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Wind Power Grid Connected Capacity Prediction Using LSSVM Optimized by the Bat Algorithm

Author

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  • Qunli Wu

    (Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China)

  • Chenyang Peng

    (Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China)

Abstract

Given the stochastic nature of wind, wind power grid-connected capacity prediction plays an essential role in coping with the challenge of balancing supply and demand. Accurate forecasting methods make enormous contribution to mapping wind power strategy, power dispatching and sustainable development of wind power industry. This study proposes a bat algorithm (BA)–least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) hybrid model to improve prediction performance. In order to select input of LSSVM effectively, Stationarity, Cointegration and Granger causality tests are conducted to examine the influence of installed capacity with different lags, and partial autocorrelation analysis is employed to investigate the inner relationship of grid-connected capacity. The parameters in LSSVM are optimized by BA to validate the learning ability and generalization of LSSVM. Multiple model sufficiency evaluation methods are utilized. The research results reveal that the accuracy improvement of the present approach can reach about 20% compared to other single or hybrid models.

Suggested Citation

  • Qunli Wu & Chenyang Peng, 2015. "Wind Power Grid Connected Capacity Prediction Using LSSVM Optimized by the Bat Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:8:y:2015:i:12:p:12428-14360:d:60861
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Peng Lu & Lin Ye & Bohao Sun & Cihang Zhang & Yongning Zhao & Jingzhu Teng, 2018. "A New Hybrid Prediction Method of Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on EEMD-PE and LSSVM Optimized by the GSA," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-23, March.
    3. Shoudao Huang & Yang Zhang & Sijia Hu, 2016. "Stator Current Harmonic Reduction in a Novel Half Quasi-Z-Source Wind Power Generation System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-15, September.
    4. Feng, Qianqian & Sun, Xiaolei & Hao, Jun & Li, Jianping, 2021. "Predictability dynamics of multifactor-influenced installed capacity: A perspective of country clustering," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    5. Dongxiao Niu & Shuyu Dai, 2017. "A Short-Term Load Forecasting Model with a Modified Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm and Least Squares Support Vector Machine Based on the Denoising Method of Empirical Mode Decomposition and Gre," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Feng, Cong & Cui, Mingjian & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Zhang, Jie, 2017. "A data-driven multi-model methodology with deep feature selection for short-term wind forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1245-1257.

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