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Имитационная Пространственная Модель Развития Российских Городов

Author

Listed:
  • Kirill V. Rostislav

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Yury Yu. Ponomarev

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Darya M. Radchenko

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

Abstract

В работе представлена имитационная пространственная модель, охватывающая 237 крупных и малых городов в 76 субъектах РФ. Модель описывает динамику численности населения и количества предприятий в городах, а также позволяет строить среднесрочные прогнозы с высокой степенью точности. В работе проверены гипотезы о влиянии на междугородную миграцию и другие социально-экономические процессы, определяющие различия между городами в средней заработной плате, качестве городской среды и других факторах, а также рассмотрены примеры применения модели для оценки социально-экономических эффектов от строительства скоростных дорог (на примере дороги Сочи — Туапсе) и последствий закрытия градообразующих предприятий в нескольких моногородах. Статья подготовлена в рамках выполнения научно-исследовательской работы государственного задания РАНХиГС при Президенте Российской Федерации.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirill V. Rostislav & Yury Yu. Ponomarev & Darya M. Radchenko, 2022. "Имитационная Пространственная Модель Развития Российских Городов," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 5, pages 20-33, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:ruserr:r2242
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    имитационная модель; миграции; города; моногорода; инфраструктурные проекты;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis

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