Effects of Future Climate Change and Adaptation Measures on Summer Comfort of Modern Homes across the Regions of the UK

The global climate is warming rapidly, with increasing frequency of severe events including heatwaves. Building insulation standards are improving to reduce emissions, but this can also lead to more overheating. Historically, UK house designers have not included adaptation measures to limit this. Most studies of the problem have had limited geographical or future climate scope. This study considers the comfort performance of a small modern house, in detached, semi-detached, and terrace (row) forms, but otherwise identical. Overheating is evaluated according to established criteria, including night-time bedroom hours over 26 °C. Simulations are carried out using median future weather years for current, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s climates under medium- and high-emission scenarios for 14 regions of the UK. The results show a very large increase in overheating by the 2080s in all regions. With solar shading and natural ventilation, overheating is reduced considerably, maintaining comfort in most northern regions in the 2050s and a few northern regions in the 2080s. Differences between medium and high emissions are generally less than between different decades. Terraced (row) houses consistently overheat slightly more than semi-detached, with detached showing the least overheating.