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Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Similar Day-Based Neural Network

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  • Chun-Yao Lee

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, No. 200, Zhongbei Road, Zhongli District, Taoyuan City 320, Taiwan)

  • Chang-En Wu

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Chung Yuan Christian University, No. 200, Zhongbei Road, Zhongli District, Taoyuan City 320, Taiwan)

Abstract

This paper presents four refined distance models to the application of forecasting short-term electricity price namely Euclidean norm, Manhattan distance, cosine coefficient, and Pearson correlation coefficient. The four refined models were constructed and used to select the days, which are like a reference day in electricity prices and loads, called similar days in this study. Using the similar days, the electricity prices of a forecast day were further obtained by similar day regression (SDR) and similar day based artificial neural network (SDANN). The simulation results of the case of the PJM (Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland) interchange energy market indicate the superiority and availability of the selection 45 framework days and three similar days based on Pearson correlation coefficient model.

Suggested Citation

  • Chun-Yao Lee & Chang-En Wu, 2020. "Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Similar Day-Based Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-15, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:17:p:4408-:d:404505
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Štefan Bojnec & Alan Križaj, 2021. "Electricity Markets during the Liberalization: The Case of a European Union Country," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-21, July.
    3. Tingting Hou & Rengcun Fang & Jinrui Tang & Ganheng Ge & Dongjun Yang & Jianchao Liu & Wei Zhang, 2021. "A Novel Short-Term Residential Electric Load Forecasting Method Based on Adaptive Load Aggregation and Deep Learning Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-21, November.
    4. Alireza Pourdaryaei & Mohammad Mohammadi & Mazaher Karimi & Hazlie Mokhlis & Hazlee A. Illias & Seyed Hamidreza Aghay Kaboli & Shameem Ahmad, 2021. "Recent Development in Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Computational Intelligence Techniques in Deregulated Power Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-28, September.
    5. Fernández, Joaquín Delgado & Menci, Sergio Potenciano & Lee, Chul Min & Rieger, Alexander & Fridgen, Gilbert, 2022. "Privacy-preserving federated learning for residential short-term load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).

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