An Agent-Based Decision Support Framework for a Prospective Analysis of Transport and Heat Electrification in Urban Areas

One of the main pathways that cities are taking to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is the decarbonisation of the electricity supply in conjunction with the electrification of transport and heat services. Estimating these future electricity demands, greatly influenced by end-users’ behaviour, is key for planning energy systems. In this context, support tools can help decision-makers assess different scenarios and interventions during the design of new planning guidelines, policies, and operational procedures. This paper presents a novel bottom-up decision support framework using an agent-based modelling and simulation approach to evaluate, in an integrated way, transport and heat electrification scenarios in urban areas. In this work, an open-source tool named SmartCityModel is introduced, where agents represent energy users with diverse sociodemographic and technical attributes. Based on agents’ behavioural rules and daily activities, vehicle trips and building occupancy patterns are generated together with electric vehicle charging and building heating demands. A representative case study set in London, UK, is shown in detail, and a summary of more than ten other case studies is presented to highlight the flexibility of the framework to generate high-resolution spatiotemporal energy demand profiles in urban areas, supporting decision-makers in planning low-carbon and sustainable cities.