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Russia’s Fiscal Sustainability. What Bohn’s Test Has Revealed

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  • Boris I. Alekhin

    (Russian State University for the Humanities, Moscow 125993, Russian Federation)

Abstract

Sustainability of Russia’s fiscal policy in 1999–2018 was explored by applying Bohn’s test to 20 annual observations and 79 quarterly observations. Budget policy is sustainable as long as primary surpluses positively and significantly respond to changes in the debt-GDP ratio. The test revealed that in both samples the fiscal reaction is positive and significant for total and external debt ratios, and negative and significant for domestic debt ratio. So, overall Russia’s fiscal policy was sustainable in 1999–2018. Large revenues from oil and gas exports secured a modest budget surplus, on average, over the period, thus reducing the demand for borrowed funds and producing a very low domestic debt ratio. As Bohn notes,“an inefficiently low level of public debt” may explain why the test fails in certain economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Boris I. Alekhin, 2019. "Russia’s Fiscal Sustainability. What Bohn’s Test Has Revealed," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 21-36, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:190502:p:21-36
    DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2019-5-21-36
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Ostry, Jonathan D., 2008. "International evidence on fiscal solvency: Is fiscal policy "responsible"?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1081-1093, September.
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    3. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
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    5. Henning Bohn, 2005. "The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series 1446, CESifo.
    6. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boris I. Alekhin, 2020. "Regional Tax Autonomy and Budget Balances," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 114-127, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    government debt; fiscal policy; fiscal sustainability; Bohn’s test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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