IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v10y2022i7p159-d854071.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Economic Growth and Monetary Policy: An Analysis from the DSGE Model in Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Trung Duc Nguyen

    (Faculty of Banking, No. 36 Ton That Dam Street, Nguyen Thai Binh Ward, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City 700000, Vietnam)

  • Anh Hoang Le

    (Institute for Research Science and Banking Technology, Banking University HCMC, No. 36 Ton That Dam Street, Nguyen Thai Binh Ward, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City 700000, Vietnam)

  • Eleftherios I. Thalassinos

    (Faculty of Maritime and Industrial Studies, University of Piraeus, 185-33 Piraeus, Greece
    Faculty of Economics, Management and Accountancy, University of Malta, 2080 Msida, Malta)

  • Lanh Kim Trieu

    (Faculty of Finance, Banking University HCMC, No. 36 Ton That Dam Street, Nguyen Thai Binh Ward, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City 700000, Vietnam)

Abstract

Facing the current complicated situation of the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to medical efforts on disease prevention and treatment, governments of countries also have to come up with solutions to deal with the negative impacts of the pandemic on the economy. This study aims to provide specific, comprehensive, and scientific estimates of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Vietnamese economy. By using the Bayesian method to estimate DSGE models, research results show that a shock increase by one standard deviation (about 1.49% increase in the probability of a COVID-19 outbreak) to the Covid status variable immediately reduces the output gap by 0.94%. However, this effect only lasts for one quarter, and the output gap widens again. Meanwhile, refinancing interest rates, inflation, and exchange rate changes also have an immediate decline in response to this shock, but the magnitude of the reduction is relatively small.

Suggested Citation

  • Trung Duc Nguyen & Anh Hoang Le & Eleftherios I. Thalassinos & Lanh Kim Trieu, 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Economic Growth and Monetary Policy: An Analysis from the DSGE Model in Vietnam," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-19, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:10:y:2022:i:7:p:159-:d:854071
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/10/7/159/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/10/7/159/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Murillo Campello & Gaurav Kankanhalli & Pradeep Muthukrishnan, 2020. "Corporate Hiring under COVID-19: Labor Market Concentration, Downskilling, and Income Inequality," NBER Working Papers 27208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2025. "The cost of the COVID-19 crisis: Lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    3. Pinshi, Christian P., 2020. "Monetary policy, uncertainty and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 100836, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 May 2020.
    4. Christian Pinshi, 2020. "COVID-19 uncertainty and monetary policy," Working Papers hal-02566796, HAL.
    5. Alain MALATA & Christian PINSHI, 2020. "Fading The Effects Of Coronavirus With Monetary Policy," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 105-110.
    6. Xinping Zhang & Yimeng Zhang & Yunchan Zhu, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic, Sustainability of Macroeconomy, and Choice of Monetary Policy Targets: A NK-DSGE Analysis Based on China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-20, March.
    7. PINSHI, Christian P., 2020. "Uncertainty, monetary policy and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 100147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Waldemar Szymanski & Monika Szczerbak & Malgorzata Ozieblo, 2023. "Crisis Averted: Navigating Fiscal Policy Instruments in Member States on the Example of the Covid-19 Pandemic," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 556-569.
    2. Grazyna Golik-Gorecka, 2024. "Marketing and Financial Strategies of Polish Companies During and After a Pandemic: Insights from Best Practice Concepts," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 216-233.
    3. Anna Kacprzak & Aneta Chrzaszcz, 2023. "Communication in Multigenerational Project Teams During the Covid-19 Pandemic: The Perspective of Team Members," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 3-22.
    4. Tomasz Norek, 2023. "Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on the Innovativeness of SME Enterprises in Poland: A Regional Perspective," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 573-584.
    5. Katarzyna Boratynska, 2024. "The Economic and Financial Standing Assessment of Energy Sector Companies During the COVID-19 Pandemic," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 1248-1265.
    6. Ali Keshavarzi & Shokooh Mahmoodi & Hamid Reza Horry, 2024. "Investigating the economic and environmental effects of a pandemic and its policy responses: a Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(11), pages 29269-29292, November.
    7. Bozena Plonka-Syroka & Marek Stych & Beata Pawlica & Malgorzata Kmak & Mariusz Migala, 2023. "The Functioning of the Polish Health Care System During the First Wave of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in the Opinion of Primary Health Care Patients," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 606-616.
    8. Blanka Mitera & Karolina Harasimowicz, 2024. "Balancing Act: The Dual Impacts of AI and Healthcare Algorithms on Patient Welfare in Telemedicine," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 243-254.
    9. Pejman Peykani & Mostafa Sargolzaei & Amir Takaloo & Shahla Valizadeh, 2023. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Macroeconomic Variables through Credit and Balance Sheet Channels: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christian Pinshi, 2020. "Arithmétique du Pass-through de la COVID-19 sur le Système financier Congolais," Working Papers hal-02897385, HAL.
    2. Sadananda Prusty & Anubha & Saurabh Gupta, 2021. "On the Road to Recovery: The Role of Post-Lockdown Stimulus Package," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 11(2), pages 206-224, June.
    3. Demiessie, Habtamu, 2020. "COVID-19 Pandemic Uncertainty Shock Impact on Macroeconomic Stability in Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 102625, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Aug 2020.
    4. PINSHI, Christian P., 2022. "A Note on the Natural Rate of Dollarization: Mathematical Approximation of Limits," MPRA Paper 111671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. PINSHI, Christian P., 2023. "Claims, Deposits and Financial Conditions in DR Congo: Impact of COVID-19 on the Financial System," MPRA Paper 117381, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ben salem, salha & slama, ines, 2021. "Modeling the impact of Coronavirus uncertainty on bank system vulnerability and monetary policy conduct," MPRA Paper 107391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Deimantė Teresienė & Greta Keliuotytė-Staniulėnienė & Rasa Kanapickienė, 2021. "Sustainable Economic Growth Support through Credit Transmission Channel and Financial Stability: In the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-34, March.
    8. Linh Tu Ho & Christopher Gan, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and World Pandemic Uncertainty Index: Do Health Pandemics Matter?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-15, March.
    9. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    10. MALATA, Alain K. & PINSHI, Christian P., 2020. "Système financier et COVID-19 : Un examen de l’impact en RDC [Financial system and COVID-19: A review of the impact in the DRC]," MPRA Paper 107772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Christian Pinshi, 2020. "Snapshot de l'incidence de l'épidémie de coronavirus en Afrique," Working Papers hal-02916833, HAL.
    12. Sinem Koçak & Özge Barış-Tüzemen, 2022. "Impact of the COVID-19 on foreign direct investment inflows in emerging economies: evidence from panel quantile regression," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, December.
    13. Sumedha Gupta & Laura Montenovo & Thuy Nguyen & Felipe Lozano‐Rojas & Ian Schmutte & Kosali Simon & Bruce A. Weinberg & Coady Wing, 2023. "Effects of social distancing policy on labor market outcomes," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(1), pages 166-193, January.
    14. Müller, Fernanda Maria & Santos, Samuel Solgon & Righi, Marcelo Brutti, 2023. "A description of the COVID-19 outbreak role in financial risk forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    15. Huan Huu Nguyen & Thanh Phuc Nguyen & Anh Nguyen Tram Tran, 2022. "Impacts of monetary policy transmission on bank performance and risk in the Vietnamese market: Does the Covid-19 pandemic matter?," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 2094591-209, December.
    16. Simionescu, Mihaela & Raišienė, Agota Giedrė, 2021. "A bridge between sentiment indicators: What does Google Trends tell us about COVID-19 pandemic and employment expectations in the EU new member states?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    17. Wright, Austin L. & Sonin, Konstantin & Driscoll, Jesse & Wilson, Jarnickae, 2020. "Poverty and economic dislocation reduce compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place protocols," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 544-554.
    18. Miescu, Mirela & Rossi, Raffaele, 2021. "COVID-19-induced shocks and uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    19. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Woo-Young Kang & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic, policy responses and stock markets in the G20," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 172, pages 77-90.
    20. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Nicholas W. Papageorge & Matthew V. Zahn & Michèle Belot & Eline Broek-Altenburg & Syngjoo Choi & Julian C. Jamison & Egon Tripodi, 2021. "Socio-demographic factors associated with self-protecting behavior during the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 691-738, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:10:y:2022:i:7:p:159-:d:854071. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.