IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jgames/v15y2024i6p40-d1531311.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian Fictitious Play in Oligopoly: The Case of Risk-Averse Agents

Author

Listed:
  • Julide Yazar

    (Department of Economics, Ohio Wesleyan University, Delaware, OH 43015, USA)

Abstract

A number of learning models have been suggested to analyze the repeated interaction of boundedly rational agents competing in oligopolistic markets. The agents form a model of the environment that they are competing in, which includes the market demand and price formation process, as well as their expectations of their rivals’ actions. The agents update their model based on the observed output and price realizations and then choose their next period output levels according to an optimization criterion. In previous works, the global dynamics of price movement have been analyzed when risk-neutral agents maximize their expected rewards at each round. However, in many practical settings, agents may be concerned with the risk or uncertainty in their reward stream, in addition to the expected value of the future rewards. Learning in oligopoly models for the case of risk-averse agents has received much less attention. In this paper, we present a novel learning model that extends fictitious play learning to continuous strategy spaces where agents combine their prior beliefs with market price realizations in previous periods to learn the mean and the variance of the aggregate supply function of the rival firms in a Bayesian framework. Next, each firm maximizes a linear combination of the expected value of the profit and a penalty term for the variance of the returns. Specifically, each agent assumes that the aggregate supply of the remaining agents is sampled from a parametric distribution employing a normal-inverse gamma prior. We prove the convergence of the proposed dynamics and present simulation results to compare the proposed learning rule to the traditional best response dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Julide Yazar, 2024. "Bayesian Fictitious Play in Oligopoly: The Case of Risk-Averse Agents," Games, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-15, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jgames:v:15:y:2024:i:6:p:40-:d:1531311
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4336/15/6/40/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4336/15/6/40/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rassenti, Stephen & Reynolds, Stanley S. & Smith, Vernon L. & Szidarovszky, Ferenc, 2000. "Adaptation and convergence of behavior in repeated experimental Cournot games," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 117-146, February.
    2. Milidonis, Andreas & Stathopoulos, Konstantinos, 2014. "Managerial Incentives, Risk Aversion, and Debt," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 453-481, April.
    3. Asplund, Marcus, 2002. "Risk-averse firms in oligopoly," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 995-1012, September.
    4. Brown-Kruse, Jamie, et al, 1994. "Bertrand-Edgeworth Competition in Experimental Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 343-372, March.
    5. Steffen Huck & Hans-Theo Normann & Jörg Oechssler, 2002. "Stability of the Cournot process - experimental evidence," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 31(1), pages 123-136.
    6. R. D. Theocharis, 1960. "On the Stability of the Cournot Solution on the Oligopoly Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 27(2), pages 133-134.
    7. Thomas Riechmann, 2006. "Cournot or Walras? Long-Run Results in Oligopoly Games," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 162(4), pages 702-720, December.
    8. Cheng Zhang & Le Luo, 2021. "Board diversity and risk-taking of family firms: Evidence from China," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1569-1590, December.
    9. Huck, Steffen & Normann, Hans-Theo & Oechssler, Jorg, 1999. "Learning in Cournot Oligopoly--An Experiment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages 80-95, March.
    10. Monderer, Dov & Shapley, Lloyd S., 1996. "Fictitious Play Property for Games with Identical Interests," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 258-265, January.
    11. Thorlund-Petersen, Lars, 1990. "Iterative computation of cournot equilibrium," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 61-75, March.
    12. Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine, 1998. "The Theory of Learning in Games," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061945, December.
    13. Cox, James C. & Walker, Mark, 1998. "Learning to play Cournot duopoly strategies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 141-161, August.
    14. James Bergin & Dan Bernhardt, 2004. "Comparative Learning Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 431-465, May.
    15. Bischi, Gian Italo & Naimzada, Ahmad K. & Sbragia, Lucia, 2007. "Oligopoly games with Local Monopolistic Approximation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 371-388, March.
    16. Gian Italo Bischi & Carl Chiarella & Michael Kopel & Ferenc Szidarovszky, 2010. "Nonlinear Oligopolies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-02106-0, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cars H. Hommes & Marius I. Ochea & Jan Tuinstra, 2018. "Evolutionary Competition Between Adjustment Processes in Cournot Oligopoly: Instability and Complex Dynamics," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 822-843, December.
    2. Troy Tassier, 2013. "Handbook of Research on Complexity, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Edward Elgar," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 132-133.
    3. Hommes, C.H. & Ochea, M. & Tuinstra, J., 2011. "On the stability of the Cournot equilibrium: An evolutionary approach," CeNDEF Working Papers 11-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    4. Antonio Doria, Francisco, 2011. "J.B. Rosser Jr. , Handbook of Research on Complexity, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK--Northampton, MA, USA (2009) 436 + viii pp., index, ISBN 978 1 84542 089 5 (cased)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 196-204, April.
    5. Jan Potters & Sigrid Suetens, 2013. "Oligopoly Experiments In The Current Millennium," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 439-460, July.
    6. Davis, Douglas, 2011. "Behavioral convergence properties of Cournot and Bertrand markets: An experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 443-458.
    7. Steffen Huck & Hans-Theo Normann & Jörg Oechssler, 2002. "Stability of the Cournot process - experimental evidence," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 31(1), pages 123-136.
    8. Argenton, Cédric & Ivanova-Stenzel, Radosveta & Müller, Wieland, 2024. "Cournot meets Bayes-Nash: A discontinuity in behavior in finitely repeated duopoly games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 1-12.
    9. Rassenti, Stephen & Reynolds, Stanley S. & Smith, Vernon L. & Szidarovszky, Ferenc, 2000. "Adaptation and convergence of behavior in repeated experimental Cournot games," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 117-146, February.
    10. Anufriev, Mikhail & Kopányi, Dávid, 2018. "Oligopoly game: Price makers meet price takers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 84-103.
    11. Junyi Xu, 2021. "Reinforcement Learning in a Cournot Oligopoly Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(4), pages 1001-1024, December.
    12. Benaïm, Michel & Hofbauer, Josef & Hopkins, Ed, 2009. "Learning in games with unstable equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(4), pages 1694-1709, July.
    13. Huck, Steffen & Normann, Hans-Theo & Oechssler, Jorg, 2004. "Two are few and four are many: number effects in experimental oligopolies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 435-446, April.
    14. Bigoni, Maria & Fort, Margherita, 2013. "Information and learning in oligopoly: An experiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 192-214.
    15. Le Coq, Chloé & Sturluson, Jon Thor, 2012. "Does opponents’ experience matter? Experimental evidence from a quantity precommitment game," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 265-277.
    16. Cerboni Baiardi, Lorenzo & Naimzada, Ahmad K., 2019. "An oligopoly model with rational and imitation rules," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 254-278.
    17. Vallée, Thomas & YIldIzoglu, Murat, 2009. "Convergence in the finite Cournot oligopoly with social and individual learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 670-690, November.
    18. Feng, Jun & Saijo, Tatsuyoshi & Shen, Junyi & Qin, Xiangdong, 2018. "Instability in the voluntary contribution mechanism with a quasi-linear payoff function: An experimental analysis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 67-77.
    19. Sarah Mignot & Fabio Tramontana & Frank Westerhoff, 2024. "Complex dynamics in a nonlinear duopoly model with heuristic expectation formation and learning behavior," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 337(3), pages 809-834, June.
    20. Subhasish Dugar & Arnab Mitra, 2016. "Bertrand Competition With Asymmetric Marginal Costs," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(3), pages 1631-1647, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jgames:v:15:y:2024:i:6:p:40-:d:1531311. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.