Research on the Mechanism and Prediction Model of Pressure Drive Recovery in Low-Permeability Oil Reservoirs

China boasts significant reserves of low-permeability oil reservoirs, and the economic and efficient development of these reservoirs plays a crucial role in enhancing oil and gas production. However, the “difficult injection and difficult recovery” issue in low-permeability oil reservoirs is a major challenge. To address this, research is conducted on the mechanism of pressure drive based on the mathematical model of oil-water seepage in low-permeability reservoirs and the model of fracture permeability. The study finds that pressure drive technology, by directly delivering the pressure drive agent deep into the low-permeability reservoir, effectively prevents viscosity loss and adhesion retention of the agent in the near-wellbore area. This technology expands the swept volume, improves oil washing efficiency, replenishes formation energy, and facilitates the gathering and production of scattered remaining oil. For reservoirs with higher permeability, pressure drive yields quick results, and high-pressure water injection can be directly adopted for pressure drive to reduce costs. On the other hand, reservoirs with lower permeability have difficulty in water absorption, and the use of surfactant-based pressure drive can effectively reduce the seepage resistance of the reservoir, enhancing its water absorption capacity and improving development outcomes. Based on the mechanism of pressure drive development, further research is conducted on the production characteristics of pressure drive mines. Addressing the variability in pressure drive effects, big data analysis tools such as SHAP analysis and correlation analysis are employed to evaluate the main controlling factors of pressure drive in both new and old areas. Additionally, non-time series and time series pressure drive production forecasting models are established based on pressure drive data.