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Nested Stochastic Valuation of Large Variable Annuity Portfolios: Monte Carlo Simulation and Synthetic Datasets

Author

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  • Guojun Gan

    (Department of Mathematics, University of Connecticut, 341 Mansfield Road, Storrs, CT 06269-1009, USA)

  • Emiliano A. Valdez

    (Department of Mathematics, University of Connecticut, 341 Mansfield Road, Storrs, CT 06269-1009, USA)

Abstract

Dynamic hedging has been adopted by many insurance companies to mitigate the financial risks associated with variable annuity guarantees. To simulate the performance of dynamic hedging for variable annuity products, insurance companies rely on nested stochastic projections, which is highly computationally intensive and often prohibitive for large variable annuity portfolios. Metamodeling techniques have recently been proposed to address the computational issues. However, it is difficult for researchers to obtain real datasets from insurance companies to test metamodeling techniques and publish the results in academic journals. In this paper, we create synthetic datasets that can be used for the purpose of addressing the computational issues associated with the nested stochastic valuation of large variable annuity portfolios. The runtime used to create these synthetic datasets would be about three years if a single CPU were used. These datasets are readily available to researchers and practitioners so that they can focus on testing metamodeling techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Guojun Gan & Emiliano A. Valdez, 2018. "Nested Stochastic Valuation of Large Variable Annuity Portfolios: Monte Carlo Simulation and Synthetic Datasets," Data, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-21, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jdataj:v:3:y:2018:i:3:p:31-:d:167253
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xu, Wei & Chen, Yuehuan & Coleman, Conrad & Coleman, Thomas F., 2018. "Moment matching machine learning methods for risk management of large variable annuity portfolios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-20.
    2. Seyed Amir Hejazi & Kenneth R. Jackson, 2016. "A Neural Network Approach to Efficient Valuation of Large Portfolios of Variable Annuities," Papers 1606.07831, arXiv.org.
    3. Gan, Guojun & Lin, X. Sheldon, 2015. "Valuation of large variable annuity portfolios under nested simulation: A functional data approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 138-150.
    4. Seyed Amir Hejazi & Kenneth R. Jackson & Guojun Gan, 2017. "A Spatial Interpolation Framework for Efficient Valuation of Large Portfolios of Variable Annuities," Papers 1701.04134, arXiv.org.
    5. Mary Hardy, 2001. "A Regime-Switching Model of Long-Term Stock Returns," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 41-53.
    6. Gan, Guojun, 2013. "Application of data clustering and machine learning in variable annuity valuation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 795-801.
    7. Hejazi, Seyed Amir & Jackson, Kenneth R., 2016. "A neural network approach to efficient valuation of large portfolios of variable annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 169-181.
    8. Guojun Gan & X. Sheldon Lin, 2017. "Efficient Greek Calculation of Variable Annuity Portfolios for Dynamic Hedging: A Two-Level Metamodeling Approach," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 161-177, April.
    9. Boyle, Phelim P. & Hardy, Mary R., 1997. "Reserving for maturity guarantees: Two approaches," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 113-127, November.
    10. Guojun Gan & Emiliano A. Valdez, 2018. "Regression Modeling for the Valuation of Large Variable Annuity Portfolios," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 40-54, January.
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