IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/for/ijafaa/y2012i24p13-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The PollyVote’s Year-Ahead Forecast of the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Graefe
  • Randy Jones
  • Scott Armstrong
  • Alfred Cuzán

Abstract

In 2004, Scott Armstrong, Alfred Cuzán, and Randy Jones launched the PollyVote to see if combining forecasts from different methods could improve the accuracy of election forecasting relative to individual forecasting methods. Scott had previously reported evidence that combining nearly always reduced forecast error below the typical individual method. As you’ll see in this article, Polly has performed up to and perhaps beyond expectations. Now she looks a year ahead (as of this writing) to predict the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. She thinks it will be close. You can read more about the origin and computation of the PollyVote in an article we printed in the very first issue of Foresight: Cuzán and colleagues (2005). Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Graefe & Randy Jones & Scott Armstrong & Alfred Cuzán, 2012. "The PollyVote’s Year-Ahead Forecast of the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 24, pages 13-14, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:24:p:13-14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://foresight.forecasters.org/shop/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2012:i:24:p:13-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael Gilliland (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iiforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.