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Ecological Forecasting and Operational Information Systems Support Sustainable Ocean Management

Author

Listed:
  • Chaojiao Sun

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia)

  • Alistair J. Hobday

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS 7000, Australia)

  • Scott A. Condie

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS 7000, Australia
    Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7004, Australia)

  • Mark E. Baird

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS 7000, Australia)

  • J. Paige Eveson

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS 7000, Australia)

  • Jason R. Hartog

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS 7000, Australia)

  • Anthony J. Richardson

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Brisbane, QLD 4067, Australia
    School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia)

  • Andrew D. L. Steven

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Brisbane, QLD 4067, Australia)

  • Karen Wild-Allen

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS 7000, Australia)

  • Russell C. Babcock

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Brisbane, QLD 4067, Australia)

  • Dezhou Yang

    (Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS), 7 Nanhai Road, Qingdao 266071, China)

  • Rencheng Yu

    (Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS), 7 Nanhai Road, Qingdao 266071, China)

  • Mathieu Mongin

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS 7000, Australia)

Abstract

In times of rapid change and rising human pressures on marine systems, information about the future state of the ocean can provide decision-makers with time to avoid adverse impacts and maximise opportunities. An ecological forecast predicts changes in ecosystems and its components due to environmental forcing such as climate variability and change, extreme weather conditions, pollution, or habitat change. Here, we summarise examples from several sectors and a range of locations. We describe the need, approach, forecast performance, delivery system, and end user uptake. This examination shows that near-term ecological forecasts are needed by end users, decisions are being made based on forecasts, and there is an urgent need to develop operational information systems to support sustainable ocean management. An operational information system is critical for connecting to decision makers and providing an enduring approach to forecasting and proactive decision making. These operational systems require significant investment and ongoing maintenance but are key to delivering ecological forecasts for societal benefits. Iterative forecasting practices could provide continuous improvement by incorporating evaluation and feedback to overcome the limitations of the imperfect model and incomplete observations to achieve better forecast outcomes and accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Chaojiao Sun & Alistair J. Hobday & Scott A. Condie & Mark E. Baird & J. Paige Eveson & Jason R. Hartog & Anthony J. Richardson & Andrew D. L. Steven & Karen Wild-Allen & Russell C. Babcock & Dezhou Y, 2022. "Ecological Forecasting and Operational Information Systems Support Sustainable Ocean Management," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-29, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:4:y:2022:i:4:p:57-1079:d:1006180
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Baird, Mark E. & Mongin, Mathieu & Rizwi, Farhan & Bay, Line K. & Cantin, Neal E. & Soja-Woźniak, Monika & Skerratt, Jennifer, 2018. "A mechanistic model of coral bleaching due to temperature-mediated light-driven reactive oxygen build-up in zooxanthellae," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 386(C), pages 20-37.
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