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Malaria Transmission and Spillover across the Peru–Ecuador Border: A Spatiotemporal Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Annika K. Gunderson

    (Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC 27710, USA)

  • Rani E. Kumar

    (Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27710, USA)

  • Cristina Recalde-Coronel

    (Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, 327 Olin Hall, 3400 N. Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA
    Facultad de Ingeniería Marítima y Ciencias del Mar, Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, Guayaquil 090150, Ecuador)

  • Luis E. Vasco

    (Instituto de Geografía, Colegio de Ciencias Biológicas y Ambientales, Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Quito 170104, Ecuador)

  • Andree Valle-Campos

    (Emerge, Emerging Diseases and Climate Change Research Unit, Universidad Cayetano Peruana Heredia, San Martín de Porres 15102, Peru)

  • Carlos F. Mena

    (Instituto de Geografía, Colegio de Ciencias Biológicas y Ambientales, Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Quito 170104, Ecuador)

  • Benjamin F. Zaitchik

    (Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, 327 Olin Hall, 3400 N. Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA)

  • Andres G. Lescano

    (Emerge, Emerging Diseases and Climate Change Research Unit, Universidad Cayetano Peruana Heredia, San Martín de Porres 15102, Peru)

  • William K. Pan

    (Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC 27710, USA
    Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27710, USA)

  • Mark M. Janko

    (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98121, USA)

Abstract

Border regions have been implicated as important hot spots of malaria transmission, particularly in Latin America, where free movement rights mean that residents can cross borders using just a national ID. Additionally, rural livelihoods largely depend on short-term migrants traveling across borders via the Amazon’s river networks to work in extractive industries, such as logging. As a result, there is likely considerable spillover across country borders, particularly along the border between Peru and Ecuador. This border region exhibits a steep gradient of transmission intensity, with Peru having a much higher incidence of malaria than Ecuador. In this paper, we integrate 13 years of weekly malaria surveillance data collected at the district level in Peru and the canton level in Ecuador, and leverage hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal regression models to identify the degree to which malaria transmission in Ecuador is influenced by transmission in Peru. We find that increased case incidence in Peruvian districts that border the Ecuadorian Amazon is associated with increased incidence in Ecuador. Our results highlight the importance of coordinated malaria control across borders.

Suggested Citation

  • Annika K. Gunderson & Rani E. Kumar & Cristina Recalde-Coronel & Luis E. Vasco & Andree Valle-Campos & Carlos F. Mena & Benjamin F. Zaitchik & Andres G. Lescano & William K. Pan & Mark M. Janko, 2020. "Malaria Transmission and Spillover across the Peru–Ecuador Border: A Spatiotemporal Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(20), pages 1-9, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:20:p:7434-:d:426946
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alisson Barbieri & David Carr & Richard Bilsborrow, 2009. "Migration Within the Frontier: The Second Generation Colonization in the Ecuadorian Amazon," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 28(3), pages 291-320, June.
    2. Geir-Arne Fuglstad & Daniel Simpson & Finn Lindgren & Håvard Rue, 2019. "Constructing Priors that Penalize the Complexity of Gaussian Random Fields," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(525), pages 445-452, January.
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