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Reliability Evaluation of Standalone Microgrid Based on Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation Method

Author

Listed:
  • Zhipeng Weng

    (Inverter Technology Engineering Research Center of Beijing, North China University of Technology, Beijing 100144, China)

  • Jinghua Zhou

    (Inverter Technology Engineering Research Center of Beijing, North China University of Technology, Beijing 100144, China)

  • Zhengdong Zhan

    (Inverter Technology Engineering Research Center of Beijing, North China University of Technology, Beijing 100144, China)

Abstract

In order to analyze the influence of uncertainty and an operation strategy on the reliability of a standalone microgrid, a reliability evaluation method based on a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) simulation was developed. Here, the duty cycles of a microturbine (MT), the stochastic performance of photovoltaics (PV), and wind turbine generators (WTG) were considered. Moreover, the time-varying load with random fluctuation was modeled. In this method, the available capacity of an energy storage system (ESS) was also comprehensively considered by the SMC simulation. Then, the reliability evaluation framework was established from the perspectives of probability, frequency, and duration, and reliability evaluation algorithms under different operation strategies were formulated. Lastly, the influence of WTG and PV penetration and equipment capacity on the reliability was evaluated in the test system. The results showed that the complementary characteristics of wind and solar and the enhancement of the equipment capacity can both improve the reliability; but, with the increase in the penetration rate of WTG and PV, more ESS capacity is needed to cope with the randomness of WTG and PV. In addition, load shedding minimization strategies can minimize the probability and the number of reductions and achieve optimal reliability, which can provide a reference for the formulation of microgrid operation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhipeng Weng & Jinghua Zhou & Zhengdong Zhan, 2022. "Reliability Evaluation of Standalone Microgrid Based on Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-20, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:18:p:6706-:d:914160
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    Cited by:

    1. Longlong Liu & Xiaochuan Ai & Jun Wu, 2024. "Reliability and Residual Life of Cold Standby Systems," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-22, May.

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