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Analyzing Spatial Dependency of the 2016–2017 Korean HPAI Outbreak to Determine the Effective Culling Radius

Author

Listed:
  • Kwideok Han

    (Department of Institutional Research and Analytics, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74078, USA)

  • Meilan An

    (Department of Food Industrial Management, Dongguk University, Jung-gu, Seoul 04620, Korea)

  • Inbae Ji

    (Department of Food Industrial Management, Dongguk University, Jung-gu, Seoul 04620, Korea)

Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are a threat to human health and cause extremely large financial losses to the poultry industry due to containment measures. Determining the most effective control measures, especially the culling radius, to minimize economic impacts yet contain the spread of HPAI is of great importance. This study examines the factors influencing the probability of a farm being infected with HPAI during the 2016–2017 HPAI outbreak in Korea. Using a spatial random effects logistic model, only a few factors commonly associated with a higher risk of HPAI infection were significant. Interestingly, most density-related factors, poultry and farm, were not significantly associated with a higher risk of HPAI infection. The effective culling radius was determined to be two ranges: 0.5–2.2 km and 2.7–3.0 km. This suggests that the spatial heterogeneity, due to local characteristics and/or the characteristics of the HPAI virus(es) involved, should be considered to determine the most effective culling radius in each region. These findings will help strengthen biosecurity control measures at the farm level and enable authorities to quickly respond to HPAI outbreaks with effective countermeasures to suppress the spread of HPAI.

Suggested Citation

  • Kwideok Han & Meilan An & Inbae Ji, 2021. "Analyzing Spatial Dependency of the 2016–2017 Korean HPAI Outbreak to Determine the Effective Culling Radius," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(18), pages 1-12, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:18:p:9643-:d:634634
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paciorek, Christopher J., 2007. "Computational techniques for spatial logistic regression with large data sets," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 3631-3653, May.
    2. An, Miran, 2019. "An Analysis of HPAI Risk Factors by Characteristics of Poultry Farm," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 42(3), September.
    3. Meilan An & Jeffrey Vitale & Kwideok Han & John N. Ng’ombe & Inbae Ji, 2021. "Effects of Spatial Characteristics on the Spread of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-13, April.
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