19 in Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 13227, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Malinda & Maya & Jo-Hui & Chen, 2022. "Testing for the Long Memory and Multiple Structural Breaks in Consumer ETFs," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(6), pages 1-6.
    20. Ilias Chronopoulos & Katerina Chrysikou & George Kapetanios & James Mitchell & Aristeidis Raftapostolos, 2023. "Deep Neural Network Estimation in Panel Data Models," Working Papers 23-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:4:p:2022-:d:747047. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.