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Dynamic Analysis and Prediction of Food Nitrogen Footprint of Urban and Rural Residents in Shanghai

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  • Yuling Xia

    (Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
    Institute of Eco-Chongming (IEC), East China Normal University, Shanghai 202162, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Chengsong Liao

    (Institute of Xilingol Bioengineering Research, Xilingol Vocational College, Xilinhot 026000, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Dianming Wu

    (Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
    Institute of Eco-Chongming (IEC), East China Normal University, Shanghai 202162, China)

  • Yanzhuo Liu

    (Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
    Institute of Eco-Chongming (IEC), East China Normal University, Shanghai 202162, China)

Abstract

The food nitrogen (N) footprint reflects the amount of reactive N emission and its impact on the environment as a result of food production and consumption to satisfy the basic food demands of an urban population. The N-Calculator model was used to estimate the food N footprint and its dynamic changes in Shanghai from 2000 to 2017, and the auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model was used to predict the food N footprint in Shanghai from 2018 to 2027. The results show that the food N footprint was higher in urban areas (15.3–18.8 kg N/capita/yr) than rural areas (12.6–17.4 kg N/capita/yr) of Shanghai from 2000 to 2017. The change in the food N footprint was consistent with changes in food consumption in urban and rural areas, and the total food N footprint of urban and rural residents was positively correlated with the per capita disposable income and population whereas it was negatively correlated with the Engel’s Coefficient and price index. It was predicted that the per capita food N footprint will gradually decrease in 2018–2027 in urban areas of Shanghai, but it will generally increase in the rural areas. This study will help to initiate policy interventions for sustainable N management and contribute to the achievement of key sustainable development goals (SDGs).

Suggested Citation

  • Yuling Xia & Chengsong Liao & Dianming Wu & Yanzhuo Liu, 2020. "Dynamic Analysis and Prediction of Food Nitrogen Footprint of Urban and Rural Residents in Shanghai," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-13, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:5:p:1760-:d:330016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2019. "Engel's Law in the Global Economy: Demand‐Induced Patterns of Structural Change, Innovation, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(2), pages 497-528, March.
    2. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 2010. "The Consumption Response to Income Changes," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 479-506, September.
    3. Pierer, Magdalena & Winiwarter, Wilfried & Leach, Allison M. & Galloway, James N., 2014. "The nitrogen footprint of food products and general consumption patterns in Austria," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P1), pages 128-136.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Dongdong & Zhang, Yan & Zhang, Xiaolin & Fath, Brain D., 2023. "Research progress of urban nitrogen cycle and metabolism," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    2. Zixiao Luo & Xiaocan Jia & Junzhe Bao & Zhijuan Song & Huili Zhu & Mengying Liu & Yongli Yang & Xuezhong Shi, 2022. "A Combined Model of SARIMA and Prophet Models in Forecasting AIDS Incidence in Henan Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-12, May.

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