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Проверка Наличия Эффекта Гистерезиса В Динамике Безработицы В России

Author

Listed:
  • Andrey V. Zubarev

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Valeriia A. Tadei

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

Abstract

Российский рынок труда имеет свою специфику, одной из отличительных черт которой является постепенное снижение безработицы с 2000 г. по настоящее время. Ожидалось, что пандемия коронавируса и экономические санкции 2022 г. должны были спровоцировать значительный рост безработицы в России, однако, несмотря на это, показатели 2023 г. оказываются рекордно низкими: в январе 2023 г. доля безработных официально составила 3,6%. Если отсутствие предрекавшегося сокращения занятости вследствие санкций можно объяснить тем, что большинство желавших уйти с рынка компаний продолжили в том или ином виде работу, не допустив значительных сокращений, то влияние других шоков на рынок труда интересно для изучения, так как может способствовать выработке мер макроэкономической политики, в том числе для минимизации последствий кризисов. В данной работе рассматривается модель, позволяющая определить изменения показателей безработицы в долгосрочном периоде в ответ на различные эндогенные шоки. Ее результатом становится вывод о том, что в России существует эффект гистерезиса в динамике безработицы. Статья подготовлена в рамках выполнения научно-исследовательской работы государственного задания РАНХиГС при Президенте Российской Федерации.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrey V. Zubarev & Valeriia A. Tadei, 2023. "Проверка Наличия Эффекта Гистерезиса В Динамике Безработицы В России," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 8, pages 12-21, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:ruserr:r2363
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    гистерезис; безработица; капитал; производительность; VECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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