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Potential Effects on Travelers’ Air Pollution Exposure and Associated Mortality Estimated for a Mode Shift from Car to Bicycle Commuting

Author

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  • Johan Nilsson Sommar

    (Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden)

  • Christer Johansson

    (Department of Environmental Science, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
    Environment and Health Administration, SLB, 104 20 Stockholm, Sweden)

  • Boel Lövenheim

    (Environment and Health Administration, SLB, 104 20 Stockholm, Sweden)

  • Anders Markstedt

    (WSP Civils, 121 88 Stockholm, Sweden)

  • Magnus Strömgren

    (Department of Geography, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden)

  • Bertil Forsberg

    (Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden)

Abstract

This study aims to use dispersion-modeled concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and black carbon (BC) to estimate bicyclist exposures along a network of roads and bicycle paths. Such modeling was also performed in a scenario with increased bicycling. Accumulated concentrations between home and work were thereafter calculated for both bicyclists and drivers of cars. A transport model was used to estimate traffic volumes and current commuting preferences in Stockholm County. The study used individuals’ home and work addresses, their age, sex, and an empirical model estimate of their expected physical capacity in order to establish realistic bicycle travel distances. If car commuters with estimated physical capacity to bicycle to their workplace within 30 min changed their mode of transport to bicycle, >110,000 additional bicyclists would be achieved. Time-weighted mean concentrations along paths were, among current bicyclists, reduced from 25.8 to 24.2 μg/m 3 for NOx and 1.14 to 1.08 μg/m 3 for BC. Among the additional bicyclists, the yearly mean NOx dose from commuting increased from 0.08 to 1.03 μg/m 3 . This would be expected to yearly cause 0.10 fewer deaths for current bicycling levels and 1.7 more deaths for additional bicycling. This increased air pollution impact is much smaller than the decrease in the total population.

Suggested Citation

  • Johan Nilsson Sommar & Christer Johansson & Boel Lövenheim & Anders Markstedt & Magnus Strömgren & Bertil Forsberg, 2020. "Potential Effects on Travelers’ Air Pollution Exposure and Associated Mortality Estimated for a Mode Shift from Car to Bicycle Commuting," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(20), pages 1-16, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:20:p:7635-:d:431660
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel Jonsson & Svante Berglund & Peter Almström & Staffan Algers, 2011. "The Usefulness of Transport Models in Swedish Planning Practice," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 251-265.
    2. Jonsson, Daniel & Berglund, Svante & Almström, Peter & Algers, Staffan, 2011. "The Usefulness of Transport Models in Swedish Planning Practice," Working papers in Transport Economics 2011:20, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 14 Dec 2011.
    3. Peter Schantz, 2017. "Distance, Duration, and Velocity in Cycle Commuting: Analyses of Relations and Determinants of Velocity," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-14, October.
    4. Peter Schantz & Lina Wahlgren & Jane Salier Eriksson & Johan Nilsson Sommar & Hans Rosdahl, 2018. "Estimating duration-distance relations in cycle commuting in the general population," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-20, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuanyuan Guo & Linchuan Yang & Wenke Huang & Yi Guo, 2020. "Traffic Safety Perception, Attitude, and Feeder Mode Choice of Metro Commute: Evidence from Shenzhen," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-20, December.
    2. Reed Ciarloni & K. Bruce Newbold, 2023. "Air Pollution Health Literacy among Active Commuters in Hamilton, Ontario," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(13), pages 1-23, July.
    3. Ana Louro & Nuno Marques da Costa & Eduarda Marques da Costa, 2021. "From Livable Communities to Livable Metropolis: Challenges for Urban Mobility in Lisbon Metropolitan Area (Portugal)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-22, March.

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