IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v12y2024i9p227-d1464539.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Econometric Analysis of South Africa’s Fiscal and Monetary Policy Effects on Economic Growth from 1980 to 2022

Author

Listed:
  • Luyanda Majenge

    (School of Accounting, Economics & Finance, College of Law & Management Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 3629, South Africa)

  • Sakhile Mpungose

    (School of Accounting, Economics & Finance, College of Law & Management Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 3629, South Africa)

  • Simiso Msomi

    (School of Accounting, Economics & Finance, College of Law & Management Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 3629, South Africa)

Abstract

This study examined South Africa’s economic growth rate from 1980 to 2022 through an econometric analysis of fiscal and monetary policies. The study sought to investigate the relationships between the economy’s growth rate and various fiscal and monetary policy variables, taking into account different economic approaches such as Keynesian, monetarist, and Wagner’s perspectives. The methodology used consisted of data preparation, multiple unit root tests, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration analysis, diagnostic tests, and pairwise Granger causality analysis. The empirical analysis found a long-term cointegration among the economic growth rate, government debt, expenditure, and revenue in fiscal policy, though government debt and expenditure were not statistically significant. Contrary to economic theory, increased government revenue had a negative correlation with economic growth. There was no long-term relationship found between the economic growth rate and monetary policy variables such as the official exchange rate, inflation rate, real interest rates, and M3 money supply. Pairwise Granger causality tests revealed a one-way relationship between government spending and economic growth, providing support to the Keynesian approach to fiscal policy. This study also discovered evidence that economic growth Granger-causes inflation, implying that economic growth may have predictive power for inflation, consistent with the demand-pull inflation hypothesis. However, no direct predictive relationships were found between the selected monetary policy variables and economic growth, supporting the long-run theory of monetary neutrality. This study suggests evaluating spending, managing inflation, implementing reforms, closing infrastructure gaps, encouraging investment, and ensuring fiscal sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Luyanda Majenge & Sakhile Mpungose & Simiso Msomi, 2024. "Econometric Analysis of South Africa’s Fiscal and Monetary Policy Effects on Economic Growth from 1980 to 2022," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-24, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:12:y:2024:i:9:p:227-:d:1464539
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/12/9/227/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/12/9/227/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thabane, Kanono & Lebina, Sello, 2016. "Economic Growth and Government Spending Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Lesotho," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 4(1), January.
    2. Nikolay Nenovsky, 2011. "Criticisms of Classical Political Economy. Menger, Austrian economics and the German Historical School," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 290-293.
    3. Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2011. "Demand for Money in Hungary: An ARDL Approach," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 01-16, November.
    4. Oliver E. Williamson, 2000. "The New Institutional Economics: Taking Stock, Looking Ahead," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(3), pages 595-613, September.
    5. Rick Tilman, 2008. "Institutional Economics as Social Criticism and Political Philosophy," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 289-302, June.
    6. Khoza, Keorapetse & Thebe, Relebogile & Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Nonlinear impact of inflation on economic growth in South Africa: A smooth transition regression (STR) analysis," MPRA Paper 73840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Stan Du Plessis & Ben Smit & Federico Sturzenegger, 2007. "The Cyclicality Of Monetary And Fiscal Policy In South Africa Since 1994," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(3), pages 391-411, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Citera, Emanuele & Sau, Lino, 2019. "Complexity, Conventions and Instability: the role of monetary policy," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201924, University of Turin.
    2. Emmanuel Yeboah-Assiamah & Kobus Muller & Kwame Ameyaw Domfeh, 2018. "‘Complex crisis’ and the rise of collaborative natural resource governance: institutional trajectory of a wildlife governance experience in Ghana," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 2205-2224, October.
    3. Eicher, Theo S. & Schreiber, Till, 2010. "Structural policies and growth: Time series evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 169-179, January.
    4. Engelhardt, Sebastian v. & Freytag, Andreas, 2013. "Institutions, culture, and open source," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 90-110.
    5. Stephanie Rosenkranz & Patrick W. Schmitz, 2007. "Can Coasean Bargaining Justify Pigouvian Taxation?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 74(296), pages 573-585, November.
    6. Muhammad Zia Ullah Khan & Muhammad Illyas & Muqqadas Rahman & Chaudhary Abdul Rahman, 2015. "Money Monetization and Economic Growth in Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(4), pages 184-192, April.
    7. Elisa D?Adamo, 2018. "La Cost-Benefit Analysis delle grandi infrastrutture: un riesame del Large Hadron Collider (LHC) del CERN," PRISMA Economia - Societ? - Lavoro, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2018(1-2), pages 97-108.
    8. Birendra Bahadur Budha, 2013. "Demand for Money in Nepal: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 25(1), pages 21-36, April.
    9. Peter G. Klein & Michael E. Sykuta, 2010. "Editors’ Introduction," Chapters, in: Peter G. Klein & Michael E. Sykuta (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Transaction Cost Economics, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Osei-Tutu, Francis & Weill, Laurent, 2023. "Individualism reduces borrower discouragement," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 370-385.
    11. Nastasi, Federico & Spagano, Salvatore, 2023. "Institutionalist Clues in Celso Furtado’s Economic Thought," MPRA Paper 120242, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Evans, Lewis & Meade, Richard, 2005. "The Role and Significance of Cooperatives in New Zealand Agriculture, A Comparative Institutional Analysis," Working Paper Series 3847, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    13. Schmitz, Patrick W., 2021. "On the optimality of outsourcing when vertical integration can mitigate information asymmetries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    14. Roberto Foa & Anna Nemirovskaya & Elena Mostovova, 2013. "Internal Empires I: Social Institutions of the Frontier," HSE Working papers WP BRP 09/SOC/2013, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    15. Aseem Kaul & Jiao Luo, 2018. "An economic case for CSR: The comparative efficiency of for‐profit firms in meeting consumer demand for social goods," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 1650-1677, June.
    16. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain, 2022. "External constraint and procyclicality of monetary policy of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC)," MPRA Paper 116375, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Utku ALTUNÖZ, 2018. "Investigating the Presence of Fisher Effect for the China Economy," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(35).
    18. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2016. "Long-Term Persistence," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(6), pages 1401-1436, December.
    19. Theo S. Eicher & Andreas Leukert, 2009. "Institutions and Economic Performance: Endogeneity and Parameter Heterogeneity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 197-219, February.
    20. Kim, Jongwook & Mahoney, Joseph T., 2008. "A Strategic Theory of the Firm as a Nexus of Incomplete Contracts: A Property Rights Approach," Working Papers 08-0108, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Business.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:12:y:2024:i:9:p:227-:d:1464539. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.