IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2024i23p6158-d1538324.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparing Long-Term Power Sector Pathways in Viet Nam: A Simple Cost-Optimization Approach with OSeMOSYS

Author

Listed:
  • Naomi Tan

    (Centre for Sustainable Transitions: Energy, Environment and Resilience, Department of Geography and Environment, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK
    Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK)

  • John Harrison

    (Centre for Sustainable Transitions: Energy, Environment and Resilience, Department of Geography and Environment, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK)

  • Mark Howells

    (Centre for Sustainable Transitions: Energy, Environment and Resilience, Department of Geography and Environment, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UK
    Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK)

Abstract

Viet Nam is at a critical juncture in planning for its future energy mix due to its fast-growing economy and recent climate commitments. This paper reviews the opportunities and challenges towards a clean energy transition in Viet Nam. Focusing on the power system, this study incorporates the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) to explore six different energy scenarios based on existing plans and proposed targets: (i) Power Development Plan VII (revised); (ii) Power Development Plan VIII (draft); (iii) Renewable Energy Development Strategy; (iv) Renewable-Led Pathway; (v) Net Zero; and (vi) Clean Efficient Transition. These scenarios assess trade-offs and synergies of policy decisions, offering insights into potential energy mix alternatives through 2050. Key findings highlight that a fossil fuel phase-out by 2050, supported by approximately 1100 PJ of solar technologies and electricity imports by 2050, aligns with climate commitments and ensures energy security. Energy-efficient technologies could also reduce electricity consumption by 20%, cutting costs and emissions by USD 18 billion and 37 Mton CO 2 e, respectively. Based on modelling, this study emphasizes renewable energy prioritization, energy efficiency, fossil fuel phase-out, and reinforced emission limits as recommendations to allow Viet Nam to achieve its climate goals. Overall, this paper provides a comprehensive assessment that enhances transparency and reproducibility, supporting the optimal pathway for the development of Viet Nam’s energy sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Naomi Tan & John Harrison & Mark Howells, 2024. "Comparing Long-Term Power Sector Pathways in Viet Nam: A Simple Cost-Optimization Approach with OSeMOSYS," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-24, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:23:p:6158-:d:1538324
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/23/6158/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/23/6158/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Burke, Paul J. & Widnyana, Jinnie & Anjum, Zeba & Aisbett, Emma & Resosudarmo, Budy & Baldwin, Kenneth G.H., 2019. "Overcoming barriers to solar and wind energy adoption in two Asian giants: India and Indonesia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1216-1228.
    2. Nong, Duy & Nguyen, Duong Binh & Nguyen, Trung H. & Wang, Can & Siriwardana, Mahinda, 2020. "A stronger energy strategy for a new era of economic development in Vietnam: A quantitative assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Timilsina,Govinda R., 2020. "Demystifying the Costs of Electricity Generation Technologies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9303, The World Bank.
    4. Rezessy, Silvia & Bertoldi, Paolo, 2011. "Voluntary agreements in the field of energy efficiency and emission reduction: Review and analysis of experiences in the European Union," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7121-7129.
    5. Howells, Mark & Rogner, Holger & Strachan, Neil & Heaps, Charles & Huntington, Hillard & Kypreos, Socrates & Hughes, Alison & Silveira, Semida & DeCarolis, Joe & Bazillian, Morgan & Roehrl, Alexander, 2011. "OSeMOSYS: The Open Source Energy Modeling System: An introduction to its ethos, structure and development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5850-5870, October.
    6. Coxhead, Ian & Wattanakuljarus, Anan & Nguyen, Chan V., 2013. "Are Carbon Taxes Good for the Poor? A General Equilibrium Analysis for Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 119-131.
    7. Pusanisa Paiboonsin & Gbemi Oluleye & Mark Howells & Rudolf Yeganyan & Carla Cannone & Simon Patterson, 2023. "Pathways to Clean Energy Transition in Indonesia’s Electricity Sector with Open-Source Energy Modelling System Modelling (OSeMOSYS)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Nong, Duy, 2018. "General equilibrium economy-wide impacts of the increased energy taxes in Vietnam," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 471-481.
    9. Emad Addin Al-Sharafi & Musaed Alhussein & Amjad Ali & Khursheed Aurangzeb, 2023. "Rooftop Solar PV Policy Assessment of Global Best Practices and Lessons Learned for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-20, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nong, Duy & Wang, Can & Al-Amin, Abul Quasem, 2020. "A critical review of energy resources, policies and scientific studies towards a cleaner and more sustainable economy in Vietnam," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    2. Nong, Duy & Nguyen, Duong Binh & Nguyen, Trung H. & Wang, Can & Siriwardana, Mahinda, 2020. "A stronger energy strategy for a new era of economic development in Vietnam: A quantitative assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Tri Purwaningsih, Vitriyani & Widodo, Tri, 2019. "Applying Tax Rate of 33,33% on Primary Energy in Indonesia," MPRA Paper 91315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Nong, Duy & Nguyen, Trung H. & Wang, Can & Van Khuc, Quy, 2020. "The environmental and economic impact of the emissions trading scheme (ETS) in Vietnam," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Trotta, Gianluca, 2020. "Assessing energy efficiency improvements and related energy security and climate benefits in Finland: An ex post multi-sectoral decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    6. Dai, Jiangyu & Wu, Shiqiang & Han, Guoyi & Weinberg, Josh & Xie, Xinghua & Wu, Xiufeng & Song, Xingqiang & Jia, Benyou & Xue, Wanyun & Yang, Qianqian, 2018. "Water-energy nexus: A review of methods and tools for macro-assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 393-408.
    7. Iribarren, Diego & Martín-Gamboa, Mario & Navas-Anguita, Zaira & García-Gusano, Diego & Dufour, Javier, 2020. "Influence of climate change externalities on the sustainability-oriented prioritisation of prospective energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    8. Després, Jacques & Hadjsaid, Nouredine & Criqui, Patrick & Noirot, Isabelle, 2015. "Modelling the impacts of variable renewable sources on the power sector: Reconsidering the typology of energy modelling tools," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 486-495.
    9. Hirsh Bar Gai, Dor & Shittu, Ekundayo & Attanasio, Donna & Weigelt, Carmen & LeBlanc, Saniya & Dehghanian, Payman & Sklar, Scott, 2021. "Examining community solar programs to understand accessibility and investment: Evidence from the U.S," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    10. Flores, Francisco & Feijoo, Felipe & DeStephano, Paelina & Herc, Luka & Pfeifer, Antun & Duić, Neven, 2024. "Assessment of the impacts of renewable energy variability in long-term decarbonization strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).
    11. Edward Wheatcroft & Henry P. Wynn & Victoria Volodina & Chris J. Dent & Kristina Lygnerud, 2021. "Model-Based Contract Design for Low Energy Waste Heat Contracts: The Route to Pricing," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-15, June.
    12. Patrik Thollander & Jenny Palm, 2015. "Industrial Energy Management Decision Making for Improved Energy Efficiency—Strategic System Perspectives and Situated Action in Combination," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-10, June.
    13. Bartholdsen, Hans-Karl & Eidens, Anna & Löffler, Konstantin & Seehaus, Frederik & Wejda, Felix & Burandt, Thorsten & Oei, Pao-Yu & Kemfert, Claudia & Hirschhausen, Christian von, 2019. "Pathways for Germany's Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Towards 2050," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 12(15), pages 1-33.
    14. Yue, Xiufeng & Deane, J.P. & O'Gallachoir, Brian & Rogan, Fionn, 2020. "Identifying decarbonisation opportunities using marginal abatement cost curves and energy system scenario ensembles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    15. Juanpera, M. & Ferrer-Martí, L. & Pastor, R., 2022. "Multi-stage optimization of rural electrification planning at regional level considering multiple criteria. Case study in Nigeria," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    16. Yakut, Aykut Mert & de Bruin, Kelly, 2023. "The importance of having a more realistic welfare transfer determination rule: A CGE analysis for Ireland," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1310-1325.
    17. Teotónio, Carla & Fortes, Patrícia & Roebeling, Peter & Rodriguez, Miguel & Robaina-Alves, Margarita, 2017. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and the power sector in Portugal: A partial equilibrium approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 788-799.
    18. Chang, Miguel & Lund, Henrik & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2023. "Perspectives on purpose-driven coupling of energy system models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    19. Nusrate Aziz & Belayet Hossain & Laura Lamb, 2022. "Does green policy pay dividends?," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 24(2), pages 147-172, April.
    20. Peters, Pedro & da Costa, Vinicius Braga Ferreira & Dias, Bruno Henriques & Bonatto, Benedito Donizeti, 2025. "A holistic analysis of environmental impacts and improvement pathways for the Brazilian electric sector based on long-term planning and life cycle assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 377(PB).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:23:p:6158-:d:1538324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.