IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jforec/v5y2023i1p7-169d1034440.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Coffee as an Identifier of Inflation in Selected US Agglomerations

Author

Listed:
  • Marek Vochozka

    (Institute of Technology and Business in Ceske Budejovice, Okružní 517/10, 370 01 České Budějovice, Czech Republic)

  • Svatopluk Janek

    (Institute of Technology and Business in Ceske Budejovice, Okružní 517/10, 370 01 České Budějovice, Czech Republic)

  • Zuzana Rowland

    (Institute of Technology and Business in Ceske Budejovice, Okružní 517/10, 370 01 České Budějovice, Czech Republic)

Abstract

The research goal presented in this paper was to determine the strength of the relationship between the price of coffee traded on ICE Futures US and Consumer Price Indices in the major urban agglomerations of the United States—New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles—and to predict the future development. The results obtained using the Pearson correlation coefficient confirmed a very close direct correlation (r = 0.61 for New York and Chicago; r = 0.57 for Los Angeles) between the price of coffee and inflation. The prediction made using the SARIMA model disrupted the mutual correlation. The price of coffee is likely to anchor at a new level where it will fluctuate; on the other hand, the CPIs showed strong unilateral pro-growth trends. The results could be beneficial for the analysis and creation of policies and further analyses of market structures at the technical level.

Suggested Citation

  • Marek Vochozka & Svatopluk Janek & Zuzana Rowland, 2023. "Coffee as an Identifier of Inflation in Selected US Agglomerations," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:5:y:2023:i:1:p:7-169:d:1034440
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/5/1/7/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/5/1/7/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shahriyar Aliyev & Evžen Kočenda, 2023. "ECB monetary policy and commodity prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 274-304, February.
    2. Andrea Bastianin & Alessandro Lanza & Matteo Manera, 2018. "Economic impacts of El Niño southern oscillation: evidence from the Colombian coffee market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(5), pages 623-633, September.
    3. Stuermer, Martin, 2018. "150 Years Of Boom And Bust: What Drives Mineral Commodity Prices?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 702-717, April.
    4. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2021. "Commodity prices and banking crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    5. Eduardo M. Azevedo & Daniel Gottlieb, 2017. "Perfect Competition in Markets With Adverse Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 67-105, January.
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14980 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Sima Siami‐Namini & Darren Hudson & Adao Alexandre Trindade & Conrad Lyford, 2019. "Commodity price volatility and U.S. monetary policy: Commodity price overshooting revisited," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 200-218, April.
    8. Creti, Anna & Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "On the links between stock and commodity markets' volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 16-28.
    9. Nyarko, Yaw & Pellegrina, Heitor S., 2022. "From bilateral trade to centralized markets: A search model for commodity exchanges in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    10. Kristin J. Forbes, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics: Dead, Dormant, or Determined Abroad?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(2 (Fall)), pages 257-338.
    11. Cindy S.H. Wang & Cheng Hsiao & Hao-Hsiang Yang, 2021. "Market integration, systemic risk and diagnostic tests in large mixed panels," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(8), pages 750-795, September.
    12. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2021. "Forecasting selected energy commodities prices with Bayesian dynamic finite mixtures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    13. Furman, Edward & Zitikis, Ričardas, 2017. "Beyond The Pearson Correlation: Heavy-Tailed Risks, Weighted Gini Correlations, And A Gini-Type Weighted Insurance Pricing Model," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(3), pages 919-942, September.
    14. Bruno Volsi & Tiago Santos Telles & Carlos Eduardo Caldarelli & Marcia Regina Gabardo da Camara, 2019. "The dynamics of coffee production in Brazil," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-15, July.
    15. Westgaard, Sjur & Frydenberg, Stein & Mohanty, Sunil K., 2022. "Fourteen large commodity trading disasters: What happened and what can we learn?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    16. Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo, 2017. "The effect of a Chinese slowdown on inflation in the euro area and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 16-22.
    17. George R. G. Clarke, 2018. "From the editor," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 165-166, March.
    18. Artur Sajnóg & Anna Rogoziñska-Pawe³czyk, 2022. "Executive compensation and the financial performance of Polish listed companies from the corporate governance perspective," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(2), pages 459-480, June.
    19. Chia-Nan Wang & Min-Chun Yu & Nguyen-Nhu-Y Ho & Thi-Nham Le, 2021. "An integrated forecasting model for the coffee bean supply chain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(28), pages 3321-3333, June.
    20. Hongbing Ouyang & Xiaolu Wei & Qiufeng Wu, 2019. "Agricultural commodity futures prices prediction via long- and short-term time series network," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 468-483, January.
    21. Muhammed Abdella Usman & Daniel Callo-Concha, 2021. "Does market access improve dietary diversity and food security? Evidence from Southwestern Ethiopian smallholder coffee producers," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 9(1), pages 1-21, December.
    22. Jaromír Vrbka & Jakub Horák & Tomáš Krulický, 2022. "The influence of world oil prices on the Chinese Yuan exchange rate," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 9(4), pages 439-462, June.
    23. Alicja Seku³a, 2017. "Does system of local government subsidisation fulfil revenue equalisation function? Evidence from Poland," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 8(4), pages 523-535, December.
    24. George R. G. Clarke, 2018. "From the editor," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 315-316, August.
    25. Francisco Roch, 2019. "The adjustment to commodity price shocks," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 437-467, January.
    26. George R. G. Clarke, 2018. "From the editor," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 239-239, May.
    27. Hofert, Marius & Koike, Takaaki, 2019. "Compatibility And Attainability Of Matrices Of Correlation-Based Measures Of Concordance," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 885-918, September.
    28. George R. G. Clarke, 2018. "From the Editor," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 1-4, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Florin Aliu & Jiří Kučera & Simona Hašková, 2023. "Agricultural Commodities in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War: Evidence from Corn, Wheat, Barley, and Sunflower Oil," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-23, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Crodelle, Jennifer & Vallejo, Celeste & Schmidtchen, Markus & Topaz, Chad M. & D'Orsogna, Maria R., 2020. "Impacts of California Proposition 47 on Crime in Santa Monica, CA," SocArXiv mc9wq, Center for Open Science.
    2. Villca, Alfredo, 2022. "Commodity prices, bank balance sheets and macroprudential policies in small open economies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(1).
    3. Baffes, John & Kabundi, Alain, 2023. "Commodity price shocks: Order within chaos?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Chiappari, Mattia & Scotti, Francesco & Flori, Andrea, 2024. "Market responses to spillovers in the energy commodity markets: Evaluating short-term vs. long-term effects and business-as-usual vs. distressed phases," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    5. Andrea Attar & Thomas Mariotti & François Salanié, 2021. "Entry-Proofness and Discriminatory Pricing under Adverse Selection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(8), pages 2623-2659, August.
    6. Aït-Youcef, Camille & Joëts, Marc, 2024. "The role of index traders in the financialization of commodity markets: A behavioral finance approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Vincent Brémond & Emmanuel Hache & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "The Oil Price and Exchange Rate Relationship Revisited: A time-varying VAR parameter approach," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 13(1), pages 97-131, June.
    8. Wu, Kai & Zhu, Jingran & Xu, Mingli & Yang, Lu, 2020. "Can crude oil drive the co-movement in the international stock market? Evidence from partial wavelet coherence analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    9. Jacks, David S. & Stuermer, Martin, 2020. "What drives commodity price booms and busts?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    10. Blot, Christophe & Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien & Saraceno, Francesco, 2015. "Assessing the link between price and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 71-88.
    11. Fabian Knorre & Martin Wagner & Maximilian Grupe, 2021. "Monitoring Cointegrating Polynomial Regressions: Theory and Application to the Environmental Kuznets Curves for Carbon and Sulfur Dioxide Emissions," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-35, March.
    12. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2021. "Are coffee farmers worse off in the long run?," 95th Annual Conference, March 29-30, 2021, Warwick, UK (Hybrid) 311084, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    13. Charles Condevaux & Stéphane Mussard & Téa Ouraga & Guillaume Zambrano, 2020. "Generalized Gini linear and quadratic discriminant analyses," METRON, Springer;Sapienza Università di Roma, vol. 78(2), pages 219-236, August.
    14. Nevrla, Matěj, 2020. "Systemic risk in European financial and energy sectors: Dynamic factor copula approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    15. Natanelov, Valeri & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2013. "Crude oil–corn–ethanol – nexus: A contextual approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 504-513.
    16. Jiawu Dai & Liurui Deng & Lan Yang, 2021. "Testing the absorber hypothesis of exchange rates for the overshooting of agricultural prices in China," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 67(8), pages 327-336.
    17. Morema, Kgotso & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2020. "The impact of oil and gold price fluctuations on the South African equity market: Volatility spillovers and financial policy implications," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    18. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-503 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Tomoyuki Yagi & Yoshiyuki Kurachi & Masato Takahashi & Kotone Yamada & Hiroshi Kawata, 2022. "Pass-Through of Cost-Push Pressures to Consumer Prices," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-17, Bank of Japan.
    20. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2020. "Dynamic frequency connectedness between oil and natural gas volatilities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 181-189.
    21. Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie & Razafindrabe, Tovonony, 2017. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 313-326.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:5:y:2023:i:1:p:7-169:d:1034440. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.