IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2022i20p13656-d949136.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting Transmission Suitability of Mosquito-Borne Diseases under Climate Change to Underpin Decision Making

Author

Listed:
  • Kate Sargent

    (School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FE, UK
    School of Social Science, University of Dundee, Dundee DD1 4HN, UK)

  • James Mollard

    (School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FE, UK)

  • Sian F. Henley

    (School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FE, UK)

  • Massimo A. Bollasina

    (School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FE, UK)

Abstract

The risk of the mosquito-borne diseases malaria, dengue fever and Zika virus is expected to shift both temporally and spatially under climate change. As climate change projections continue to improve, our ability to predict these shifts is also enhanced. This paper predicts transmission suitability for these mosquito-borne diseases, which are three of the most significant, using the most up-to-date climate change projections. Using a mechanistic methodology, areas that are newly suitable and those where people are most at risk of transmission under the best- and worst-case climate change scenarios have been identified. The results show that although transmission suitability is expected to decrease overall for malaria, some areas will become newly suitable, putting naïve populations at risk. In contrast, transmission suitability for dengue fever and Zika virus is expected to increase both in duration and geographical extent. Although transmission suitability is expected to increase in temperate zones for a few months of the year, suitability remains focused in the tropics. The highest transmission suitability in tropical regions is likely to exacerbate the intense existing vulnerability of these populations, especially children, to the multiple consequences of climate change, and their severe lack of resources and agency to cope with these impacts and pressures. As these changes in transmission suitability are amplified under the worst-case climate change scenario, this paper makes the case in support of enhanced and more urgent efforts to mitigate climate change than has been achieved to date. By presenting consistent data on the climate-driven spread of multiple mosquito-borne diseases, our work provides more holistic information to underpin prevention and control planning and decision making at national and regional levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Kate Sargent & James Mollard & Sian F. Henley & Massimo A. Bollasina, 2022. "Predicting Transmission Suitability of Mosquito-Borne Diseases under Climate Change to Underpin Decision Making," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-14, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:20:p:13656-:d:949136
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/20/13656/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/20/13656/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lukoye Atwoli & Abdullah H Baqui & Thomas Benfield & Raffaella Bosurgi & Fiona Godlee & Stephen Hancocks & Richard Horton & Laurie Laybourn-Langton & Carlos Augusto Monteiro & Ian Norman & Kirsten Pat, 2021. "Call for emergency action to limit global temperature increases, restore biodiversity, and protect health," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(9), pages 1-4, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jaime A. Teixeira da Silva, 2023. "The risk of abuse of environmental sustainable developmental goals (SDGs) by academia and publishers for cheap reputational gains," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 1-5, June.
    2. Altsitsiadis, E. & Kaiser, M. & Tsakas, A. & Kyriakidis, A. & Stamos, A., 2024. "Investigating the Regional and Individual Drivers of the Support for Renewable Energy Transition: The Role of Severe Material Deprivation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2419, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Emmanuelle Arpin & Karl Gauffin & Meghan Kerr & Anders Hjern & Angela Mashford-Pringle & Aluisio Barros & Luis Rajmil & Imti Choonara & Nicholas Spencer, 2021. "Climate Change and Child Health Inequality: A Review of Reviews," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(20), pages 1-17, October.
    4. Ramon Farré & Miguel A. Rodríguez-Lázaro & Anh Tuan Dinh-Xuan & Martí Pons-Odena & Daniel Navajas & David Gozal, 2021. "A Low-Cost, Easy-to-Assemble Device to Prevent Infant Hyperthermia under Conditions of High Thermal Stress," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Modan Goldman & Aditya Vaidyam & Sindhu Parupalli & Holly Rosencranz & Davendra Ramkumar & Japhia Ramkumar, 2024. "Food Systems and Planetary Health Nexus Elective: A Novel Approach to A Medical Education Imperative for the 21st Century," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, January.
    6. Michelle McLean & Georgia Behrens & Hannah Chase & Omnia El Omrani & Finola Hackett & Karly Hampshire & Nuzhat Islam & Sarah Hsu & Natasha Sood, 2022. "The Medical Education Planetary Health Journey: Advancing the Agenda in the Health Professions Requires Eco-Ethical Leadership and Inclusive Collaboration," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-17, December.
    7. Or, Zeynep & Seppänen, Anna-Veera, 2024. "The role of the health sector in tackling climate change: A narrative review," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    8. Audrey de Nazelle & Charlotte J. Roscoe & Aina Roca-Barcelό & Giselle Sebag & Gudrun Weinmayr & Carlos Dora & Kristie L. Ebi & Mark J. Nieuwenhuijsen & Maya Negev, 2021. "Urban Climate Policy and Action through a Health Lens—An Untapped Opportunity," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-9, November.
    9. Jan Petzold & Lukas Mose, 2023. "Urban Greening as a Response to Climate-Related Heat Risk: A Social–Geographical Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-16, March.
    10. William N. Rom, 2023. "Annals of Education: Teaching Climate Change and Global Public Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(1), pages 1-16, December.
    11. Frković, Lovro & Ćosić, Boris & Pukšec, Tomislav & Vladimir, Nikola, 2022. "The synergy between the photovoltaic power systems and battery-powered electric ferries in the isolated energy system of an island," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    12. Nicholas Copeland, 2022. "Liberation extension: building capacities for civilizational transition," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 39(3), pages 859-870, September.
    13. Johannah Bjorgaard & Teddie Potter, 2023. "Reducing Environmental Impacts at a Midwestern Academic Medical Center: Making Carbon Emissions Reduction a Reality," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-12, October.
    14. Amy Booth & Alexandra Jager & Stuart D Faulkner & Christopher C Winchester & Sara E Shaw, 2023. "Pharmaceutical Company Targets and Strategies to Address Climate Change: Content Analysis of Public Reports from 20 Pharmaceutical Companies," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-18, February.
    15. Barbara Greenwood Dufour & Laura Weeks & Gino De Angelis & Dave K. Marchand & David Kaunelis & Melissa Severn & Melissa Walter & Nicole Mittmann, 2022. "How We Might Further Integrate Considerations of Environmental Impact When Assessing the Value of Health Technologies," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-8, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:20:p:13656-:d:949136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.