Analytical and Numerical Estimation of Fracture Initiation and Propagation Regions around Large-Diameter, Deep Boreholes for Disposal of Long-Lived Intermediate-Level Waste

The safety of high-level radioactive waste disposal has been studied across the world considering mined geologic repositories. Here, we introduce large-diameter, deep borehole disposal as one of the potential solutions for small volumes of long-lived intermediate-level waste (ILW). The short- and long-term stability of deep disposal boreholes is critical for environmental safety and public health. In this paper, we first use a recently revisited extensional strain criterion for fracture initiation and apply analytical solutions of a two-dimensional stress model to predict the fracturing region around a 2 km deep and 0.7 m diameter disposal borehole. Analytical solutions of fracture initiation are compared with results from the numerical simulator FRACOD, while the latter model also predicts dynamic effects such as fracture propagation. Both analytical and numerical methods predicted similar fracture initiation characteristics around the minor horizontal compressive stress springline, consistent with literature data. Numerical results showed deeper fracturing zones than those predicted by analytical solutions, mainly because the analytical predictions provide static snapshots under specific given conditions, while the numerical model calculates additional dynamic effects of fracture propagation. Including stress dynamics is shown to further weaken the rock around the borehole. At the bottom plane of the borehole, three-dimensional numerical simulations showed the development of fracturing zones around the major horizontal compressive stress springline. Borehole stability analyses are essential to plan the safe operation of drilling operations while also giving insights as to what borehole depths are more prone to fracturing and hence potentially less suitable as a waste disposal zone.