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Net Zero: The Remaining Global Market Volume for Internal Combustion Engines in Light-Duty Vehicles under a 1.5 °C Carbon Budget Trajectory

Author

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  • Sven Teske

    (Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney (UTS), 235 Jones Street, Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia)

  • Stefan Bratzel

    (Center of Automotive Management, An der Gohrsmühle 25, 51465 Bergisch Gladbach, Germany)

  • Ralf Tellermann

    (Center of Automotive Management, An der Gohrsmühle 25, 51465 Bergisch Gladbach, Germany)

  • Benjamin Stephan

    (Greenpeace Germany, Hongkong Strasse 10, 20457 Hamburg, Germany)

  • Mauricio Vargas

    (Greenpeace Germany, Hongkong Strasse 10, 20457 Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract

To achieve the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, decarbonization targets for the global automotive industry are required. We assess the quantity of light-duty vehicles (LDVs) with internal combustion engines (ICEs) that can be manufactured within the identified carbon budget and compare it with the current sales plans of the four largest automobile manufacturers—Volkswagen, General Motors, Toyota, and Hyundai/Kia—as representative of traditional car manufacturers. We first describe the quantification of a carbon budget for LDVs under the 1.5 °C target and a methodology for calculating the market shares that will allow different drive-train technologies to stay within it. The global LDV market for new sales and historic and future vehicle retirement rates are presented, together with assumptions for car usage (in passenger kilometres per year) and fuel efficiencies. We calculate the quantity of ICE LDVs that can be sold before the manufacture of ICEs must cease globally. We then compare this upper global limit with the current sales plans of car companies. The plans of the four manufacturers differ, but all considerably exceed the number of ICE vehicle sales required to meet the 1.5 °C target. This analysis does not forecast the development of the global LDV market, but assesses the gap between manufacturers’ intention and the requirement under a 1.5 °C pathway.

Suggested Citation

  • Sven Teske & Stefan Bratzel & Ralf Tellermann & Benjamin Stephan & Mauricio Vargas, 2022. "Net Zero: The Remaining Global Market Volume for Internal Combustion Engines in Light-Duty Vehicles under a 1.5 °C Carbon Budget Trajectory," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-27, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:21:p:8037-:d:956786
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Raymond Vernon, 1966. "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(2), pages 190-207.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hyeonchang Jeon & Daeil Hyun & Hyuntae Lee & Seongjin Son & Jaeyoung Han, 2024. "Optimization of Blades and Impellers for Electric Vehicle Centrifugal Pumps via Numerical Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-16, February.
    2. Rafael Estevez & Laura Aguado-Deblas & Francisco J. López-Tenllado & Felipa M. Bautista & Antonio A. Romero & Diego Luna, 2024. "Internal Combustion Engines and Carbon-Neutral Fuels: A Perspective on Emission Neutrality in the European Union," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-13, March.
    3. Grzegorz Koszalka & Paweł Krzaczek, 2022. "Energy Losses Related to Ring Pack Wear in Gasoline Car Engine," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-16, December.

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