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Prediction and Scenario Simulation of Carbon Emissions Peak of Resource-Based Urban Agglomeration with Industrial Clusters—Case of Hubaoe Urban Agglomeration Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

Author

Listed:
  • Wen Yang

    (College of Geographical Sciences, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot 010028, China)

  • Bing Xia

    (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Yu Li

    (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Xiaoming Qi

    (College of Geographical Sciences, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot 010028, China)

  • Jing Zhang

    (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

Abstract

China has implemented a “dual-carbon” policy in response to the Paris Agreement’s global climate change objectives. Hohhot, Baotou, and Ordos (HBO-UA) is a resource-based urban agglomeration that is noteworthy for having significant heavy industry in China. Based on the extended STRIPAT model, which broadens the study indicators into six aspects—population, economics, technology, urbanization, industrial energy, and industrial structure—this paper develops a research framework of “Driving–Predicting–Simulating” for carbon emissions. According to the “one formula for one city” principle, driver models were constructed for Hohhot, Baotou, and Ordos, respectively. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) Population and urbanization are the dominant factors of carbon emissions in HBO-UA, following the economy and industrial energy. (2) Carbon emissions are multifactor-driven in Hohhot, double-factor-driven in Baotou, and single-factor-driven in Ordos. (3) Hohhot can achieve its carbon emissions peak under more efficient and lower policy costs, while Ordo is under great pressure to reduce carbon emissions. (4) We suggest multiple strategies to accomplish the “dual-carbon” goals for resource-based urban agglomeration with industrial clusters. These strategies include fostering diversified consumption by continuously enhancing urban functions, directing the transformation of the industrial structure, and fostering the growth of emerging industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Wen Yang & Bing Xia & Yu Li & Xiaoming Qi & Jing Zhang, 2024. "Prediction and Scenario Simulation of Carbon Emissions Peak of Resource-Based Urban Agglomeration with Industrial Clusters—Case of Hubaoe Urban Agglomeration Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-20, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:22:p:5521-:d:1514199
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wang, Zhaohua & Huang, Wanjing & Chen, Zhongfei, 2019. "The peak of CO2 emissions in China: A new approach using survival models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1099-1108.
    2. Wang, Ping & Wu, Wanshui & Zhu, Bangzhu & Wei, Yiming, 2013. "Examining the impact factors of energy-related CO2 emissions using the STIRPAT model in Guangdong Province, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 65-71.
    3. Feihong Zheng & Yue Niu, 2023. "Environmental Decentralization, Resource Endowment and Urban Industrial Transformation and Upgrading: A Comparison of Resource-Based and Non-Resource-Based Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-20, July.
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