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Availability Projections of Hydroelectric Power Plants through Monte Carlo Simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Marcos Tadeu Barros de Oliveira

    (Electrical Engineering Department, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora 36036-900, Brazil
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Patrícia de Sousa Oliveira Silva

    (Electrical Engineering Department, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora 36036-900, Brazil
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Elisa Oliveira

    (Electrical Engineering Department, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora 36036-900, Brazil
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • André Luís Marques Marcato

    (Electrical Engineering Department, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora 36036-900, Brazil
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Giovani Santiago Junqueira

    (Santo Antônio Energia, Porto Velho 78900-000, Brazil
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

The present work proposes a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to obtain availability projections for Hydroelectric Power Plants (HPP), based mainly on regulatory aspects involving the Availability Factor (AFA). The main purpose of the simulation is to generate scenarios to obtain statistics for risk analysis and decision-making in relation to the HPP. The proposed methodology consists of two steps, firstly, the optimization of the maintenance schedule of the hydroelectric plant is carried out, in order to allocate the mandatory maintenance in the simulation horizon. Then, for the MCS, scenarios of forced shutdowns of the Generating Units (GU) will be generated, which directly influence the operation and, consequently, the availability of the HPP. The scenarios will be inserted into an operation optimization model, which considers the impact of forced shutdown samples on the MCS. The proposed modeling was applied using real data from the Santo Antônio HPP, which is one of the largest hydroelectric plants in Brazil.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos Tadeu Barros de Oliveira & Patrícia de Sousa Oliveira Silva & Elisa Oliveira & André Luís Marques Marcato & Giovani Santiago Junqueira, 2021. "Availability Projections of Hydroelectric Power Plants through Monte Carlo Simulation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-18, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:24:p:8398-:d:701240
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Souza, Reinaldo Castro & Marcato, André Luı´s Marques & Dias, Bruno Henriques & Oliveira, Fernando Luiz Cyrino, 2012. "Optimal operation of hydrothermal systems with Hydrological Scenario Generation through Bootstrap and Periodic Autoregressive Models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 606-615.
    2. Emanuele Ogliari & Alfredo Nespoli & Marco Mussetta & Silvia Pretto & Andrea Zimbardo & Nicholas Bonfanti & Manuele Aufiero, 2020. "A Hybrid Method for the Run-Of-The-River Hydroelectric Power Plant Energy Forecast: HYPE Hydrological Model and Neural Network," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-19, October.
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