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Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation in Agricultural Systems

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Schmitt Olabisi

    (Department of Community Sustainability, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA)

  • Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke

    (Department of Agriculture (Agricultural Economics and Extension Programme), Alex Ekwueme Federal University Ndufu-Alike, Ebonyi State, Ikwo 482131, Nigeria)

  • Onyinye Prince Choko

    (Department of Forestry and Wildlife Management, University of Port Harcourt, Port Harcourt 500272, Nigeria)

  • Stella Nwawulu Chiemela

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka 410001, Nigeria)

  • Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie

    (Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA)

  • Anthonia Ifeyinwa Achike

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka 410001, Nigeria)

  • Adedapo Ayo Aiyeloja

    (Department of Forestry and Wildlife Management, University of Port Harcourt, Port Harcourt 500272, Nigeria)

Abstract

Effective climate adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture will require coordination across multiple scales of governance. Decision-makers from local to national scales will be tasked with planning under conditions of high uncertainty, often with minimal data. Participatory scenario planning is a method for devising adaptation strategies under high uncertainty, and we hypothesized that it could also be used for identifying systemic, inclusive, and transformative adaptation options at the community scale, and for highlighting opportunities for cross-scalar collaboration. We conducted scenario exercises with two communities in southeastern Nigeria that have experienced increasing flooding and other challenges linked to climate variability. Both communities identified drivers of change that intersect with climate, as well as community-scale actions that would improve adaptation to a range of future scenarios. We found evidence that scenario exercises can stimulate communities to develop transformative approaches to climate adaptation that seek to reduce climate risk by creating new systems and processes. We also found that community-identified priorities for strategic action highlight how larger-scale interventions could coordinate with communities to adapt more effectively. Participatory scenario planning is therefore a potentially important tool for adaptation planning in regions in which future conditions are highly uncertain.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Schmitt Olabisi & Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke & Onyinye Prince Choko & Stella Nwawulu Chiemela & Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie & Anthonia Ifeyinwa Achike & Adedapo Ayo Aiyeloja, 2020. "Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation in Agricultural Systems," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-9, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:10:y:2020:i:7:p:274-:d:381483
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Onyinye Prince Choko & Laura Schmitt Olabisi & Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke & Stella Nwawulu Chiemela & Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie & Louie Rivers, 2019. "A Resilience Approach to Community-Scale Climate Adaptation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, June.
    2. Laura Schmitt Olabisi & Saweda Liverpool-Tasie & Louie Rivers & Arika Ligmann-Zielinska & Jing Du & Riva Denny & Sandra Marquart-Pyatt & Amadou Sidibé, 2018. "Using participatory modeling processes to identify sources of climate risk in West Africa," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 23-32, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vizinho, André & Avelar, David & Fonseca, Ana Lúcia & Carvalho, Silvia & Sucena-Paiva, Leonor & Pinho, Pedro & Nunes, Alice & Branquinho, Cristina & Vasconcelos, Ana Cátia & Santos, Filipe Duarte & Ro, 2021. "Framing the application of Adaptation Pathways for agroforestry in Mediterranean drylands," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).

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