IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2024i22p5521-d1514199.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction and Scenario Simulation of Carbon Emissions Peak of Resource-Based Urban Agglomeration with Industrial Clusters—Case of Hubaoe Urban Agglomeration Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

Author

Listed:
  • Wen Yang

    (College of Geographical Sciences, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot 010028, China)

  • Bing Xia

    (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Yu Li

    (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Xiaoming Qi

    (College of Geographical Sciences, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot 010028, China)

  • Jing Zhang

    (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

Abstract

China has implemented a “dual-carbon” policy in response to the Paris Agreement’s global climate change objectives. Hohhot, Baotou, and Ordos (HBO-UA) is a resource-based urban agglomeration that is noteworthy for having significant heavy industry in China. Based on the extended STRIPAT model, which broadens the study indicators into six aspects—population, economics, technology, urbanization, industrial energy, and industrial structure—this paper develops a research framework of “Driving–Predicting–Simulating” for carbon emissions. According to the “one formula for one city” principle, driver models were constructed for Hohhot, Baotou, and Ordos, respectively. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) Population and urbanization are the dominant factors of carbon emissions in HBO-UA, following the economy and industrial energy. (2) Carbon emissions are multifactor-driven in Hohhot, double-factor-driven in Baotou, and single-factor-driven in Ordos. (3) Hohhot can achieve its carbon emissions peak under more efficient and lower policy costs, while Ordo is under great pressure to reduce carbon emissions. (4) We suggest multiple strategies to accomplish the “dual-carbon” goals for resource-based urban agglomeration with industrial clusters. These strategies include fostering diversified consumption by continuously enhancing urban functions, directing the transformation of the industrial structure, and fostering the growth of emerging industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Wen Yang & Bing Xia & Yu Li & Xiaoming Qi & Jing Zhang, 2024. "Prediction and Scenario Simulation of Carbon Emissions Peak of Resource-Based Urban Agglomeration with Industrial Clusters—Case of Hubaoe Urban Agglomeration Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-20, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:22:p:5521-:d:1514199
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/22/5521/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/22/5521/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Zhaohua & Huang, Wanjing & Chen, Zhongfei, 2019. "The peak of CO2 emissions in China: A new approach using survival models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1099-1108.
    2. Wang, Ping & Wu, Wanshui & Zhu, Bangzhu & Wei, Yiming, 2013. "Examining the impact factors of energy-related CO2 emissions using the STIRPAT model in Guangdong Province, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 65-71.
    3. Feihong Zheng & Yue Niu, 2023. "Environmental Decentralization, Resource Endowment and Urban Industrial Transformation and Upgrading: A Comparison of Resource-Based and Non-Resource-Based Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-20, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhengyun Jiang & Yun Feng & Jinping Song & Chengzhen Song & Xiaodi Zhao & Chi Zhang, 2023. "Study on the Spatial–Temporal Pattern Evolution and Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Industry–City Integration in the Yellow River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Shi, Changfeng & Zhi, Jiaqi & Yao, Xiao & Zhang, Hong & Yu, Yue & Zeng, Qingshun & Li, Luji & Zhang, Yuxi, 2023. "How can China achieve the 2030 carbon peak goal—a crossover analysis based on low-carbon economics and deep learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    3. Roula Inglesi-Lotz & Luis Diez del Corral Morales, 2017. "The Effect of Education on a Country’s Energy Consumption: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries," Working Papers 201733, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Zhao, Feifei & Hu, Zheng & Yi, Ping & Zhao, Xu, 2024. "Does environmental decentralization improve industrial ecology? Evidence from China's Yangtze River Economic Belt," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1250-1270.
    5. Xinxuan Cheng & Longfei Fan & Jiachen Wang, 2018. "Can Energy Structure Optimization, Industrial Structure Changes, Technological Improvements, and Central and Local Governance Effectively Reduce Atmospheric Pollution in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Zhang, Kun & Cao, Yiyi & Liu, Zhouyi & Zhou, Qi & Qu, Shen & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2024. "Allocation of carbon emission responsibility among Chinese cities guided by economic welfare gains: Case study based on multi-regional input-output analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 376(PA).
    7. Dong Jichang & He Jing & Li Xiuting & Mou Xindi & Dong Zhi, 2020. "The Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Carbon Dioxide Emissions: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, February.
    8. Huaide Wen & Jun Dai, 2021. "The Change of Sources of Growth and Sustainable Development in China: Based on the Extended EKC Explanation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-19, March.
    9. Magazzino, Cosimo & Drago, Carlo & Schneider, Nicolas, 2023. "Evidence of supply security and sustainability challenges in Nigeria’s power sector," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Yueyue Rong & Junsong Jia & Min Ju & Chundi Chen & Yangming Zhou & Yexi Zhong, 2021. "Multi-Perspective Analysis of Household Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Direct Energy Consumption by the Methods of Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index and ? Convergence in Central China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-28, August.
    11. Wang, Yuan & Zhang, Xiang & Kubota, Jumpei & Zhu, Xiaodong & Lu, Genfa, 2015. "A semi-parametric panel data analysis on the urbanization-carbon emissions nexus for OECD countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 704-709.
    12. Yuling Sun & Junsong Jia & Min Ju & Chundi Chen, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Direct Carbon Emission and Policy Implication of Energy Transition for China’s Residential Consumption Sector by the Methods of Social Network Analysis and Geographically We," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-26, July.
    13. Xu, Guangyue & Dong, Haoyun & Xu, Zhenci & Bhattarai, Nishan, 2022. "China can reach carbon neutrality before 2050 by improving economic development quality," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    14. Chimere O. Iheonu & Ogochukwu C. Anyanwu & Obinna K. Odo & Solomon Prince Nathaniel, 2021. "Does Economic Growth, International Trade and Urbanization uphold Environmental Sustainability in sub-Saharan Africa? Insights from Quantile and Causality Procedures," Working Papers 21/003, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    15. Shanshan Wang & Tianhao Zhao & Haitao Zheng & Jie Hu, 2017. "The STIRPAT Analysis on Carbon Emission in Chinese Cities: An Asymmetric Laplace Distribution Mixture Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-13, December.
    16. Yuncai Wang & Jiake Shen & Wentao Yan & Chundi Chen, 2019. "Effects of Landscape Development Intensity on River Water Quality in Urbanized Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-20, December.
    17. Chen, Zhongfei & Huang, Wanjing & Zheng, Xian, 2019. "The decline in energy intensity: Does financial development matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    18. Bo Yang & Minhaj Ali & Shujahat Haider Hashmi & Mohsin Shabir, 2020. "Income Inequality and CO 2 Emissions in Developing Countries: The Moderating Role of Financial Instability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-24, August.
    19. Muhammad Haseeb & Muhammad Azam, 2021. "Dynamic nexus among tourism, corruption, democracy and environmental degradation: a panel data investigation," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5557-5575, April.
    20. Liang, Xiaoying & Min Fan, & Xiao, Yuting & Yao, Jing, 2022. "Temporal-spatial characteristics of energy-based carbon dioxide emissions and driving factors during 2004–2019, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:22:p:5521-:d:1514199. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.