IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v17y2020i13p4791-d379941.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the Magnitude of Illicit Cigarette Trade in Bangladesh: Protocol for a Mixed-Methods Study

Author

Listed:
  • S. M. Abdullah

    (Department of Economics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
    ARK Foundation, Suite C–3 & C–4, House–6, Road–109, Gulshan-2, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh)

  • Rumana Huque

    (Department of Economics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
    ARK Foundation, Suite C–3 & C–4, House–6, Road–109, Gulshan-2, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh)

  • Linda Bauld

    (Usher Institute, Old Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Teviot Place, Edinburgh EH8 PAG, UK)

  • Hana Ross

    (School of Economics, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch, Cape Town 7701, South Africa)

  • Anna Gilmore

    (Department for Health, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY, UK)

  • Rijo M. John

    (Centre for Public Policy Research, Ernakulam, Kerala 682020, India)

  • Fiona Dobbie

    (Usher Institute, Old Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Teviot Place, Edinburgh EH8 PAG, UK)

  • Kamran Siddiqi

    (Department of Health Sciences, University of York, Heslington, York YO10 5DD, UK)

Abstract

The illicit tobacco trade undermines the effectiveness of tobacco tax policies; increases the availability of cheap cigarettes, which, in turn, increases tobacco use and tobacco related deaths; and causes huge revenue losses to governments. There is limited evidence on the extent of illicit tobacco trade particularly cigarettes in Bangladesh. The paper presents the protocol for a mixed-methods study to estimate the extent of illicit cigarette trade in Bangladesh. The study will address three research questions: (a) What proportion of cigarettes sold as retail are illicit? (b) What are the common types of tax avoidance and tax evasion? (c) Can pack examination from the trash recycle market be considered as a new method to assess illicit trade in comparison to that from retailers and streets? Following an observational research method, data will be collected utilizing empty cigarette packs from three sources: (a) retailers; (b) streets; and (c) trash recycle market. In addition, a structured questionnaire will be used to collect information from retailers selling cigarettes. We will select post codes as Primary Sampling Unit (PSU) using a multi-stage random sampling technique. We will randomly select eight districts from eight divisions stratified by those with land border and non-land border; and within each district, we will randomly select ten postcodes, stratified by rural (five) and urban (five) PSU to ensure maximum geographical variation, leading to a total of eighty post codes from eight districts. The analysis will report the proportions of packs that do not comply with the study definition of illicit. Independent estimates of illicit tobacco are rare in low- and middle-income countries such as Bangladesh. Findings will inform efforts by revenue authorities and others to address the effects of illicit trade and counter tobacco industry claims.

Suggested Citation

  • S. M. Abdullah & Rumana Huque & Linda Bauld & Hana Ross & Anna Gilmore & Rijo M. John & Fiona Dobbie & Kamran Siddiqi, 2020. "Estimating the Magnitude of Illicit Cigarette Trade in Bangladesh: Protocol for a Mixed-Methods Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-14, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:13:p:4791-:d:379941
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/13/4791/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/13/4791/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Victor Abola & Deborah Sy & Ryan Denniston & Anthony So, 2014. "Empirical measurement of illicit tobacco trade in the Philippines," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 51(2), pages 83-96, December.
    2. Howard Chernick & David Merriman, 2013. "Using Littered Pack Data to Estimate Cigarette Tax Avoidance in Nyc," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 66(3), pages 635-668, June.
    3. David Merriman, 2010. "The Micro-geography of Tax Avoidance: Evidence from Littered Cigarette Packs in Chicago," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 61-84, May.
    4. Minh T. Nguyen & Son The Dao & Nga Que Nguyen & Mike Bowling & Hana Ross & Anthony D. So, 2019. "Illicit Cigarette Consumption and Government Revenue Loss in Vietnam: Evidence from a Primary Data Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-12, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hansen, Benjamin & Miller, Keaton & Weber, Caroline, 2020. "Federalism, partial prohibition, and cross-border sales: Evidence from recreational marijuana," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    2. Shu Wang & David Merriman & Frank Chaloupka, 2019. "Relative Tax Rates, Proximity, and Cigarette Tax Noncompliance: Evidence from a National Sample of Littered Cigarette Packs," Public Finance Review, , vol. 47(2), pages 276-311, March.
    3. Gallego, Juan M. & Llorente, Blanca & Maldonado, Norman & Otálvaro-Ramírez, Susana & Rodríguez-Lesmes, Paul, 2020. "Tobacco taxes and illicit cigarette trade in Colombia," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    4. Huynh, Dat & Sokolova, Anna & Tosun, Mehmet S., 2022. "Tax Elasticity of Border Sales: A Meta-Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 15525, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Lesley Chiou & Erich Muehlegger, 2014. "Consumer Response to Cigarette Excise Tax Changes," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 67(3), pages 621-650, September.
    6. Berger, Melissa & Fellner-Röhling, Gerlinde & Sausgruber, Rupert & Traxler, Christian, 2016. "Higher taxes, more evasion? Evidence from border differentials in TV license fees," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 74-86.
    7. Philip DeCicca & Donald Kenkel & Feng Liu, 2015. "Reservation Prices: An Economic Analysis of Cigarette Purchases on Indian Reservations," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 68(1), pages 93-118, March.
    8. Ander Iraizoz & José M Labeaga, 2022. "Incidence and Avoidance Effects of Spatial Fuel Tax Differentials: Evidence using Regional Tax Variation in Spain," Working Papers halshs-03789430, HAL.
    9. Agrawal, David R. & Trandel, Gregory A., 2019. "Dynamics of policy adoption with state dependence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Keaton Miller & Boyoung Seo, 2021. "The Effect of Cannabis Legalization on Substance Demand and Tax Revenues," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 107-145.
    11. David Agrawal & William H. Hoyt, 2014. "State Tax Differentials, Cross-Border Commuting, and Commuting Times in Multi-State Metropolitan Areas," CESifo Working Paper Series 4852, CESifo.
    12. Christian Ben Lakhdar & Nicolas Gérard Vaillant & François-Charles Wolff, 2016. "Does smoke cross the border? Cigarette tax avoidance in France," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 17(9), pages 1073-1089, December.
    13. James Alm, 2012. "Measuring, explaining, and controlling tax evasion: lessons from theory, experiments, and field studies," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(1), pages 54-77, February.
    14. James E. Prieger, 2023. "Tax noncompliance: The role of tax morale in smokers' behavior," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(4), pages 653-673, October.
    15. DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Donald & Liu, Feng, 2013. "Excise tax avoidance: The case of state cigarette taxes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1130-1141.
    16. Johansson, Per & Pekkarinen, Tuomas & Verho, Jouko, 2014. "Cross-border health and productivity effects of alcohol policies," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 125-136.
    17. Hansen, Benjamin & Sabia, Joseph J. & McNichols, Drew & Bryan, Calvin, 2023. "Do tobacco 21 laws work?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    18. Kastoryano, Stephen & Vollaard, Ben, 2023. "Unseen annihilation: Illegal fishing practices and nautical patrol," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    19. David Agrawal, 2012. "Games within borders: are geographically differentiated taxes optimal?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 574-597, August.
    20. Michael Darden & Donna B. Gilleskie & Koleman Strumpf, 2018. "Smoking And Mortality: New Evidence From A Long Panel," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1571-1619, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:13:p:4791-:d:379941. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.