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Optimal Operation of Combined Heat and Power System Based on Forecasted Energy Prices in Real-Time Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Chenghong Gu

    (Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, University of Bath, Bath BA2 7AY, UK)

  • Da Xie

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China)

  • Junbo Sun

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China)

  • Xitian Wang

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China)

  • Qian Ai

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China)

Abstract

This paper develops a discrete operation optimization model for combined heat and powers (CHPs) in deregulated energy markets to maximize owners’ profits, where energy price forecasting is included. First, a single input and multi-output (SIMO) model for typical CHPs is established, considering the varying ratio between heat and electricity outputs at different loading levels. Then, the energy prices are forecasted with a gray forecasting model and revised in real-time based on the actual prices by using the least squares method. At last, a discrete optimization model and corresponding dynamic programming algorithm are developed to design the optimal operation strategies for CHPs in real-time. Based on the forecasted prices, the potential operating strategy which may produce the maximum profits is pre-developed. Dynamic modification is then conducted to adjust the pre-developed operating strategy after the actual prices are known. The proposed method is implemented on a 1 MW CHP on a typical day. Results show the optimized profits comply well with those derived from real-time prices after considering dynamic modification process.

Suggested Citation

  • Chenghong Gu & Da Xie & Junbo Sun & Xitian Wang & Qian Ai, 2015. "Optimal Operation of Combined Heat and Power System Based on Forecasted Energy Prices in Real-Time Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:8:y:2015:i:12:p:12427-14345:d:60857
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    4. Pavel Atănăsoae, 2022. "Allocation of Joint Costs and Price Setting for Electricity and Heat Generated in Cogeneration," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, December.
    5. Szega, Marcin & Żymełka, Piotr & Janda, Tomasz, 2022. "Improving the accuracy of electricity and heat production forecasting in a supervision computer system of a selected gas-fired CHP plant operation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).
    6. Da Xie & Yupu Lu & Junbo Sun & Chenghong Gu & Jilai Yu, 2016. "Optimal Operation of Network-Connected Combined Heat and Powers for Customer Profit Maximization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-17, June.
    7. Yu Liu & Shan Gao & Xin Zhao & Chao Zhang & Ningyu Zhang, 2017. "Coordinated Operation and Control of Combined Electricity and Natural Gas Systems with Thermal Storage," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-25, July.
    8. Jan Martin Zepter & Jan Engelhardt & Tatiana Gabderakhmanova & Mattia Marinelli, 2021. "Empirical Validation of a Biogas Plant Simulation Model and Analysis of Biogas Upgrading Potentials," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-19, April.
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