IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v18y2021i16p8260-d608208.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Excess Risk of COVID-19 to University Populations Resulting from In-Person Sporting Events

Author

Listed:
  • Stephanie S. Johnson

    (Paul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USA)

  • Katelin C. Jackson

    (Paul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USA)

  • Matthew S. Mietchen

    (Paul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USA)

  • Samir Sbai

    (School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USA)

  • Elissa J. Schwartz

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USA
    School of Biological Sciences, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USA)

  • Eric T. Lofgren

    (Paul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USA)

Abstract

Background: One of the consequences of COVID-19 has been the cancelation of collegiate sporting events. We explore the impact of sports on COVID-19 transmission on a college campus. Methods: Using a compartmental model representing the university, we model the impact of influxes of 10,000 visitors attending events and ancillary activities (dining out, visiting family, shopping, etc.) on 20,000 students. We vary the extent visitors interact with the campus, the number of infectious visitors, and the extent to which the campus has controlled COVID-19 absent events. We also conduct a global sensitivity analysis. Results: Events caused an increase in the number of cases ranging from a 25% increase when the campus already had an uncontrolled COVID-19 outbreak and visitors had a low prevalence of COVID-19 and mixed lightly with the campus community to an 822% increase where the campus had controlled their COVID-19 outbreak and visitors had both a high prevalence of COVID-19 and mixed heavily with the campus community. The model was insensitive to parameter uncertainty, save for the duration a symptomatic individual was infectious. Conclusion: Sporting events represent a threat to the health of the campus community. This is the case even in circumstances where COVID-19 seems controlled both on-campus and among the general population.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephanie S. Johnson & Katelin C. Jackson & Matthew S. Mietchen & Samir Sbai & Elissa J. Schwartz & Eric T. Lofgren, 2021. "Excess Risk of COVID-19 to University Populations Resulting from In-Person Sporting Events," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-13, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:16:p:8260-:d:608208
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/16/8260/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/16/8260/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Donald I. Price & Kabir C. Sen, 2003. "The demand for game day attendance in college football: an analysis of the 1997 Division 1-A season," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 35-46.
    2. Timo R Maarleveld & Brett G Olivier & Frank J Bruggeman, 2013. "StochPy: A Comprehensive, User-Friendly Tool for Simulating Stochastic Biological Processes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(11), pages 1-10, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dominik Schreyer, 2019. "Football spectator no-show behaviour in the German Bundesliga," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(45), pages 4882-4901, September.
    2. Gregory D. Clarke & David J. Hoaas, 2007. "Festival Economics: The Case of the Red River Revel," Tourism Economics, , vol. 13(1), pages 163-175, March.
    3. Qi Ge & Brad R. Humphreys & Kun Zhou, 2020. "Are Fair Weather Fans Affected by Weather? Rainfall, Habit Formation, and Live Game Attendance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(3), pages 304-322, April.
    4. Jason A. Winfree, 2020. "Rivalries, Bowl Eligibility, and Scheduling Effects in College Football," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(5), pages 477-492, June.
    5. Gregory A. Falls & Paul A. Natke, 2016. "College Football Attendance: A Panel Study of the Football Championship Subdivision," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(8), pages 530-540, December.
    6. Brown, Katie M. & Salaga, Steven, 2018. "NCAA football television viewership: Product quality and consumer preference relative to market expectations," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 377-390.
    7. Mark D. Groza, 2010. "NCAA conference realignment and football game day attendance," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(8), pages 517-529, December.
    8. Stefan Szymanski & Jason Winfree, 2018. "On The Optimal Realignment Of A Contest: The Case Of College Football," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 483-496, January.
    9. Sarah Marx Quintanar & Cary Deck & Javier A. Reyes & Sudipta Sarangi, 2015. "You Are Close To Your Rival And Everybody Hates A Winner : A Study Of Rivalry In College Football," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(4), pages 1908-1918, October.
    10. Dennis Coates & Craig A Depken, 2009. "The Impact of College Football Games on Local Sales Tax Revenue: Evidence from Four Cities in Texas," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 531-547.
    11. Paul A. Natke & Elizabeth A. Thomas, 2019. "Does a marching band impact college Football game attendance? A panel study of Division II," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(16), pages 1354-1357, September.
    12. James A R Marshall & Andreagiovanni Reina & Thomas Bose, 2019. "Multiscale Modelling Tool: Mathematical modelling of collective behaviour without the maths," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(9), pages 1-16, September.
    13. Scott Tainsky & Monika Stodolska, 2010. "Population Migration and Team Loyalty in Professional Sports," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 91(3), pages 801-815, September.
    14. Benito Chen-Charpentier, 2021. "Stochastic Modeling of Plant Virus Propagation with Biological Control," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-16, February.
    15. Jeffery Borland, 2003. "Demand for Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(4), pages 478-502, Winter.
    16. repec:lan:wpaper:3602 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. John C. Whitehead & Bruce K. Johnson & Daniel S. Mason & Gordon J. Walker, 2013. "Consumption Benefits Of National Hockey League Game Trips Estimated From Revealed And Stated Preference Demand Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 1012-1025, January.
    18. Gregory A. Falls & Paul A. Natke & Linlan Xiao, 2022. "College football attendance in the long run: The Football Championship Subdivision," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2172-2183, September.
    19. Dennis Coates & Brad R. Humphreys, 2005. "Novelty Effects Of New Facilities On Attendance At Professional Sporting Events," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(3), pages 436-455, July.
    20. Roger G. Noll, 2007. "Broadcasting And Team Sports," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(3), pages 400-421, July.
    21. Watanabe, Nicholas M. & Yan, Grace & Soebbing, Brian P., 2019. "Market disruption as a regime for athlete activism: An economic analysis of college football player protests," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 600-612.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:16:p:8260-:d:608208. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.