IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v18y2025i1p158-d1559304.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Feasibility Analysis of Wind Energy Potential and Seasonal Forecasting Trends in Thatta District: A Project to Combat the Energy Crisis in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Jahangeer Khan Bhutto

    (Institute of Natural Disaster Research, School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China)

  • Zhijun Tong

    (Institute of Natural Disaster Research, School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China)

  • Tayyab Raza Fraz

    (Department of Statistics, University of Karachi, Karachi 75270, Pakistan)

  • Mazhar Baloch

    (College of Engineering, A’Sharqiyah University, Ibra 400, Oman)

  • Haider Ali

    (Engineering Research Center of Low-Carbon Treatment and Green Development, State Environmental Protection Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China)

  • Jiquan Zhang

    (Institute of Natural Disaster Research, School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China)

  • Xingpeng Liu

    (Institute of Natural Disaster Research, School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
    Key Laboratory of GIS and RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Xinjiang, Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Yousef A. Al-Masnay

    (Key Laboratory of GIS and RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Xinjiang, Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China)

Abstract

Wind energy has emerged as a viable alternative to fossil fuels due to its clean and cost-effective nature. Pakistan, facing growing energy demands and the imperative to reduce carbon emissions, has invested significantly in wind power to supply electric power in rural and urban communities, particularly in the Thatta district of Sindh Province of Pakistan. However, the sustainability of wind energy generation is contingent upon consistent and sufficient wind resources. This study examines the wind potential of Thatta district from 2004 to 2023 to assess its suitability for large-scale wind power development. To evaluate the wind potential of Thatta district, seasonal wind speed and direction data were collected and analyzed. Wind shear at different heights was determined using the power law, and wind potential maps were generated using GIS interpolation techniques. Betz’s law was employed to assess wind turbine power density. Box–Jenkins ARIMA and SARIMA models were applied to predict future wind patterns. This study revealed that Thatta district experienced sufficient wind speeds during the study period, with averages of 9.7 m/s, 7.6 m/s, 7.4 m/s, and 4.8 m/s for summer, autumn, spring, and winter, respectively. However, a concerning trend of decreasing wind speeds has been observed since 2009. The most significant reductions occurred in summer, coinciding with Pakistan’s peak electricity demand. While Thatta district has historically demonstrated potential for wind energy, the declining wind speeds pose a challenge to the sustainability of wind power projects. Further research is necessary to identify the causes of this trend and to explore mitigation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jahangeer Khan Bhutto & Zhijun Tong & Tayyab Raza Fraz & Mazhar Baloch & Haider Ali & Jiquan Zhang & Xingpeng Liu & Yousef A. Al-Masnay, 2025. "A Feasibility Analysis of Wind Energy Potential and Seasonal Forecasting Trends in Thatta District: A Project to Combat the Energy Crisis in Pakistan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(1), pages 1-21, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:1:p:158-:d:1559304
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/1/158/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/1/158/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khahro, Shahnawaz Farhan & Tabbassum, Kavita & Mahmood Soomro, Amir & Liao, Xiaozhong & Alvi, Muhammad Bux & Dong, Lei & Manzoor, M. Farhan, 2014. "Techno-economical evaluation of wind energy potential and analysis of power generation from wind at Gharo, Sindh Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 460-474.
    2. Dmitriy N. Karamov & Pavel V. Ilyushin & Konstantin V. Suslov, 2022. "Electrification of Rural Remote Areas Using Renewable Energy Sources: Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-13, August.
    3. Ghafoor, Abdul & Rehman, Tanzeel ur & Munir, Anjum & Ahmad, Manzoor & Iqbal, Muhammad, 2016. "Current status and overview of renewable energy potential in Pakistan for continuous energy sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1332-1342.
    4. Khan, Hassan Abbas & Ahmad, Husnain Fateh & Nasir, Mashood & Nadeem, Muhammad Fatiq & Zaffar, Nauman Ahmed, 2018. "Decentralised electric power delivery for rural electrification in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 312-323.
    5. Fleming, P. D. & Probert, S. D., 1984. "The evolution of wind-turbines: An historical review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 163-177.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maqbool, Rashid, 2018. "Efficiency and effectiveness of factors affecting renewable energy projects; an empirical perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 944-956.
    2. Ilkiliç, Cumali & Aydin, Hüseyin, 2015. "Wind power potential and usage in the coastal regions of Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 78-86.
    3. Azreen Benazir Abdullah Ahmed & Sakib Amin & Charles Harvie & Rabindra Nepal, 2021. "The Nexus Between Energy and Trade in South Asia: A Panel Analysis," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(2), pages 134-151, June.
    4. Zhu, Wei Jun & Shen, Wen Zhong & Sørensen, Jens Nørkær & Yang, Hua, 2017. "Verification of a novel innovative blade root design for wind turbines using a hybrid numerical method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1661-1670.
    5. Mesbahi, Tedjani & Ouari, Ahmed & Ghennam, Tarak & Berkouk, El Madjid & Rizoug, Nassim & Mesbahi, Nadhir & Meradji, Moudrik, 2014. "A stand-alone wind power supply with a Li-ion battery energy storage system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 204-213.
    6. Kaldellis, John K. & Zafirakis, D., 2011. "The wind energy (r)evolution: A short review of a long history," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1887-1901.
    7. Jha, Sunil Kr. & Bilalovic, Jasmin & Jha, Anju & Patel, Nilesh & Zhang, Han, 2017. "Renewable energy: Present research and future scope of Artificial Intelligence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 297-317.
    8. Karolina Talarek & Anna Knitter-Piątkowska & Tomasz Garbowski, 2022. "Wind Parks in Poland—New Challenges and Perspectives," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-25, September.
    9. Shabbir, Noman & Usman, Muhammad & Jawad, Muhammad & Zafar, Muhammad H. & Iqbal, Muhammad N. & Kütt, Lauri, 2020. "Economic analysis and impact on national grid by domestic photovoltaic system installations in Pakistan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 509-521.
    10. Ewa Chomać-Pierzecka & Hubert Gąsiński & Joanna Rogozińska-Mitrut & Dariusz Soboń & Sebastian Zupok, 2023. "Review of Selected Aspects of Wind Energy Market Development in Poland and Lithuania in the Face of Current Challenges," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, January.
    11. Han, Liyan & Liu, Yang & Lin, Qiang & Huang, Gubo, 2015. "Valuing carbon assets for high-tech with application to the wind energy industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 347-358.
    12. Ali, Fahad & Ahmar, Muhammad & Jiang, Yuexiang & AlAhmad, Mohammad, 2021. "A techno-economic assessment of hybrid energy systems in rural Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PA).
    13. Amin, Sakib & Jamasb, Tooraj & Nepal, Rabindra, 2021. "Regulatory reform and the relative efficacy of government versus private investment on energy consumption in South Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 421-433.
    14. Sun, Bohan & Gao, Ke & Liu, Shuai & Wei, Qiaoqiao & Wang, Hui, 2023. "Assessing the performance and economic viability of solar home systems: A way forward towards clean energy exploration and consumption," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 409-419.
    15. Makena Coffman & Paul Bernstein, 2015. "Linking Hawaii’s Islands with wind energy," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(1), pages 1-21, January.
    16. Ashfaq, Asad & Ianakiev, Anton, 2018. "Features of fully integrated renewable energy atlas for Pakistan; wind, solar and cooling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 14-27.
    17. Liang, Shuai & Wang, Peng & Jia, Cunlu & Zhu, Jialan, 2023. "Studying green financing, factor allocation efficiency, and regional productivity growth in renewable energy industries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 130-139.
    18. Riaz Uddin & Abdurrahman Javid Shaikh & Hashim Raza Khan & Muhammad Ayaz Shirazi & Athar Rashid & Saad Ahmed Qazi, 2021. "Renewable Energy Perspectives of Pakistan and Turkey: Current Analysis and Policy Recommendations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-28, March.
    19. Allouhi, A. & Zamzoum, O. & Islam, M.R. & Saidur, R. & Kousksou, T. & Jamil, A. & Derouich, A., 2017. "Evaluation of wind energy potential in Morocco's coastal regions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 311-324.
    20. Solangi, Yasir Ahmed & Longsheng, Cheng & Shah, Syed Ahsan Ali, 2021. "Assessing and overcoming the renewable energy barriers for sustainable development in Pakistan: An integrated AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 209-222.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:18:y:2025:i:1:p:158-:d:1559304. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.