Investigating Divergent Energy Policy Fundamentals: Warfare Assessment of Past Dependence on Russian Energy Raw Materials in Europe

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting warfare within direct proximity to the European Union (EU) have significantly changed the conditions of Europe’s energy policy. Consequently, the energy security agencies and governments have been deliberating over an energy trilemma: the problem of balancing affordability, security, and environmental considerations, with much greater ramifications than before the breakout of the current military conflict. The past structural similarities and differences of the EU member states’ dependence on Russian energy raw materials, and the factors that might have determined those differences, may be among the key drivers of future energy policy choices in Europe and the prospective paths of the European Green Deal (EGD). Historical convergence might encourage an EGD consensus, while divergent past patterns might not allow for such a single direction throughout the EU. The multifaceted research proposed in this paper, from descriptive statistics to multiple linear regression model analyses, identifies structural dissimilarities among the EU economies relating to their dependence on Russia. Key findings suggest that the past dependencies on Russian energy raw materials have not been similar across the EU countries, and have been associated with the economic size of the EU member states and their proximity to or remoteness from Russia. In this regard, economic size and distance from Russia may be significant determinants of certain dissimilarities. Some countries, especially Estonia, Lithuania, and Poland, have demonstrated a structurally different energy mix dependence on Russian fossil energy raw materials than countries more remote from Russia that boast a higher GDP per capita.