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The Excess Heat Factor: A Metric for Heatwave Intensity and Its Use in Classifying Heatwave Severity

Author

Listed:
  • John R. Nairn

    (South Australian Regional Office, Bureau of Meteorology, Adelaide, South Australia 5067, Australia)

  • Robert J. B. Fawcett

    (Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria 3008, Australia
    Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre, East Melbourne, Victoria 3002, Australia)

Abstract

Heatwaves represent a significant natural hazard in Australia, arguably more hazardous to human life than bushfires, tropical cyclones and floods. In the 2008/2009 summer, for example, many more lives were lost to heatwaves than to that summer’s bushfires which were among the worst in the history of the Australian nation. For many years, these other forms of natural disaster have received much greater public attention than heatwaves, although there are some signs of change. We propose a new index, called the excess heat factor (EHF) for use in Australian heatwave monitoring and forecasting. The index is based on a three-day-averaged daily mean temperature (DMT), and is intended to capture heatwave intensity as it applies to human health outcomes, although its usefulness is likely to be much broader and with potential for international applicability. The index is described and placed in a climatological context in order to derive heatwave severity. Heatwave severity, as characterised by the climatological distribution of heatwave intensity, has been used to normalise the climatological variation in heatwave intensity range across Australia. This methodology was used to introduce a pilot national heatwave forecasting service for Australia during the 2013/2014 summer. Some results on the performance of the service are presented.

Suggested Citation

  • John R. Nairn & Robert J. B. Fawcett, 2014. "The Excess Heat Factor: A Metric for Heatwave Intensity and Its Use in Classifying Heatwave Severity," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-27, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:12:y:2014:i:1:p:227-253:d:43856
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mengmeng Li & Shaohua Gu & Peng Bi & Jun Yang & Qiyong Liu, 2015. "Heat Waves and Morbidity: Current Knowledge and Further Direction-A Comprehensive Literature Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-28, May.
    2. Leibin Wang & Robert V. Rohli & Qigen Lin & Shaofei Jin & Xiaodong Yan, 2022. "Impact of Extreme Heatwaves on Population Exposure in China Due to Additional Warming," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-13, September.
    3. Ali S. Alghamdi, 2022. "Recent Climatology (1991–2020) and Trends in Local Warm and Cold Season Extreme Temperature Days and Nights in Arabia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(5), pages 1-18, February.
    4. Dan Wanyama & Erin L. Bunting & Nicholas Weil & David Keellings, 2023. "Delineating and characterizing changes in heat wave events across the United States climate regions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-23, February.
    5. John Nairn & Bertram Ostendorf & Peng Bi, 2018. "Performance of Excess Heat Factor Severity as a Global Heatwave Health Impact Index," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-26, November.
    6. Jeffrey C. Standen & Jessica Spencer & Grace W. Lee & Joe Van Buskirk & Veronica Matthews & Ivan Hanigan & Sinead Boylan & Edward Jegasothy & Matilde Breth-Petersen & Geoffrey G. Morgan, 2022. "Aboriginal Population and Climate Change in Australia: Implications for Health and Adaptation Planning," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-30, June.
    7. Scott C. Sheridan & Cameron C. Lee & Michael J. Allen, 2019. "The Mortality Response to Absolute and Relative Temperature Extremes," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-14, April.
    8. Flores-Larsen, S. & Bre, F. & Hongn, M., 2022. "A performance-based method to detect and characterize heatwaves for building resilience analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    9. Francesca Cecinati & Tom Matthews & Sukumar Natarajan & Nick McCullen & David Coley, 2019. "Mining Social Media to Identify Heat Waves," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-19, March.

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