Forecasting Current GDP Dynamics With Google Search Data
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2018-6-83-94
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008.
"Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
- Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H. Small, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H Small, 2007. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 164, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Small, David, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," CEPR Discussion Papers 5178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2011.
"A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 188-205, September.
- Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "A Two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," THEMA Working Papers 2006-23, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00638009, HAL.
- Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00638009, HAL.
- Catherine Doz & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Post-Print hal-00844811, HAL.
- Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Post-Print hal-00638009, HAL.
- Reichlin, Lucrezia & Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico, 2007. "A Two-Step Estimator for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models Based on Kalman Filtering," CEPR Discussion Papers 6043, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sandra Eickmeier & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "How successful are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 237-265.
- Nikolaos Askitas & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2009.
"Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting,"
Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 55(2), pages 107-120.
- Nikos Askitas & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2009. "Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting," RatSWD Research Notes 41, German Data Forum (RatSWD).
- Askitas, Nikos & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2009. "Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting," IZA Discussion Papers 4201, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Nikos Askitas & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2009. "Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 899, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Small, David, 2005.
"Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David H., 2006. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Working Paper Series 633, European Central Bank.
- Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H. Small, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H Small, 2007. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 164, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Jaroslav Pavlicek & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2015.
"Nowcasting Unemployment Rates with Google Searches: Evidence from the Visegrad Group Countries,"
PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-11, May.
- Pavlicek, Jaroslav & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2015. "Nowcasting unemployment rates with Google searches: Evidence from the Visegrad Group countries," FinMaP-Working Papers 34, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
- Pavel Trunin & Mikhail Khromov & Alexandra Bozhechkova & Alexander Deryugin & Marina Turuntseva & Georgy Idrisov & Andrey Kaukin & Yuriy Ponomarev & Olga Berezinskaya & Elena Grishina & Natalia Zubare, 2015. "Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook," Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-Economic Development (In Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 9, pages 1-45, June.
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000.
"The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
- Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Lucrezia Reichlin & Marco Lippi, 2000. "The generalised dynamic factor model: identification and estimation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10143, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- António Rua & Francisco Craveiro Dias, 2014. "Forecasting Portuguese GDP with factor models," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Simeon Vosen & Torsten Schmidt, 2012.
"A monthly consumption indicator for Germany based on Internet search query data,"
Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 683-687, May.
- Vosen, Simeon & Schmidt, Torsten, 2012. "A monthly consumption indicator for Germany based on Internet search query data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 19(7), pages 683-687.
- Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon, 2010. "A monthly consumption indicator for Germany based on internet search query data," Ruhr Economic Papers 208, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
- Mikhail Khromov & Sergey Drobyshevsky & Alexander Knobel & Marina Turuntseva & Kirill Rogov & Georgy Idrisov & Yuriy Ponomarev & Sergey Tsukhlo & Elena Avraamova & Dmitriy Loginov, 2015. "Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook," Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-Economic Development (In Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 10, pages 1-40, June.
- Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2006.
"Are more data always better for factor analysis?,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 169-194, May.
- Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2003. "Are More Data Always Better for Factor Analysis?," NBER Working Papers 9829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:hal:journl:peer-00844811 is not listed on IDEAS
- Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David Small, 2008. "Nowcasting: the real time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6409, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Dias, Francisco & Pinheiro, Maximiano & Rua, António, 2015. "Forecasting Portuguese GDP with factor models: Pre- and post-crisis evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 266-272.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
- Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
- Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Anastasiia Pankratova, 2024. "Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Indicators Using DMA and DMS Methods," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(1), pages 32-52, March.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
- Rusnák, Marek, 2016.
"Nowcasting Czech GDP in real time,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-39.
- Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank.
- Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019.
"Dynamic Factor Models,"
Working Papers
halshs-02262202, HAL.
- Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2020. "Dynamic Factor Models," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-02491811, HAL.
- Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2020. "Dynamic Factor Models," Post-Print halshs-02491811, HAL.
- Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
- Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," PSE Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
- Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2010.
"Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 132-144.
- Barhoumi, K. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?," Working papers 232, Banque de France.
- Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Estimation of Common Factors under Cross-Sectional and Temporal Aggregation Constraints: Nowcasting Monthly GDP and its Main Components," MPRA Paper 6860, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Antipa, Pamfili & Barhoumi, Karim & Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012.
"Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models,"
Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 864-878.
- Antipa, P. & Barhoumi, K. & Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Darné, O., 2012. "Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models," Working papers 401, Banque de France.
- Knut Aastveit & Tørres Trovik, 2012.
"Nowcasting norwegian GDP: the role of asset prices in a small open economy,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 95-119, February.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Tørres G. Trovik, 2008. "Nowcasting Norwegian GDP: The role of asset prices in a small open economy," Working Paper 2007/09, Norges Bank.
- Tóth, Peter, 2014.
"Malý dynamický faktorový model na krátkodobé prognózovanie slovenského HDP [A Small Dynamic Factor Model for the Short-Term Forecasting of Slovak GDP],"
MPRA Paper
63713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Tóth, Peter, 2017. "Nowcasting Slovak GDP by a Small Dynamic Factor Model," MPRA Paper 77245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021.
"Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
- Poncela Blanco, Maria Pilar, 2020. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: this is not just another survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 30644, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EstadÃstica.
- Kaufmann, Daniel & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017.
"Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 878-893.
- Daniel Kaufmann & Rolf Scheufele, 2015. "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," KOF Working papers 15-378, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2011.
"A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 188-205, September.
- Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "A Two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," THEMA Working Papers 2006-23, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Post-Print hal-00638009, HAL.
- Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00638009, HAL.
- Catherine Doz & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Post-Print hal-00844811, HAL.
- Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00638009, HAL.
- Reichlin, Lucrezia & Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico, 2007. "A Two-Step Estimator for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models Based on Kalman Filtering," CEPR Discussion Papers 6043, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2016.
"Small- Versus Big-Data Factor Extraction in Dynamic Factor Models: An Empirical Assessment,"
Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 401-434,
Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Poncela, Pilar, 2015. "Small versus big-data factor extraction in Dynamic Factor Models: An empirical assessment," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1502, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EstadÃstica.
- Alain Galli, 2018.
"Which Indicators Matter? Analyzing the Swiss Business Cycle Using a Large-Scale Mixed-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model,"
Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(2), pages 179-218, November.
- Alain Galli, 2017. "Which indicators matter? Analyzing the Swiss business cycle using a large-scale mixed-frequency dynamic factor model," Working Papers 2017-08, Swiss National Bank.
- Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2014.
"Dynamic factor models: A review of the literature,"
OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(2), pages 73-107.
- Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "Dynamic factor models: A review of the literature," Post-Print hal-01385974, HAL.
- Barhoumi, K. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2013. "Dynamic Factor Models: A review of the Literature ," Working papers 430, Banque de France.
- S. J. Koopman & G. Mesters, 2017.
"Empirical Bayes Methods for Dynamic Factor Models,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(3), pages 486-498, July.
- Siem Jan Koopman & Geert Mesters, 2014. "Empirical Bayes Methods for Dynamic Factor Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-061/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2022.
"A Suggestion For A Dynamic Multifactor Model (Dmfm),"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(6), pages 1423-1443, September.
- Heather D. Gibson & Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2020. "A Suggestion for a Dynamic Multi Factor Model (DMFM)," Working Papers 282, Bank of Greece.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark, 2011. "Dynamic Factor Models," Scholarly Articles 28469541, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- David Havrlant & Peter Tóth & Julia Wörz, 2016. "On the optimal number of indicators – nowcasting GDP growth in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 54-72.
- Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2019.
"Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference of Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models via the EM algorithm,"
Papers
1910.03821, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
- Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2024. "Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference of Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models via the EM algorithm," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-086, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting the French index of industrial production: A comparison from bridge and factor models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2174-2182.
More about this item
Keywords
forecasting; factor models; GDP; nowcasting; search queries; data frequency;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:180607:p:83-94. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gennady Ageev (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frigvru.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.