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Tobacco Endgame Simulation Modelling: Assessing the Impact of Policy Changes on Smoking Prevalence in 2035

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  • Michael Chaiton

    (Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5T 3M7, Canada
    Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON M5S 2S1, Canada)

  • Jolene Dubray

    (Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5T 3M7, Canada)

  • G. Emmanuel Guindon

    (Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada)

  • Robert Schwartz

    (Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5T 3M7, Canada
    Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON M5S 2S1, Canada)

Abstract

Smoking causes substantial amount of mortality and morbidity. This article presents the findings from simulation models that projected the impact of five potential Tobacco Endgame strategies on smoking prevalence in Ontario by 2035 and expected impact of smoking prevalence “less than 5 by 35” on tax revenue. We used Ontario SimSmoke simulation for modelling the expected impact of four strategies: plain packaging, free cessation services, decreasing the number of tobacco outlets, and increasing tobacco taxes. Separate models were used to project the impact of increasing the minimum age to legally purchase tobacco to 21 years on smoking prevalence and impact of price and tax increase to achieve “less than 5 by 35” on taxation revenue. The combined effect of four strategies in Ontario SimSmoke Model are expected to reduce smoking prevalence by 8.5% in 2035. Increasing tobacco taxes had the greatest independent predicted decrease in smoking prevalence (2.8%) followed by raised minimum age for legal purchase to 21 years (2.4%), decreasing tobacco outlets (1.5%), free cessation services (0.7%), and plain packaging (0.6%). Increasing tobacco excise tax and prices are projected to have minimal impact on taxation revenue, with a decrease from 1.5 billion to 1.2 billion annual tax receipts.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Chaiton & Jolene Dubray & G. Emmanuel Guindon & Robert Schwartz, 2021. "Tobacco Endgame Simulation Modelling: Assessing the Impact of Policy Changes on Smoking Prevalence in 2035," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-9, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:3:y:2021:i:2:p:17-275:d:534898
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guindon, G.E. & Paraje, G.R. & Chaloupka, F.J., 2015. "The impact of prices and taxes on the use of tobacco products in latin america and the caribbean," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 105(3), pages 9-19.
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    3. Levy, D.T. & Cho, S.-I. & Kim, Y.-M. & Park, S. & Suh, M.-K. & Kam, S., 2010. "SimSmoke model evaluation of the effect of tobacco control policies in Korea: The unknown success story," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 100(7), pages 1267-1273.
    4. Gruber, Jonathan & Sen, Anindya & Stabile, Mark, 2003. "Estimating price elasticities when there is smuggling: the sensitivity of smoking to price in Canada," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 821-842, September.
    5. Chaloupka, Frank J. & Warner, Kenneth E., 2000. "The economics of smoking," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 29, pages 1539-1627, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sonia Leva, 2022. "Editorial for Special Issue: “Feature Papers of Forecasting 2021”," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-3, March.

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