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Ecological Niche Modelling of Bank Voles in Western Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Sara Amirpour Haredasht

    (Measure, Model & Manage Bioresponses (M3-BIORES), Biosystems Department, KU Leuven, Kasteelpark Arenberg 30, Leuven B-3001, Belgium)

  • Miguel Barrios

    (BIORES, Biosystems Department, KU Leuven, Willem de Croylaan 34, Leuven B-3001, Belgium)

  • Jamshid Farifteh

    (BIORES, Biosystems Department, KU Leuven, Willem de Croylaan 34, Leuven B-3001, Belgium)

  • Piet Maes

    (National Reference Laboratory for Hantavirus Infections, Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Minderbroedersstraat 10, Leuven B-3000, Belgium)

  • Jan Clement

    (National Reference Laboratory for Hantavirus Infections, Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Minderbroedersstraat 10, Leuven B-3000, Belgium)

  • Willem W. Verstraeten

    (BIORES, Biosystems Department, KU Leuven, Willem de Croylaan 34, Leuven B-3001, Belgium
    Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Climate Observations, PO Box 201, De Bilt NL-3730 AE, The Netherlands
    Eindhoven University of Technology, Applied Physics, PO Box 513, Eindhoven 5600 MB, The Netherlands)

  • Katrien Tersago

    (Evolutionary Ecology Group, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, Antwerpen 2020, Belgium)

  • Marc Van Ranst

    (National Reference Laboratory for Hantavirus Infections, Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Minderbroedersstraat 10, Leuven B-3000, Belgium)

  • Pol Coppin

    (BIORES, Biosystems Department, KU Leuven, Willem de Croylaan 34, Leuven B-3001, Belgium)

  • Daniel Berckmans

    (Measure, Model & Manage Bioresponses (M3-BIORES), Biosystems Department, KU Leuven, Kasteelpark Arenberg 30, Leuven B-3001, Belgium)

  • Jean-Marie Aerts

    (Measure, Model & Manage Bioresponses (M3-BIORES), Biosystems Department, KU Leuven, Kasteelpark Arenberg 30, Leuven B-3001, Belgium)

Abstract

The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is the natural host of Puumala virus (PUUV) in vast areas of Europe. PUUV is one of the hantaviruses which are transmitted to humans by infected rodents. PUUV causes a general mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) called nephropathia epidemica (NE). Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases generally display clear spatial patterns due to different space-dependent factors. Land cover influences disease transmission by controlling both the spatial distribution of vectors or hosts, as well as by facilitating the human contact with them. In this study the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM) for predicting the geographical distribution of bank vole population on the basis of spatial climate information is tested. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) is used to model the ecological niche of bank voles in Western Europe. The meteorological data, land cover types and geo-referenced points representing the locations of the bank voles (latitude/longitude) in the study area are used as the primary model input value. The predictive accuracy of the bank vole ecologic niche model was significant (training accuracy of 86%). The output of the GARP models based on the 50% subsets of points used for testing the model showed an accuracy of 75%. Compared with random models, the probability of such high predictivity was low (χ 2 tests, p < 10 −6 ). As such, the GARP models were predictive and the used ecologic niche model indeed indicates the ecologic requirements of bank voles. This approach successfully identified the areas of infection risk across the study area. The result suggests that the niche modelling approach can be implemented in a next step towards the development of new tools for monitoring the bank vole’s population.

Suggested Citation

  • Sara Amirpour Haredasht & Miguel Barrios & Jamshid Farifteh & Piet Maes & Jan Clement & Willem W. Verstraeten & Katrien Tersago & Marc Van Ranst & Pol Coppin & Daniel Berckmans & Jean-Marie Aerts, 2013. "Ecological Niche Modelling of Bank Voles in Western Europe," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-16, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:10:y:2013:i:2:p:499-514:d:23157
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Skjøth, Carsten A. & Geels, Camilla & Hvidberg, Martin & Hertel, Ole & Brandt, Jørgen & Frohn, Lise M. & Hansen, Kaj M. & Hedegaard, Gitte B. & Christensen, Jesper H. & Moseholm, L., 2008. "An inventory of tree species in Europe—An essential data input for air pollution modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 217(3), pages 292-304.
    2. José Miguel Barrios & Willem W. Verstraeten & Piet Maes & Jan Clement & Jean-Marie Aerts & Sara Amirpour Haredasht & Julie Wambacq & Katrien Lagrou & Geneviève Ducoffre & Marc Van Ranst & Daniel Berck, 2010. "Satellite Derived Forest Phenology and Its Relation with Nephropathia Epidemica in Belgium," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-15, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Min Xu & Chunxiang Cao & Qun Li & Peng Jia & Jian Zhao, 2016. "Ecological Niche Modeling of Risk Factors for H7N9 Human Infection in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-12, June.

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