IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i3p1434-d1053690.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the Benefits of Using Metaheuristics in the Hyperparameter Tuning of Deep Learning Models for Energy Load Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Nebojsa Bacanin

    (Faculty of Informatics and Computing, Singidunum University, Danijelova 32, 11010 Belgrade, Serbia)

  • Catalin Stoean

    (Department of Computer Science, University of Craiova, A.I.Cuza, 13, 200585 Craiova, Romania)

  • Miodrag Zivkovic

    (Faculty of Informatics and Computing, Singidunum University, Danijelova 32, 11010 Belgrade, Serbia)

  • Miomir Rakic

    (Faculty of Informatics and Computing, Singidunum University, Danijelova 32, 11010 Belgrade, Serbia)

  • Roma Strulak-Wójcikiewicz

    (Faculty of Economics and Transport Engineering, Maritime University of Szczecin, Wały Chrobrego 1/2, 70-500 Szczecin, Poland)

  • Ruxandra Stoean

    (Department of Computer Science, University of Craiova, A.I.Cuza, 13, 200585 Craiova, Romania)

Abstract

An effective energy oversight represents a major concern throughout the world, and the problem has become even more stringent recently. The prediction of energy load and consumption depends on various factors such as temperature, plugged load, etc. The machine learning and deep learning (DL) approaches developed in the last decade provide a very high level of accuracy for various types of applications, including time-series forecasting. Accordingly, the number of prediction models for this task is continuously growing. The current study does not only overview the most recent and relevant DL for energy supply and demand, but it also emphasizes the fact that not many recent methods use parameter tuning for enhancing the results. To fill the abovementioned gap, in the research conducted for the purpose of this manuscript, a canonical and straightforward long short-term memory (LSTM) DL model for electricity load is developed and tuned for multivariate time-series forecasting. One open dataset from Europe is used as a benchmark, and the performance of LSTM models for a one-step-ahead prediction is evaluated. Reported results can be used as a benchmark for hybrid LSTM-optimization approaches for multivariate energy time-series forecasting in power systems. The current work highlights that parameter tuning leads to better results when using metaheuristics for this purpose in all cases: while grid search achieves a coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) of 0.9136, the metaheuristic that led to the worst result is still notably better with the corresponding score of 0.9515.

Suggested Citation

  • Nebojsa Bacanin & Catalin Stoean & Miodrag Zivkovic & Miomir Rakic & Roma Strulak-Wójcikiewicz & Ruxandra Stoean, 2023. "On the Benefits of Using Metaheuristics in the Hyperparameter Tuning of Deep Learning Models for Energy Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-21, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:3:p:1434-:d:1053690
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/3/1434/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/3/1434/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ismail Shah & Hasnain Iftikhar & Sajid Ali, 2020. "Modeling and Forecasting Medium-Term Electricity Consumption Using Component Estimation Technique," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-17, May.
    2. Liang, Yi & Niu, Dongxiao & Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2019. "Short term load forecasting based on feature extraction and improved general regression neural network model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 653-663.
    3. Salam, Abdulwahed & El Hibaoui, Abdelaaziz, 2021. "Energy consumption prediction model with deep inception residual network inspiration and LSTM," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 97-109.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aydin Zaboli & Swetha Rani Kasimalla & Kuchan Park & Younggi Hong & Junho Hong, 2024. "A Comprehensive Review of Behind-the-Meter Distributed Energy Resources Load Forecasting: Models, Challenges, and Emerging Technologies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Olympia Roeva & Gergana Roeva & Elena Chorukova, 2024. "Crow Search Algorithm for Modelling an Anaerobic Digestion Process: Algorithm Parameter Influence," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-20, July.
    3. Luis Alberto Holgado-Apaza & Nelly Jacqueline Ulloa-Gallardo & Ruth Nataly Aragon-Navarrete & Raidith Riva-Ruiz & Naomi Karina Odagawa-Aragon & Danger David Castellon-Apaza & Edgar E. Carpio-Vargas & , 2024. "The Exploration of Predictors for Peruvian Teachers’ Life Satisfaction through an Ensemble of Feature Selection Methods and Machine Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-28, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kong, Xiangyu & Li, Chuang & Wang, Chengshan & Zhang, Yusen & Zhang, Jian, 2020. "Short-term electrical load forecasting based on error correction using dynamic mode decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    2. Luo, X.J. & Oyedele, Lukumon O. & Ajayi, Anuoluwapo O. & Akinade, Olugbenga O. & Owolabi, Hakeem A. & Ahmed, Ashraf, 2020. "Feature extraction and genetic algorithm enhanced adaptive deep neural network for energy consumption prediction in buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Alessandro Bosisio & Matteo Moncecchi & Andrea Morotti & Marco Merlo, 2021. "Machine Learning and GIS Approach for Electrical Load Assessment to Increase Distribution Networks Resilience," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-23, July.
    4. Nazila Pourhaji & Mohammad Asadpour & Ali Ahmadian & Ali Elkamel, 2022. "The Investigation of Monthly/Seasonal Data Clustering Impact on Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Accuracy: Ontario Province Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-14, March.
    5. Hasnain Iftikhar & Josue E. Turpo-Chaparro & Paulo Canas Rodrigues & Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales, 2023. "Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices for the Italian Electricity Market Using a New Decomposition—Combination Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-23, September.
    6. Hu, Yusha & Li, Jigeng & Hong, Mengna & Ren, Jingzheng & Lin, Ruojue & Liu, Yue & Liu, Mengru & Man, Yi, 2019. "Short term electric load forecasting model and its verification for process industrial enterprises based on hybrid GA-PSO-BPNN algorithm—A case study of papermaking process," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1215-1227.
    7. Zhu, Yuli & Jiang, Bo & Zhu, Jiangong & Wang, Xueyuan & Wang, Rong & Wei, Xuezhe & Dai, Haifeng, 2023. "Adaptive state of health estimation for lithium-ion batteries using impedance-based timescale information and ensemble learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    8. Yi Liang & Yingying Fan & Yongfang Peng & Haigang An, 2022. "Smart Grid Project Benefit Evaluation Based on a Hybrid Intelligent Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-20, September.
    9. Malekizadeh, M. & Karami, H. & Karimi, M. & Moshari, A. & Sanjari, M.J., 2020. "Short-term load forecast using ensemble neuro-fuzzy model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    10. Wang, Kang & Wang, Jianzhou & Zeng, Bo & Lu, Haiyan, 2022. "An integrated power load point-interval forecasting system based on information entropy and multi-objective optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    11. Hasnain Iftikhar & Nadeela Bibi & Paulo Canas Rodrigues & Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales, 2023. "Multiple Novel Decomposition Techniques for Time Series Forecasting: Application to Monthly Forecasting of Electricity Consumption in Pakistan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-17, March.
    12. Meihang Zhang & Hua Zhang & Wei Yan & Zhigang Jiang & Shuo Zhu, 2023. "An Integrated Deep-Learning-Based Approach for Energy Consumption Prediction of Machining Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-17, March.
    13. Sungwoo Park & Jihoon Moon & Seungwon Jung & Seungmin Rho & Sung Wook Baik & Eenjun Hwang, 2020. "A Two-Stage Industrial Load Forecasting Scheme for Day-Ahead Combined Cooling, Heating and Power Scheduling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-23, January.
    14. Jianliang He & Yuxin Sun & Chen Yin & Yan He & Yulin Wang, 2023. "Cross-domain adaptation network based on attention mechanism for tool wear prediction," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 34(8), pages 3365-3387, December.
    15. Andreea Valeria Vesa & Tudor Cioara & Ionut Anghel & Marcel Antal & Claudia Pop & Bogdan Iancu & Ioan Salomie & Vasile Teodor Dadarlat, 2020. "Energy Flexibility Prediction for Data Center Engagement in Demand Response Programs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-23, February.
    16. Chatum Sankalpa & Somsak Kittipiyakul & Seksan Laitrakun, 2022. "Forecasting Short-Term Electricity Load Using Validated Ensemble Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-30, November.
    17. Somu, Nivethitha & M R, Gauthama Raman & Ramamritham, Krithi, 2020. "A hybrid model for building energy consumption forecasting using long short term memory networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    18. Guo‐Feng Fan & Yan‐Hui Guo & Jia‐Mei Zheng & Wei‐Chiang Hong, 2020. "A generalized regression model based on hybrid empirical mode decomposition and support vector regression with back‐propagation neural network for mid‐short‐term load forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 737-756, August.
    19. Zang, Haixiang & Xu, Ruiqi & Cheng, Lilin & Ding, Tao & Liu, Ling & Wei, Zhinong & Sun, Guoqiang, 2021. "Residential load forecasting based on LSTM fusing self-attention mechanism with pooling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    20. Shahzad Aslam & Nasir Ayub & Umer Farooq & Muhammad Junaid Alvi & Fahad R. Albogamy & Gul Rukh & Syed Irtaza Haider & Ahmad Taher Azar & Rasool Bukhsh, 2021. "Towards Electric Price and Load Forecasting Using CNN-Based Ensembler in Smart Grid," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-28, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:3:p:1434-:d:1053690. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.