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Sensitivity Assessment of Building Energy Performance Simulations Using MARS Meta-Modeling in Combination with Sobol’ Method

Author

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  • Amin Nouri

    (Institute of Energy Efficiency and Sustainable Building (E3D), RWTH Aachen University, 52074 Aachen, Germany)

  • Christoph van Treeck

    (Institute of Energy Efficiency and Sustainable Building (E3D), RWTH Aachen University, 52074 Aachen, Germany)

  • Jérôme Frisch

    (Institute of Energy Efficiency and Sustainable Building (E3D), RWTH Aachen University, 52074 Aachen, Germany)

Abstract

Large discrepancies can occur between building energy performance simulation (BEPS) outputs and reference data. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are performed to discover the significant contributions of each input parameter to these discrepancies. Variance-based sensitivity analyses typically require many stochastic simulations, which is computationally demanding (especially in the case of the large number of input parameters involved in the analysis). To overcome these impediments, this study proposes a reliable meta-model-based sensitivity analysis, including validation, Morris’ method, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) meta-modeling, and Sobol’ method, to identify the most influential input parameters on BEPS prediction (annual energy consumption) at the early building design process. A hypothetical building is used to analyze the proposed methodology. Six statistical metrics are applied to verify and quantify the accuracy of the model. It is concluded that the cooling set-point temperature and g-value of the window are the most influential input parameters for the analyzed case study.

Suggested Citation

  • Amin Nouri & Christoph van Treeck & Jérôme Frisch, 2024. "Sensitivity Assessment of Building Energy Performance Simulations Using MARS Meta-Modeling in Combination with Sobol’ Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-24, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:3:p:695-:d:1330898
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    References listed on IDEAS

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