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Comparison and Analysis of Macro Energy Scenarios in China and a Decomposition-Based Approach to Quantifying the Impacts of Economic and Social Development

Author

Listed:
  • Lingying Pan

    (State Key Lab of Power Systems, Department of Thermal Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Zheng Guo

    (State Key Lab of Power Systems, Department of Thermal Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Pei Liu

    (State Key Lab of Power Systems, Department of Thermal Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Linwei Ma

    (State Key Lab of Power Systems, Department of Thermal Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Zheng Li

    (State Key Lab of Power Systems, Department of Thermal Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

Abstract

China has been experiencing a rapid urbanization and industrialization progress with continuous increase in primary energy consumption. Meanwhile, China’s changing economic and society structure also introduces huge uncertainty to its future energy demand. Many energy research institutes periodically publish projections of macro energy scenarios of China up to 2030 and 2050, but these projections differ from one another in terms of total amount of energy consumption and energy flows amongst sectors. In this work, we firstly illustrate major differences between existing scenarios based on a literature survey. We then compare and analyze the different projection methods, key policy assumptions, and other boundary conditions adopted in obtaining these scenarios. Then an index decomposition method is introduced with the purpose of decoupling the impacts of economic growth and population growth on the projection to energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Our results illustrate that projections from domestic research institutes tend to be more optimistic regarding clean and sustainable utilization of coal in the future. Also, projections on energy consumption in China are exclusively linearly dependent on projections of economic and population growth in most scenarios, whilst in some other scenarios the impacts of oil price, international trade, and other drivers are also rather significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Lingying Pan & Zheng Guo & Pei Liu & Linwei Ma & Zheng Li, 2013. "Comparison and Analysis of Macro Energy Scenarios in China and a Decomposition-Based Approach to Quantifying the Impacts of Economic and Social Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(7), pages 1-22, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:6:y:2013:i:7:p:3444-3465:d:27212
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wood, Richard & Lenzen, Manfred, 2009. "Structural path decomposition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 335-341, May.
    2. Bin Su & B. W. Ang, 2012. "Structural Decomposition Analysis Applied To Energy And Emissions: Aggregation Issues," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 299-317, March.
    3. Su, Bin & Ang, B.W., 2012. "Structural decomposition analysis applied to energy and emissions: Some methodological developments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 177-188.
    4. Ang, B.W. & Zhang, F.Q., 2000. "A survey of index decomposition analysis in energy and environmental studies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 1149-1176.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhong-Kai Feng & Wen-Jing Niu & Jian-Zhong Zhou & Chun-Tian Cheng & Hui Qin & Zhi-Qiang Jiang, 2017. "Parallel Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm for Short-Term Economic Environmental Hydrothermal Scheduling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, January.
    2. Zheng Guo & Pei Liu & Linwei Ma & Zheng Li, 2015. "Effects of Low-Carbon Technologies and End-Use Electrification on Energy-Related Greenhouse Gases Mitigation in China by 2050," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-24, July.
    3. Jian Sun & Jinniu Wang & Yanqiang Wei & Yurui Li & Miao Liu, 2016. "The Haze Nightmare Following the Economic Boom in China: Dilemma and Tradeoffs," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-12, April.
    4. Mingxiang Deng & Wei Li & Yan Hu, 2016. "Decomposing Industrial Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions in Yunnan Province, China: Switching to Low-Carbon Economic Growth," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, January.
    5. Seiji Matsuo & Masaya Suzuki & Teruaki Shimazu, 2022. "Proposal of Agro-Industrial Integration Heat Transport System Using High-Performance Medium for the Realization of a Sustainable Society," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-19, February.
    6. Wei Li & Zhijie Jia, 2017. "Carbon tax, emission trading, or the mixed policy: which is the most effective strategy for climate change mitigation in China?," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 973-992, August.

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